Defensive Strategies: Part 1
Defensive Strategies: Part 1
When a player’s Defense goes off to the tune of a 20+ points in one game, the player who selected them is sometimes subjected to the scrutiny and accusations of being ‘lucky’. But is this actually the case? Selection of your Defense or Defense/Special Teams is an often overlooked and under-analyzed aspect of Daily Fantasy Sports. If I were to ask a lot of my friends that participate in Daily Fantasy Sports what the defensive scoring system is for their favorite site, they often couldn’t give me the correct answer. Many choose their defenses based on views of the matchup alone, which is not the best approach. There are many stats available for your immediate use that can give you an edge while selecting your Defensive picks.
The major Daily Fantasy Sites use a combination of: Points Allowed, Sacks, Defensive Touchdowns, Special Teams Touchdowns, Interceptions, Fumble Recoveries, and Safeties to produce their Defense/Special Team scoring. You should gain a good understanding of how each of these categories effect the defensive scoring when selecting your lineups, as well as which categories that site has contribute towards scoring. Today we’re going to discuss factors to consider when selecting your defense and a list of resources you can start using. In Part 2 we will do a side-by-side comparison of all Daily Fantasy Sites and their Defense/Special Teams Scoring, and run through some example selection processes. You can easily view a site’s scoring system at any time by visiting their Review Page on RotoGrinders and selecting the Scoring Tab.
Defensive Factors To Consider
I like to use the NFL website’s stat section to look at NFL Defense Stats when doing my weekly projections. It is easy to use and offers a variety of sorting options. If a site uses Special Teams scoring, you can also sort by NFL Kick Return TDs within their stat section. If you are not comfortable judging matchups on your own already, I highly recommend looking at a team’s past stats for some of the categories below before ranking your defensive plays for the week.
- Points Allowed – This is the most important of the categories because all sites use Points Allowed in their scoring. It is also the most consistent category of them all to predict. Points allowed ranges from as low as 12 points allowed per game from the best defenses to 30+ points allowed per game from the worst. If you are not comfortable projecting this stat yourself then another good way to estimate it is by projecting Yards Allowed for that same Defense. There is a very positive correlation between yards allowed and points allowed of defenses – for obvious reasons. The third measure I like to look at, is using the data presented to you from a sportsbook. From a sportsbook you can get the over/under line for a game, and the spread (projected margin of victory). Using these two numbers you can tell what that site projects for each team’s points allowed. For example: Let’s say the Lions vs. the Bucs over/under is set at 40 points, and the Bucs are favored by 7. You can project the Bucs Defense to allow around 16.5 points based on these SportsBook stats, which would equate to 1 fantasy point on average when using FanDuel’s scoring system.
Matchup: | Bucs vs. Lions |
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Over/Under: | 40 Points |
Spread: | -7 Points Favoring the Bucs |
Bucs (Proj.) | 26.5 |
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Lions (Proj.) | 13.5 |
Over/Under (Sum) | 40 |
Spread (Margin of Victory) | Bucs by 7 |
- Sacks – This category is predictable for defenses, but not as much as points allowed is. Teams usually average anywhere from 1-5 sacks per game, and a team averaging an extra sack per game will earn 1 to 2 points more on average than the other team, depending on the site’s scoring method. The important thing to note, is whether or not the site you are playing on uses Sacks for scoring, because many do not.
- Defensive TDs – Defensive TDs are touchdowns scored from Interceptions or Fumbles. While defensive TDs will score you the most points per occurrence, they are very hard to predict because of their low frequency. Last season the most Defensive TDs scored by a team was by the New Orleans Saints, who only scored 8 on the season. Meanwhile there were four teams which had zero throughout the season and the New York Jets D (highly regarded as one of the best defenses in the NFL) had only 2 total; 1 from an interception and 1 from a fumble. The average Defense will only have around 2 TDs from an INT or fumble on the season, which leads to less than 1 point added per game. Due to the high variance nature of this stat category, it really should not influence your decision making too much.
- Special Teams TDs – Special Teams TDs consist of Punt Return, Kick Return, Blocked FG, and Blocked Punt TDs. Special Teams should be viewed very similarly to Defensive TDs, except in rare instances. There are special players that will emerge in the league every now and then, that can dominate punt and kick returns. Devin Hester was an example of this in 2007 when he had 4 return TDs. This year’s strongest returner so far seems to be Leon Washington (2) for the Seattle Seahawks, who in addition to his 2 scores this year, showed strong potential to turn any kickoff return into a TD with the Jets over the past two seasons before getting hurt. A player capable of returning 4 kickoffs for TDs in a season, will boost the average points per game by 1.5 for sites that allow Special Teams Scoring; this could be just the edge you can keep an eye on. However, these types of returners are few and far between, so unless you have someone specifically in mind, then ST-TDs should not take up much of your research time. It is also important to note that blocked punt and blocked FG TDs are extremely hard to predict and should be ignored altogether while researching.
- Interceptions – Interceptions are generally worth two points, and while infrequent, are worth noting. In 2009 the range of Interceptions from Defenses was 8 at the lowest to 30 at the highest, with the median and mode being 15 INTs. The Packers, who had 30 on the season, averaged 2 points more per game than good defenses with only 15 INTs. However, this should be more of a tie-breaking decision than something you come in looking for during your selection process.
- Fumble Recoveries – While real-life defenses take a lot of pride in this category, it should be ignored for fantasy purposes. The top 12 fumble defenses all had between 13 and 15 recoveries on the season – a range this small has relatively no impact when selecting a team for fantasy purposes. If you must look at a stat, you should look at Forced Fumbles (FF) instead of recoveries, as it will be a more consistent reference point, in the same way targets is more accurate than receptions for most Wide Receivers.
- Safeties – Finally, there are safeties. These range anywhere from 2 to 4 points depending on the site. These are the hardest of all to predict. In 2009 there were 21 teams that never recorded a safety, and with the low-scores received, it is best to save your time and not factor in safeties at all when selecting a Defense.
Opponents Factors to Consider
As alluded to earlier, there are other factors to consider beyond just your defenses statistics. Most important is the Defense’s matchup. The following list is what I look at to analyze how good I think a particular matchup will for a Defense on any given week:
- Points Per Game – Looking at the opposing offense’s points scored per game along with your Defensive Points Allowed per game will give you a good gauge as to how to project. A safe starting point is to average the points allowed per game by a defense with the points scored per game by the offense. However, it is important to note the previous matchups in which the offense or defenses accumulated these stats, and then adjust accordingly. For example, if the Jaguars are averaging 25 points per game on offense, and they meet the Cowboys who are allowing 15 points per game on defense, than projecting Jacksonville to score 20 points on the Cowboys is a reasonable starting point. However, if five of the Jaguars first seven games were against weak defenses which allowed a lot of points per game on average, you can skew the projection towards the Cowboys; I would start with around 17 points per game in this case. Using a combination of this method and researching the SportsBooks, will provide you with an accurate starting point for points allowed by a defense – which will then provide you with projected fantasy points to be earned.
- Opposing QB: INTs Thrown – Last season the Chicago, Detroit and Tampa Bay each threw at least 27 interceptions. When you see opposing QBs on a pace for almost 2 picks per game, you should boost your rankings of defensive matchups against those Quarterbacks. Through five games this season, there are already five teams which have allowed at least eight interceptions.
- Injuries and Roster Changes – Any other noteworthy roster changes to the opposing offense should be considered during this research phase. For instance, in week 5 of 2010 when the Bears played the Panthers, you had a matchup with a Rookie QB (Clausen) and a backup QB filling in for a team at the last minute (Collins). