Advanced Matchup Plays: NFL Week Two

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-09-16 06:23:12

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day – simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

As I did last season, I’ve tried to go with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

Let’s get to it again. As the season progresses, there will be more data to include with each player. Until then, here are my picks for this week:

Robert Griffin III – (QB) Redskins vs. JAX

There will not be many people looking at Griffin after his lackluster debut in Jay Gruden’s new offense. One game is not a large enough sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions even though the narrative coming out of Washington is that coaching staff doesn’t trust the pass protection. First a few things: Griffin was sacked three times (which is in line with his career sack rate of 7.5% per drop back) and he scrambled just once (5% less than his career scramble rate). It is best to chalk Washington’s slow start on offense up to the stout Texans defense. Griffin faced the most pressure of any quarterback last week by a wide margin (53.7% of drop backs). The team combated that pressure from Houston by having Griffin complete 20 of his 20 passes that were under 2.5 seconds in the pocket. Let’s not hold Griffin’s low aDOT (average depth of throw) against him until we have a larger sample size.

Pierre Garcon saw his normal work last week as the possession receiver but because of the pressure Washington faced – they couldn’t throw downfield to DeSean Jackson. Jackson’s farthest target downfield Sunday was 11 yards. That will change this week.

Jacksonville is fresh off a loss at Philadelphia in which they held the lead until their defense blew it late. The Jaguars had a stout run defense with the exception of Darren Sproles’ 49 yard touchdown run and will look to bottle up Alfred Morris. That is going to force the Redskins to test the talented Alan Ball and Dwayne Gratz with Jackson and Garcon. However, Will Blackmon and Winston Guy are a liability in slot coverage and will be tested often. Guy was in coverage on Jeremy Maclin’s 68 yard touchdown last week that was caught 48 yards downfield.

The underrated aspect to Griffin’s large fantasy day is going to be his scrambling ability. Jacksonville pressured Foles 12 times last week with just one scramble. Griffin will capitalize on that.

Projection:

Matt Cassel – (QB) Vikings vs. NE

Matt Cassel gets his opportunity to play his old team for the first time in his career (revenge game?). The former Patriot had a stint in Kansas City before finding a new home as the short term steward of Norv Turner’s offense. Cassel was uber-efficient in Week 1 – taking what they defense gave him and avoided the pressure from the Rams’ impressive front four. We could call his performance game-manager worthy with an aDOT of just 5.1 yards downfield without any mistakes.

The Patriots are slight road favorites so the Vikings will have to put some points on the scoreboard to keep pace. And for all the hype the New England defense received this offseason – they looked rather ordinary against Miami. Even Darrelle Revis had a subpar day by his standards allowing a touchdown to Mike Wallace. It is worth noting that Revis stayed at left cornerback for all but three plays all game.

This will be a tight contest with one of the higher over/unders of Week 2. The Vikings are underrated offense despite the lack of fanfare and Cassel could easily hit three to four times value at the end of the day.

Projection:

Giovani Bernard – (RB) Bengals vs. ATL

Gio Bernard is set for a huge game this week. If you have seen the comments from the coaching staff this week, they are talking about getting the ball to Jeremy Hill more now they are back at home. Hill will be a talented runner in time, but he won’t pose much of a threat to Bernard’s heavy workload. During the preseason, Hill amassed 190 yards rushing – but most of it (113) came prior to contact with wide open holes to run through. This development will push Bernard’s ownership levels down to your benefit.

In poker terms, Bernard has multiple outs to a big week. The Bengals are favored at home against a team that was just shredded on the ground in their own stadium. That would give Bernard 14-20 carries even if Hill stole several. Otherwise, if the game turns into a shootout – Bernard is the primary passing down back and would amass plenty of receptions. The Falcons surrendered 139 yards (5.0 YPC) to the Saints last week with 58 yards of those yards coming after contact. That sounds like music to Bernard’s ears.

Projection:

DeMarco Murray – (RB) Cowboys at TEN

If the Cowboys’ defense is going to be as bad as they looked in Week 1, Dallas is going to need DeMarco Murray to help sustain scoring drives to give the defense a breather all year long. Murray had a banner day against the vaunted but vulnerable 49ers defense with 143 combined yards and a touchdown.

Part of the reason Murray had so much success was the draws and alleys the 49ers gave them with a healthy lead. On 10 of Murray’s 22 carries – he faced just six defenders in the box for a healthy 44 yards and a touchdown. That is going to be a common theme this year that will repeat itself again this week. With most DFS players salivating at the thought of stacking up Locker and Hunter, Murray is the contrarian hedge. Much like Bernard before, Murray could be a key cog in a road upset or he will be the centerpiece of another failed comeback attempt with draw plays and screens galore.

As you can see from our snap count tool, Murray took 88 percent of the team snaps last week. Heavy usage, no competition and the likelihood of garbage time – sign me up.

Projection:

Stevan Ridley – (RB) Patriots at MIN

No one is going to be looking at Ridley this week after a subpar start to the season at Miami. The buzz around the Patriots is that the team wants to give Shane Vereen more work going forward. The game script and game plan varies from week to week and this looks like a week the Patriots need to grind out the clock with the second half lead.

Even as recently as last season, Ridley had a four game stretch of domination in Weeks 6-9 where he totaled 340 yards rushing and six touchdowns. He could be the Mark Ingram of Week 2.

Projection:

Doug Martin – (RB) Buccaneers vs. STL

Speaking of slow starters – Doug Martin ran into a brick wall against Carolina. His 16 combined yards barely registered on the fantasy scale and even left the game with a minor knee injury. So as the common theme prevails this week, we are going to invest when others are fearful.

Why are we not scared? Well, for one, the Rams defense is not going to be as good as we first thought and now they are missing Chris Long for 8-10 weeks. St. Louis has depth on their defensive line but Long is not an easily replaceable player. Last week the Rams missed 12 tackles and allowed 188 yards rushing (121 if you remove the 67-yard TD run from Patterson). Not that Martin is comparable to Adrian Peterson, but a solid day awaits him at a reasonable cost.

Projection:

Hakeem Nicks – (WR) Colts vs. PHI

Reggie Wayne will be the better cash game play this weekend but Hakeem Nicks is going to be the better tournament play. We saw on Sunday night how the Colts’ offensive depth chart could unfold this year.

Nicks caught 16 passes for 193 yards in two games against Philadelphia last season – mostly with Cary Williams (RCB) lined up against him at split end. This is the same Cary Williams that made a name out of Allen Hurns (two catches for 80 yards and a touchdown) last week. Despite changing teams, Nicks is taking the majority of the snaps at LWR with Reggie Wayne working the slot. A rematch of this pairing is advantage Nicks.

Projection:

Vincent Jackson – (WR) Buccaneers vs. STL

There is some positive regression coming for Vincent Jackson. His salary has either remained the same or taken a tumble with a sub-par Week 1 outing with four catches for 36 yards against a tough Carolina defense. Jackson was targeted nine times and did not have a red zone look. We know that Jackson will rebound with his catch rate and have plenty of red zone looks beginning as early as this week.

Josh McCown also makes for a sneaky play if you think the Buccaneers will have no issues dispatching the Rams. Against a slightly similar Rams secondary, Jackson caught five passes for 98 in Week 16 last year.

Projection:

Jordy Nelson – (WR) Packers vs. NYJ

Aaron Rodger’s avoidance of Richard Sherman last week led to an abnormally high number of targets for Jordy Nelson. He had a staggering target rate of 40 percent on pass routes run. Those are elite level numbers that are not sustainable over a full season, but helps show the high ceiling that Nelson has in any given week.

While the Packers are favored at home this weekend, the stout New York defensive line could pose problems to get Eddie Lacy with many open running lanes. That could force the Packers to pass more often than we would think as a favorite with a moderate game total. Even if Dee Milliner returns from a high ankle sprain this week, neither he nor Antonio Allen should pose much of a challenge for Nelson.

Projection:

Greg Jennings – (WR) Vikings vs. NE

Greg Jennings makes another fine under the radar play this week. Most people will be enamored with Cordarrelle Patterson’s big play upside and worried about Revis Island. While Jennings and Patterson handled most of the duties on the outside, Norv Turner’s base offense has a lot of movement and shifts to create mismatches. Turner used this to his advantage to put Jennings in the left slot more than the right (17 of 23 slot snaps) to help avoid Janoris Jenkins at RCB.

If Bill Belichick employs a similar defense to what he used in Week 1 (highly unlikely), then Revis would remain on the left side (95% snaps last week) and Alfonzo Dennard on the right (86%). If the Vikings approach the game plan with a similar approach – Jennings will see more of Kyle Arrington in the left slot than he would on Revis on the right. Given Jennings’ surprising effectiveness in the red zone as a member of team small receiver, he could have a similarly good fantasy day as he did in Week 1. He makes an interesting GPP pairing with Cassel if you believe the Vikings will have to keep pace with the Patriots on the scoreboard.

Projection:

Travis Kelce – (TE) Chiefs at DEN

Travis Kelce was primed to be this year’s version of Zach Sudfeld based on an impressive preseason and an unknown role in the Chiefs’ offense. Fast forward a week and we see that Kelce only played 17 snaps (14 pass routes run) in a game that the Chiefs could have used an offensive weapon to help Alex Smith. We already have head coach Andy Reid taking some of the blame for not playing him more – so there is that.

The Chiefs find themselves as a huge underdog on the road in a game with one of the highest projected totals of the weekend. Smith will deserve merit at quarterback, but Kelce may be the best way to arbitrage the situation to gain lots of cheap fantasy points in a comeback attempt. Even if Kelce is able to play half the snaps in a passing role – it would be a huge boost to his fantasy value. He was beastly in a small sample size last week. He only caught three of five passes for 49 yards, but was targeted at a 36% percent clip when running a pass route. That is an elite level measure and would extrapolate to a bigger role when given the opportunity.

Projection:

Jason Witten – (TE) Cowboys at TEN

Jason Witten was supposed to be the safe, slam dunk option at tight end last week. At home against a defense missing several key contributors, including linebacker NaVorro Bowman, in a game in which Dallas was going to need to pass a lot to stay in the game. The 49ers used a combination of Patrick Willis and Antoine Bethea to neutralize Witten and forced the secondary options to beat them.

Witten will bounce back in a home-coming of sorts as he returns to the state where he played college football. The role was there for him to succeed last week and even got two red zone targets but we can chalk it up to variance. Last week the Chiefs exploited Kamerion Wimbley and Michael Griffin in coverage with their tight ends – totaling six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. That could be Witten’s receiving line this week.

Projection: