Advanced Matchup Plays: NFL Week 3

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:14

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day – simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

As I did last season, I’ve tried to go with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

As the season progresses, there will be more data to include with each player. Two games is a small sample size to draw many meaningful conclusions at this point, but that doesn’t mean we can’t use the advanced data to find some good plays.
Here are the picks this week:

Russell Wilson – (QB) Seahawks vs. DEN

Russell Wilson has largely flown under the radar so far through two games and his price across the industry reflects that. Through two games, he is averaging 27 attempts, 197 yards and two touchdowns but hasn’t had to really open the throttle yet. The Seahawks are coming off a tough road loss to the Chargers that was not Wilson’s fault – Seattle only ran 42 plays all game, far below the league average. There are some other underlying metrics that have kept Wilson from recapturing his 2013 glory. His scramble rate through two weeks (4.9% per drop back) is roughly half of what he did last year and most of his throws have been of the safe variety – an aDOT of only 6.7 yards downfield (down from 9.8 last year). That being said his completion percentage has improved and he is already taking about half the sacks he took last year.

This week will be a different story with a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl with Denver traveling to Seattle. We know the game will feature one of the highest totals of the weekend with shootout potential because of the quality of quarterback play. There are not many scenarios that have Wilson throwing less than 30 times. An underrated part of Wilson’s fantasy day will be his scrambling. While he is staying in the pocket more through two games – Denver has allowed Andrew Luck and Alex Smith to combine for 61 yards (24 after contact) and a touchdown on just eight scrambles.

Look for Wilson to involve his top three receivers often in hopes that Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse repeat their strong Super Bowl performances and that Percy Harvin continues to make his presence felt.

Projection:

Ryan Tannehill – (QB) Dolphins vs. KC

Volume, Volume, Volume. Miami ran the fifth most plays (74) in the league last week and through two games only trail Baltimore and Philadelphia for the most snaps (145) through two games. We knew the Dolphins were going to become a more up-tempo team under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and that has happened. The coaching staff has been critical of Tannehill’s play through two games but he gets a blank slate at home against a weaker secondary in Kansas City. Do not be too disappointed in Tannehill’s accuracy problems – so far it falling right in line with his career rate of about 60 percent and he has lost 113 passing yards this year due to dropped passes. It is encouraging to see him taking fewer sacks possibly due to their reshuffled offensive line led by Branden Albert.

As for the home matchup against Kansas City, the Chiefs are reeling after suffering major injury after major injury. It is understandable that Peyton Manning carved them up (242, 3 TD) but Jake Locker looked like an all pro in Week 1 with 266 yards passing and two touchdowns. The top four corners for the Chiefs have allowed a 77% completion percentage for 406 yards (168 YAC) and four touchdowns (all within 12 yards).

The injury to Knowshon Moreno will place a greater emphasis on the passing game and Tannehill will capitalize on the situation.

Projection:

Giovani Bernard – (RB) Bengals vs. TEN

I covered Bernard in this space last week and all he did was finish as the second best running back last week to Darren Sproles of all players. Even with an increased role for rookie Jeremy Hill – Bernard was able to capitalize on the injury to A.J. Green and become the focal part of the offense. He ran the ball 27 times and ran 13 pass routes. His six targets on 13 routes equates to a staggering 46% target rate. The knock on Bernard at this point is his lack of yards per carry through two games. Again, this is a small sample size and it’s not time to hit the panic button yet. In addition, the reports from the coaching staff about Cincinnati’s backfield being a tandem will further suppress the buzz about Bernard. Hill did run well, but this is Bernard’s job until he loses it.
DeMarco Murray shredded this Titans defense on the road to the tune to 29 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown – including 3.0 yards per carry after contact. Bernard is the top offensive weapon for the Bengals with Green out and will have another game where the focus is on the ground game as a slight favorite.

Projection:

Rashad Jennings – (RB) Giants vs. HOU

Jennings is another running back that has not found large running lanes in the Giants first two games but has turned into a volume producer. His 3.2 YPC isn’t anything to write home about nor his 1.9 yards after contact per attempt. He is seeing the majority of the touches for New York, especially in the passing game with a target rate of 27% on pass routes run.
The Houston defense can be run on despite having all-world everything J.J. Watt in the fold. Through two games they are allowing 5.2 YPC (2.3 yards after contact per attempt) and two touchdowns. Both touchdowns came from the one yard line.
We know that Jennings is safe from benching despite fumbling last week because the team went right back to home as their workhorse. The Giants overall struggles will keep Jennings’ ownership level low and the Giants could easily pull the upset at home.

Projection:

Donald Brown – (RB) Chargers at BUF

Donald Brown is probably more famous for his follies as a pass protector for Peyton Manning (“Dammit Donald!”) than he is as a running back. Season-long fantasy players had Brown on their radar late in their drafts because of Ryan Mathews’ propensity to get hurt. Lo and behold, Brown is already getting his shot in Week 3. Per Mike Clay of PFF, Brown played 10 of 13 snaps once Mathews left the game in front of Danny Woodhead. Given the run-heavy nature of the Chargers offense – Brown is going to get the ball and he is extremely cheap across the industry.

Buffalo has a middle of the pack run defense at the moment; however, the Chargers showed us last week that they are capable of playing keep away. Brown does have some ability as a feature back as he displayed in spurts last year – so based on volume alone he should hit value as a near minimum salary play.

Projection:

Knile Davis – (RB) Chiefs at MIA

The running theme here is the next man up. Davis fits the mold after Jamaal Charles left the game last week with a high ankle sprain and nearly brought the Chiefs back to victory. Davis has always been a physical specimen and this is another opportunity to show what he could do. Per Rotoworld, in games that Davis has filled in for Charles, he has averaged 97 total yards and scored 6 touchdowns in three plus games.

