Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1

by Bryan Fontaine (rookieblitz) Last Updated 2014-09-08 17:14:17

Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1

Welcome back Grinders!

I am back this season to bring you my recommendations of players that primed for big performances each week when we look deeper at the numbers and trends. I wanted to thank everyone for all the positive feedback last season and let’s win big money like some Grinders did in Week 13 last year.

With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day – simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.

As I did last season, I’ve tried to go with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.

Let’s get to it again. Here are my picks for this week:

Tony Romo – (QB) Cowboys vs. SF

There are plenty of chalk quarterbacks to look at in Week 1, but I am looking squarely at Romo to anchor my lineups this week. I can sum up the narrative version of why Romo if your quarterback this week quite simply: the Cowboys are home underdogs, with the worst defense in the league, and face a brand-name defense missing several key starters due to injury and a revamped secondary.

We won’t end there – so don’t worry. Mike Clay of PFF ran a study this offseason looking at what teams call for plays when leading, trailing or in a tied game. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys were one of the pass-happiest teams in the league last season – ranking 4th overall (66%) and passing even more (73%) when trailing:

We already know Vegas expects a high-scoring affair with the 49ers favored to win on the road. The 49ers will not have the services of NaVorro Bowman, Glenn Dorsey and Aldon Smith on defense which will limit the pass rush – putting a strain on the reworked secondary. The secondary does not look as imposing when using Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Safeties Reid (17) and Bethea (50) form a new tandem while cornerbacks Brock (14), Culliver (ACL, 29 in 2012) and Cook (94) will be put to the test.

While the Cowboys’ defense is going to be shredded all day long – the offense will keep it close. I would not be afraid to pair Romo and Dez Bryant (more on him later) in cash games and GPP’s.
Projection:

Geno Smith – (QB) Jets vs. OAK

Now we get to the off the radar picks at quarterback. Geno Smith had a rocky rookie season with Jekyll and Hyde production every other week until he hit his stride in December with some big fantasy outputs. The main catalyst for his turnaround was his scrambling ability – over his final four starts of the year he averaged eight carries for 47 yards and a touchdown each week. The preseason doesn’t matter normally, but we saw this scramble rate (13% of drop backs) trend continue this summer. Smith had five scrambles (and three designed runs) for 47 yards and a touchdown. Sign me up.

Smith’s improvements have been well noted in the media and it bore out in his preseason accuracy as well. His completion percentage was 12 points higher than his rookie year while making the same throws downfield (8.9 average depth of throw, or aDOT). So we know that Smith is flying under the radar with a cheap salary this week and most of the fantasy world focused on the big names. Most will not give credit to the massive upgrade Eric Decker provides the receiving corps (more on him later) and the dual threat that Smith has become. Oh, and the Raiders ranked as a bottom five defense against opposing quarterbacks last year. While Oakland did address several defensive needs through free agency – their secondary remains full of question marks and will be placed in bad field position by a rookie quarterback starting the game on the road.

Ryan Tannehill – (QB) Dolphins vs. NE

Tannehill marks the first contrarian, GPP-only player on this list. His positives just outweigh the negatives in this tough home matchup against New England to merit consideration.

A common theme here so far has been quarterbacks that are home underdogs. The Patriots are moderate favorites but historically have struggled playing in Miami under Bill Belichick. If we go under the assumption that Miami will likely be playing from behind, then we know they will have to throw more often than they would like to. New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is a graduate of the Chip Kelly School of Geniuses and will keep an up tempo approach. That could cause substitution problems for the Patriots and should help the Dolphins keep Mike Wallace away from Darrelle Revis as much as possible. Also, the rebuilt offensive line will help keep Tannehill upright against the Patriots’ pass rush.

Darrelle Revis is the real sticking point to this recommendation – he’s that good. However, if the Dolphins can utilize their offensive weapons against the Patriots’ more-susceptible corners in Dennard, Arrington and Ryan – a repeat performance of Tannehill’s Week 15 (312 yards, 3 TD) is among many possible outcomes.

LeSean McCoy – (RB) Eagles vs. JAX

McCoy is a chalk play this week, but it is vital to squeeze him into your lineup. He is setup to finish as the top runner this weekend as a heavy home favorite with the largest spread in a run-first offense. We know that Chip Kelly runs an up-tempo attack, and as Pat Thorman of PFF explained this summer, teams can expect to see more snaps on offense as their defense improves. If it sounds simple, it is because it is. The Eagles will give up less soul-crushing drives on defense and their offense won’t have to score so quickly just to keep pace. What this means for McCoy this week is he could very well see more snaps than we are anticipating.

The Jaguars’ defense will be improved over 2013 based on their free agent additions but they still lack quality depth across the board. If the Eagles can turn the game into a track meet, they will win every time. Don’t be worried about the presence of Darren Sproles eating away at touches for McCoy – there will be plenty to go around. During the preseason, both players had an identical target rate per pass route run of 21%. We shouldn’t assume that Sproles will be used exactly like he was in New Orleans, because at least the preseason bore that out differently. Sproles took 100% of his snaps as a traditional running back, whereas he was used in the slot and split out wide often before. He’s more of a traditional backup despite his diminutive size.

Fire up McCoy and don’t look back.

Montee Ball – (RB) Broncos vs. IND

Don’t look now, but Peyton Manning has a new feature back with the departure of Knowshon Moreno to Miami. An offseason appendectomy procedure limited his preseason to just 10 snaps to get ready for the season opener. We know the biggest way to Manning’s heart as a running back is to keep him upright in pass protection. Ball did not pass block this preseason and we know based on his rookie year that he needs to improvement in that area.

This home game against Indianapolis has one of the highest over-unders of the weekend – but I get the sense the running game will be more of a focus than we expect based on last year’s record-setting offense. Manning is another year older and will be down a trusted weapon (Welker). The threat of Manning carving up his old team’s secondary will create favorable run conditions with less players in the box. Ball excelled in a limited role last season with 2.1 yards per carry before he was touched by a defender. Those wide-open holes will be there this week too.

Rolling Ball in this contest isn’t just a play on words; it should be a winning strategy.

Andre Ellington – (RB) Cardinals vs. SD

We heard all offseason that Ellington would be a three-down this year and most people wrote it off as coach-speak. Well, in another case of the preseason mattering – the Cardinals trotted out Ellington for all but three snaps with their first team offense in the third preseason game. Based on this information it is safe to roll out Ellington this week and we will care if he breaks down later in the season at 199 pounds another time. More encouraging is that he was shifted to more of a traditional running back this preseason versus the versatility he displayed last year:

The coaching staff believes that Ellington can be their version of Jamaal Charles – a player with a similar skill set but a much larger track record of success at the NFL level. Based on his current salary across the industry, that is a huge win for us until that sky rockets.
The matchup against San Diego sets up a positive game script for Ellington. The game could very well exceed the early expectations that Vegas had for the scoring on both sides and there are multiple outs for Ellington to be successful. If the Cardinals can sustain drives, he will get an ample amount of carries and if the game turns into a shootout – Ellington has the pass-catching prowess to save his day in PPR heavy sites. I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as a RB2 for a GPP squad or as a flex in a cash game.

Frank Gore – (RB) 49ers at DAL

I couldn’t go without mentioning Gore here. This is about as close to a dream matchup as he will have all season. We don’t need advanced metrics to know that Dallas has a historically bad defense. Carlos Hyde could get mixed in late but be sure to pump the breaks on his 96 yards (5.6 YPC) from the preseason. Hyde had 66 of his 96 rushing yards (3.9) before he saw any contact from a defender. He could have driven a Mac truck through those holes.
Keep it simple. Gore’s early demise is exaggerated and we only care about this week anyways.

Danny Woodhead – (RB) Chargers at ARI

Don’t forget about Woodhead if you need a PPR punt play this week. Based on his preseason usage, his role is going to be exactly the same as it was last year. It’s rare we can say that about a specialized role player like Woodhead but his pass catching prowess on third downs makes it reasonable for him hit three times salary with a longer screen pass. As far as punt plays go – Woodhead will be under-owned based on the presence of Donald Brown in the fold. He’s the clear third running back on the depth chart.

Dez Bryant – (WR) Cowboys vs. SF

My earlier exuberance towards Tony Romo applies to Dez Bryant as well. Bryant won’t get as many looks this week because of the 49ers’ status as a brand name defense to avoid. The four primary corners tasked with keeping Bryant in check may not be up to the task if San Francisco can’t muster up a pass rush to speed up Romo’s decisions. As mentioned previously, this group of corners is solid but not clear standouts:

49ers Corners versus Wide Receivers – 2013

If Bryant continues to spend the majority of his time at split end like he did in the preseason, he can expect to test Culliver’s rebuilt ACL early and often.

The 49ers could decide to double Bryant the entire game, but then Terrance Williams and Jason Witten would take them to task instead. Plus, Bryant is one of the rare players in the NFL that can still beat double teams. I see several scenarios where Bryant finishes as the top wideout this weekend.

Eric Decker – (WR) Jets vs. OAK

If there was one player I want on every roster I create this weekend – it’s Eric Decker. I’m drinking the Kool-Aid on his impact to the Jets passing attack and I’ve already mentioned how Geno Smith is undervalued and underappreciated. On the surface, going from catching passes from Peyton Manning to Smith is going to be a downgrade any way you slice it, but it’s not nearly as bad as it seems. Smith’s improved accuracy and his propensity to look Decker’s way often in the preseason bodes well for him to shatter early expectations.
If we conservatively pencil Smith in for 30 passing attempts this week, based on the rest of the New York roster, Decker is looking at least 10 targets as a floor and will be the primary red zone target. Without D.J. Hayden, Oakland does not have an answer for Decker’s size and he will be able to slowly rack up a big PPR day by taking what the Oakland defense gives him. Decker makes an excellent GPP pairing with Smith but is safe enough to deploy in cash games as well because of his high floor.

Emmanuel Sanders – (WR) Broncos vs. IND

Based on his price across the industry, Sanders is as close to a must play this weekend as you are going to find. One could have made the argument that even with Welker in the fold against Indianapolis – Sanders would have deserved flex consideration. While most are down on Sanders’ talent level and the fact that he isn’t a physically imposing player, he’s meshed quickly with Manning to no one surprise.

Although it is just preseason and should be taken with a grain of salt, the Broncos appear to view Sanders much differently than the Steelers did. His aDOT of 23.4 (albeit on just 8 targets) is markedly higher than his career rate of 11.9 the last three years. If you are expecting Sanders to be an underneath dink and dunk receiver, you would be mistaken. He’s four inches shorter than Decker is but is plugged into his old role essentially.

So what does that all matter to this week? Well in Week 7 last year, Vontae Davis limited Demaryius Thomas to one catch for eight yards on five targets. Thomas eventually picked on the other defensive backs to finish with a respectable 4-82-1 final stat line at the end of the day. If history repeats part of itself on Sunday night, Sanders will be the beneficiary of the extra work coming his way. He is better value proposition than Thomas (and Manning for that matter) and is one of the most cost effective ways to get exposure to the Broncos’ passing attack.

Mike Wallace – (WR) Dolphins vs. NE

This one is completely crazy if you follow rational logic, but it could also be crazy enough to pay off too. Obviously the main concern for Mike Wallace is Revis Island, and Revis’ propensity to shadow top receivers. I mentioned while talking about Tannehill that the up tempo offense for Miami could create opportunities to get Wallace in space. Just to show how obscure this pick is, this is how Wallace fared against Revis in Week 10 last season:

Mike Wallace vs. Darrelle Revis – Week 10, 2013

This could be considered the definition of insanity. Other than the two deep shots Miami took that didn’t connect, Revis clamped down on the passes fewer than 12 yards about as well as anyone could. The Dolphins didn’t even bother to move Wallace from flanker against Revis – though if you believe reports from last year, Wallace was struggling to learn the different receiver positions in Mike Sherman’s offense.

If Tannehill and Wallace connect for a long touchdown, all this hand wringing about Revis will have been for naught. I wouldn’t anchor my team with either Wallace or Tannehill but they make a sneaky stack on a large field tournament.

Brian Quick – (WR) Rams vs. MIN

Full disclaimer: I may be Brian Quick’s number one fan. I thought he was primed to break out in 2013 and my Twitter followers (follow me at @Bryan_Fontaine) know that I’ll retweet any shred of Quick news – good or bad.

That being said, he is criminally underpriced this week in a home matchup with Minnesota. His salary seems to fit in nicely when trying to load up on some higher stud salaries and the payoff at three times value is quite reasonable. He’s locked in as the starting flanker and several times this preseason showed why he was the first pick of the second round in 2012. His usage rates back up the hype, with his target per pass route run rate and catch rate both increasing 10% from his 2013 campaign. The switch from Sam Bradford to Shaun Hill is negligible for this week.

It’s a low risk, high reward proposition and he may reward us with a red zone touchdown. Sign me up.

Zach Ertz – (TE) Eagles vs. JAX

Zach Ertz picked up right where he left off last season this summer and is poised to assume a larger role in the Eagles’ passing attack. We’ve seen already this preseason how much of a weapon he can be and it is encouraging to see him play more of an inline role (61%) than he did at any point last season. Do not get caught up too much in the snap counts of both Ertz and Brent Celek – they are going to see time on the field together a lot this year but Ertz is the clear receiving option.

While Nick Foles is not likely to throw the football all over the yard against Jacksonville, the success of the running game is going to create prime red zone opportunities and one could argue that Ertz is already their best option to catch touchdowns.

Antonio Gates – (TE) Chargers at ARI

Eventually everyone caught on to the fact that Arizona could not stop opposing tight ends last year and that was a cheap way to punt the position. Not much has changed this year, and their defense looks to be in worse shape with injuries and suspensions. Normally I don’t just rely on worked last year, but in this instance it is worth exploring until we get more of a sample size in 2014.

The exploitable aspect of this matchup is going with the aging Antonio Gates versus the hip upstart in Ladarius Green. Gates will never return to the form he had in his 20’s, but his recent numbers indicate he could have a stretch of games to start the season before his foot gives out where he is fantasy relevant. Out of necessity, the Chargers will run plenty of ‘12’ personnel with Green and Gates on the field at the same time.

Gates is the arbitrage play to take advantage of Arizona this week. In one early GPP lineup I created, I snuck in Gates as a flex spot along with Ertz.