Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
With the growing popularity of daily fantasy football and more new users arriving by the day, simply looking at the basic information and statistics available to everyone will not give you the edge you need to consistently submit winning lineups. Using data from Pro Football Focus provides a unique way to look at player statistics and participation not found anywhere else.
I’ve gone with some less obvious and contrarian picks worth using in large field tournaments with a lower ownership percentage. That doesn’t mean there won’t be chalk players listed – there are still players that need to be in your lineup.
Last week we shined the spotlight on Odell Beckham and Josh Gordon among others and it turned into a profitable week. Let’s keep the ball rolling as we hit the home stretch of the NFL season.
Here are the FanDuel picks this week:
QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, $8,600
Sometimes the picks write themselves. The Jets are horrendous on defense now – like really bad. Kyle Orton just threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns on the road in a neutral site with minimal practice. There was a bigger game to be had, but I could be on tilt still because Robert Woods had the game we expected from rookie Sammy Watkins. As a result, New York is the third worst defense in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks with 256 yards and 2.5 touchdowns each week. Next up for the team that may or may not have quit on Rex Ryan is Ryan Tannehill – who is playing at a high level.
Tannehill went toe to toe with Peyton Manning and came up just short. His four combined touchdown performance helped shed the game manager moniker that has followed him thus far in his career and showed us another level of upside we had yet to see. In his last two games, Tannehill has completed 74 percent of his passes with five touchdown passes and has eight carries for 31 yards and a rushing touchdown. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has added designed runs for Tannehill (six of last 8 rushing attempts) that has helped solidify his weekly floor. Keep it simple this week. Tannehill offers similar upside as the usual suspects this week at a discount. Factor in the Dolphins have more reasons than the Jets to walk away with the win to stay in the playoff hunt and it’s a no brainer.
Ryan Tannehill Projection
Att: 31.4
Comp: 21.4
Yards: 281.0
PTD: 2.4
Int: 0.4
RYards: 21.2
RTD: 0.1
QB Drew Stanton, Arizona Cardinals, $6,500
I mentioned it a few times on Grinders Live Wednesday evening, but I keep getting drawn like a moth to a flame with Drew Stanton. The red flags are everywhere. He had just 149 yards passing with an interception in a tough road environment. That was without Larry Fitzgerald in the lineup, but you get the picture. Recency bias may have you forget that it was two weeks ago that Stanton had 306 yards passing and two touchdowns versus Detroit. The Cardinals hit the road again this week in Atlanta and they should find the confines of the Georgia Dome more comfortable than in Seattle.
Atlanta’s pass defense has rebounded in recent weeks – though they are still a bottom 10 defense against opposing passers. In the last three weeks, they have allowed an average of 305 yards passing and 1.3 touchdowns. Quietly they also are allowing 27 yards rushing in that span, an underrated aspect of Stanton’s game. Three of Stanton’s six scrambles on the season came last week and has an above average scramble rate of 3.6% of all drop backs. Per Pro Football Focus, Stanton decides to scramble the second fastest (4.0 seconds) in the NFL. Oddly enough, he is sandwiched between Brady (fastest) and Peyton Manning. Those guys tend to make good quick decisions. It would also be in Stanton’s best interest to concentrate on quick throws to keep the chains moving. His accuracy with less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket is 57.6% and drops to 37.5% when he stays in the pocket longer than 2.5 seconds. Make no mistake – Stanton is a tournament special that could return three to four times his salary depending on the different sites across the industry. There is a good chance he throws a long touchdown to John Brown this week (more on him later).
Drew Stanton Projection
Att: 30.7
Comp: 20.3
Yards: 264.2
PTD: 2.1
Int: 0.4
RYards: 26.5
RTD: 0.3
RB Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers, $9,200
Surveying the running back player pool this weekend – Le’Veon Bell stands above the rest. He’s likely to end the weekend as the top scorer at the position and can be played regardless of his ownership level across the industry. He’s that good, and the Saints run defense is so bad that they made Justin Forsett look like a Hall of Famer. Slight exaggeration, but you get the idea. Rob Ryan’s defense is not tackling well, is taking bad angles and basically over-pursuing most plays. Now we get to see them play outdoors in a tough environment against a fresh running back coming off the bye, and his most recent performance included 222 total yards and a touchdown.
So how bad is the Saints’ run defense? They have given up a total of 545 rushing yards in their last three games. In that span they have given up four rushing touchdowns, 5.5 yards per carry, 3.2 yards after contact per attempt and have missed a tackle on 14% of the rushing attempts they have faced. That’s bad. It’s rare that a player has one of the highest floors and ceilings in a given week, so Bell is worth paying up for – even if he won’t be contrarian in any way.
Le’Veon Bell Projection
Car: 19.6
Yards: 101.6
TD: 1.4
Rec: 3.1
ReYards: 32.6
ReTD: 0.2
RB C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos, $7,800
Sometimes it’s better to be late to a party than not show up at all. C.J. Anderson, the undrafted running back from Cal, may be the answer to Denver’s running back problem this season. According to PFF, Anderson has graded out as the top running back the past three weeks by a wide margin. It is his versatility in the passing game and running game that had added another element to Denver’s offense it hasn’t had since Knowshon Moreno was the jack of all trades last season. Like Bell, Anderson is coming off a monster fantasy day with 31 touches for 195 yards and a touchdown against a tough Miami defense. His price tag has risen dramatically (up $600 on FanDuel) to account for his upside.
The Chiefs’ run defense has fallen off recently after a strong start to the season. In the last three weeks they are allowing opposing runners to gain 140 yards rushing and 0.7 touchdowns. Factor in an average of five catches for 40 yards and this contest sets up nicely for Mr. Anderson. Another feather in Anderson’s cap: he is a true three-down player. He has taken 91% of the snaps and handled 84% of the team’s rushing attempts the past two weeks. Fire him up this week.
C.J. Anderson Projection
Car: 19.1
Yards: 92.3
TD: 0.5
Rec: 5.1
ReYards: 39.1
ReTD: 0.1
RB Rashad Jennings, New York Giants, $7,100
Revenge game! Rashad Jennings spent the first four years of his career (including an IR season) with Jacksonville before landing with Oakland last year. It isn’t really a revenge game for Jennings, but at least we have your attention now. The Giants are road favorites against a Jacksonville team that kept the Colts under wraps last week. That should tell us to expect a closer contest that will require the Giants to rely on Jennings heavily – either in the ground game or through the air. In his two games since returning from injury, Jennings has seen 74% of the snaps at running back, 73% of the Giants’ rushing attempts and 20% of the team targets.
The Jacksonville rush defense continues to be exploited and has gotten worse over the last three weeks. In the last three weeks they have given up an average of 132 yards and a touchdown and an additional 6.5 receptions for 34.5 yards. They just allowed the all-pro combination of Trent Richardson and Boom Herron to run for a combined 107 yards, including 65 yards after contact. Jennings should have no issues contributing at his old stomping grounds regardless of the game script.
Rashad Jennings Projection
Car: 19.2
Yards: 80.4
TD: 1.1
Rec: 3.0
ReYards: 24.7
ReTD: 0.0
RB Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams, $6,000
Remember when Zac Stacy was a thing? I don’t either. The Rams’ latest third-round running back has seen 61% of the snaps and 77% of the rushing attempts in the last two weeks and has been effective despite not finding the end zone. It is clear the team wants to see what they have in Mason. He will continue to see the feature back carries until the team changes their mind again.
Mason’s salary is suppressed across the industry and no one has really accounted for his uptick in usage since he has started each game since Week 9. The running backs that see over 20 touches per week are few and far between – making Mason a bit of an anomaly, a glitch in the Matrix. Oakland is bad against the run and the Rams are surprisingly favored by a touchdown at home. If St. Louis is going to score over 25 points, Mason will be involved heavily. He makes an excellent RB2 this week as a pivot away from some of the mid-tier bargains.
Tre Mason Projection
Car: 19.0
Yards: 85.4
TD: 0.5
Rec: 1.5
ReYards: 14.0
ReTD: 0.0
WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants, $8,500
The Catch. There is no other way to describe it. I haven’t been in awe of an athletic feat on a football field like that in a long time. Odell Beckham became a household name overnight – and that isn’t necessarily a good thing for the daily fantasy football community. His ownership will be the highest it has ever been this year at Jacksonville and I’m okay with that. Beckham made this space last week and I cannot make a good argument to fade him in this column. I’ve been late to the Beckham party, because I couldn’t reconcile why he didn’t score more touchdowns in the SEC, but he’s arguably one of the most exciting players in the NFL as a rookie. He is so fluid and athletic in and out of his breaks – he reminds me of an early career Greg Jennings on steroids, only quicker.
Same theme resonates here – Jacksonville doesn’t have the players to field a competitive defense. Allowing an average of 12 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown to opposing wideouts is a result of that. So, Beckham has that going for him, and he also gets a plus matchup against cornerback Dwayne Gratz. Gratz has allowed 11 catches for 254 yards and three touchdowns in the last three weeks – including long touchdowns to Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton. Beckham will see the most of him, though he will also see Demetrius McCray (7 for 59) and slot corner Aaron Colvin. It should not shock us to see Beckham be the third wide receiver in a row to score a 60-yard touchdown against Jacksonville.
Odell Beckham Jr. Projection
Rec: 7.3
ReYards: 100.5
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 1.6
TD: 0.0
WR Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins, $7,100
Jarvis Landry has received plenty of praise recently for his fantasy production, but Mike Wallace is still the top downfield receiver in Miami. Landry’s aDOT is only 5.3 yards downfield and he works from the slot on over 78% of his snaps. Wallace on the other hand has an aDOT of 14.8. His aDOT is down about 1.6 yards from 2013 as we start to see the sample size grow for his role in Lazor’s offense. He’s due for a breakout game in terms of yardage, and the Jets offer up that opportunity.
Wallace’s likely matchup will be against Phillip Adams and Darrin Walls on the outside. Adams has allowed 19.1 yards per reception and three touchdowns this year in limited work – including an 80-yard touchdown to Martavis Bryant. Walls returned from injury last week and allowed 16.4 yards per reception and four touchdowns, three of which have been over 20 yards. Wallace is another candidate for a long touchdown this week.
Mike Wallace Projection
Rec: 5.3
ReYards: 82.7
ReTD: 0.6
RuYards: 0.3
TD: 0.0
WR John Brown, Arizona Cardinals, $6,500
If Drew Stanton is going to be worthy of a start in tournament formats, then one of his receivers is going to need to have a big day as well. Enter John Brown. Brown was still able to be productive last week in the debacle in Seattle with three catches for 61 yards and will be the de facto top passing option this week. He has accounted for a 21% market share of the team targets, including 26% two weeks ago, despite playing only about 72% of the team’s offensive snaps. His knack for making a big play is well documented. He has caught four of his five touchdowns with an aDOT of 36.0 yards downfield – all in the third or fourth quarter.
Atlanta continues to be one of the most favorable matchups for opposing wide receivers. They have been a bottom five defense, allowing 12 catches for 200 yards and a touchdown each week,and have gotten worse in the last three weeks – upping that to an average of 16 receptions for 234 yards and a touchdown. Bruce Arians uses Brown much like he did T.Y. Hilton in Indianapolis to exploit matchups. Brown’s snap usage (LWR 36%, slot 38%, RWR 26%) means he could see all three of the top Atlanta cornerbacks. In the last three games Desmond Trufant (16-203-1), Robert McClain (7-115-1) and slot corner Josh Wilson (5-96) have all struggled – presenting a great opportunity for Brown to add another touchdown or more to his season total.
John Brown Projection
Rec: 5.3
ReYards: 87.8
ReTD: 0.7
RuYards: 0.8
TD: 0.0
WR Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,000
Martavis Bryant is a player most will overlook because of his higher salary and recency bias. The Steelers are coming off their bye week, and in Week 11 Bryant only caught two passes for 11 yards. That ended his streak of scoring at least one touchdown in the four prior games (he has six touchdowns in five games played). If you are going to take a flier, it is best to do it against defenses struggling like the Saints are. Bryant hasn’t been a full-time player this year with only 46% of the snaps in the games he has played – yet he has a target rate on pass routes run (28%) that rivals some of the top wide receivers in the game. Even his teammate Antonio Brown is targeted less (27%) on the patterns he runs. That efficiency has helped Bryant retain value, and he is the type of contrarian play needed to win a large field tournament, because he’ll get overlooked due to his lack of snaps.
It appears he will see Keenan Lewis and Brian Dixon on the outside this week. Lewis has struggled with injuries in recent weeks and Dixon has been a part-time player himself. In the last three games, Lewis has allowed a quarterback rating of 119.8 in coverage with seven catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns. It is surprising he has only seen 10 targets come his way in that span. Dixon will see an uptick in snaps this week and he was responsible for Steve Smith Sr. returning to fantasy relevance on Monday night – allowing his 15-yard touchdown. Bryant makes it four-for-four recommendations that are non-traditional candidates to find the end zone from outside 20 yards.
Martavis Bryant Projection
Rec: 3.6
ReYards: 73.2
ReTD: 1.1
RuYards: 0.2
TD: 0.0
TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs, $5,300
Has Andy Reid finally seen the light? God, I hope so. Travis Kelce has played 95% of the snaps the last two weeks and accounted for a 22% market share of Alex Smith’s targets. The box score totals have been modest at best (7-104), but his on-field metrics are improving as well. On the season his aDOT is only 6.5 yards downfield, but that has crept up to 9.5 the last two weeks. Not a huge improvement, but it’s a start. We want Kelce to run folks over as Gronk-lite, but we don’t want to rely on that for the main source of his yardage either. His season-long YAC to yards ratio is 60% (!) but that has dropped to 37% the last two weeks – which would make sense with his targets more downfield. It is clear that Dwayne Bowe and company aren’t going to threaten anyone, so it is all the Kelce this week against a defense that struggles to defend the tight end positon.
Denver has been one of the worst teams at stopping opposing tight ends this year. They have made minor improvements the past three weeks, but have still allowed an average of 5.9 catches for 58.7 yards and 0.6 touchdowns. In the last three weeks, the murder’s row of Mychal Rivera, Jared Cook, Lance Kendricks and Dion Sims have fared just as well with 5.3 catches for 41.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. Safety T.J. Ward was the biggest culprit in coverage of those three – allowing seven catches for 83 yards and the touchdown to Rivera. This will be the week we’ve been waiting for on Kelce. Matchups and opportunity equals Kelce Smash (doesn’t have the same ring to it as Gronk).
Travis Kelce Projection
Rec: 4.6
ReYards: 52.8
ReTD: 0.6
TE Tim Wright, New England Patriots, $5,400
It’s hard to figure out why Tim Wright is more expensive on FanDuel this week, but I guess six touchdowns and three in the last two weeks will move the needle on his salary. Wright is purely a GPP-only option at this point, because it’s a gamble on how much he sees the field. Wright saw 75% of the snaps against Detroit after seeing just 15% against Indianapolis. Trying to get inside Bill Belichick’s mind will drive anyone crazy. There is an off chance that the game plan this resembles their approach against the Colts, where the Patriots try to exploit the Packers on the ground, but it’s just as likely they use a lot of 12 personnel with Wright exploiting slot cornerback Micah Hyde. Wright was matched up with a slot corner against the Lions on four of his six targets. That was no accident.
If Tom Brady had his choice, I would imagine he would rather have a matchup nightmare on the field like Wright instead of Amendola in the slot. With Rob Gronkowski returning to form as a run blocker since Week 5 – it has increased the on-field flexibility the Patriots have with their formations and personnel. It is worth taking the chance that Wright is a large part of the game plan again.
Tim Wright Projection
Rec: 3.6
ReYards: 46.2
ReTD: 0.8