His heavy usage in the passing game this year (23% target rate) bodes well for this week if Kansas City struggles on the road. The Chiefs do not have anyone else to step up so based on volume alone Davis will pay off his mid salary.

Projection:

Percy Harvin – (WR) Seahawks vs. DEN

As I mentioned above with Russell Wilson, the Seattle passing attack will be in for a big day when they face off against Denver at home this week. Harvin is coming off a poor receiving day due to the lack of plays the Seahawks ran as they lost the game and the time of possession battle. His questionable 51-yard touchdown run saved his fantasy day regardless.

We should see a similar usage for Harvin this week that matches his Week 1 role (7 targets, 4 rushes). He is best used when he lines up around the formation in different spots like running back (8%) or on the outside (12%) but most of his time is from the slot (80%). That puts him in a matchup with rookie Bradley Roby in the slot for a big fantasy output. The Broncos first round pick has struggled in coverage through two games, allowing a 72% completion percentage for 143 yards (54 YAC).

Harvin’s lack of involvement last week has skewed his small sample size (1 target on 19 routes) but his Week 1 target rate of 35% is more in line of what we can expect.

Projection:

Demaryius Thomas – (WR) Broncos at SEA

This appears to be a tough matchup on the surface for Demaryius Thomas and it may not make sense to pay his salary on Fanduel (2nd highest). However, on some sites that are weighing more of early 2014 results – Thomas is vastly underpriced and a screaming bargain. We know that Thomas is an elite wide receiver and you do not need me to tell you that. We just need to worry about Richard Sherman in coverage.

Lucky for us, Richard Sherman has played 88% of snaps so far this season at left cornerback. Without much variation in his assignments, it is easy to scheme around him – especially with a quarterback like Manning. The Chargers didn’t really expose Sherman last week, they were just able to scheme around him and despite giving up his first receptions of the year in coverage (4 receptions for 54 yards) there were no big plays in front of him. We can expect Thomas to move around the formation this game like he has all season. He has played the three receiver positions almost equally (30% LWR, 30% slot, 35% RWR) but that has varied greatly in each game. Last week Thomas was on the right side 48% of the time last week after just 26% in Week 1. Having Wes Welker back should open things up for Thomas again.

We could see a similar output for Thomas that we saw in the Super Bowl. He caught 13 passes on 18 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. Sherman limited him to just one catch for four yards when he had Thomas in coverage.

Projection:

Brian Quick – (WR) Rams vs. DAL

Quick makes his second appearance in this space this year after getting a breather in Week 2. He has been a pleasant surprise, but it is time to start taking his early breakout as legitimate now that he has not skipped a beat with two different quarterbacks. His targets have been consistent with nine each week, but it is his target rate per pass route that is putting him at near elite level (34%). His catch rate (78%) and aDOT (12.4) are sustainable as the unquestioned top receiver.

The Cowboys have been tough on opposing wide receivers through two games (19 receptions for 240); though you could argue they haven’t faced a true test yet. The 49ers didn’t need to pass on them in Week 1 and Tennessee couldn’t get out of their own way for most of last week. Quick should see the most of Morris Claiborne who has allowed four catches for 56 yards in two weeks, but did just allow Justin Hunter to catch his lone target against him in coverage for 23 yards. We know that Claiborne has a poor grade at PFF where they are not swayed by the small sample size of targets. Another week of nine targets sets Quick up for another big day. He isn’t the bargain he was two weeks ago, but he is still undervalued.

Projection:

Kelvin Benjamin – (WR) Panthers vs. PIT

There are a few things that will make Benjamin an afterthought for most this week. His box score was unimpressive last week with just two catches (and three drops) on eight targets for 46 yards and suffered a minor knee injury. In addition, per most defense versus position measures – the Steelers have been tough on opposing wide receivers through two weeks. We could argue that they haven’t been tested yet, but there is enough to like with this matchup – especially with Benjamin going up against right cornerback Ike Taylor for at least half the game.

The rookie will bounce back on the national stage Sunday night at his bargain price with a performance more like his debut in Week 1.

Projection:

Jordan Cameron – (TE) Browns vs. BAL

As of press time, it looks like Cameron is going to test out his shoulder versus the Ravens this weekend. He had Jekyll and Hyde matchups with them last year – catching five passes for 95 yards early in the year only to follow that up with a one catch for four yard dud later in the year.

We haven’t seen Cameron operate in this new offense much, but the early returns of what we saw in Week 1 are promising. Despite playing just 19 snaps and 11 pass routes – Brian Hoyer looked his way four times (36%). Last season Cameron was a slot player roughly half the time, it is worth tracking going forward if he will play more of an inline role this year (84% snaps). There isn’t much else more thought that needs to go into this one. Cameron will be the top threat in the passing game and Baltimore has yet to be tested by a top level tight end through two games.

Projection:

Larry Donnell – (TE) Giants vs. HOU

Larry Donnell has such a boring name; it is easy to overlook him. Matthew Freedman of RotoViz has dubbed Donnell as his accountant. Donnell has had an interesting road to NFL fame, but all we really care about is that he is producing an elite clip and no one knows about him.

Through two games, Donnell has a 30% market share of targets on pass routes run with 17 targets and is still underpriced given his under the radar production. He is a large man at six-foot-six with surprising speed and he already has the trust of Eli Manning. Houston has allowed 12 receptions for 121 yards to opposing tight ends through two games and could overlook Donnell this week. At his price, Donnell makes an interesting punt at tight end or even as a flex where available.

Projection: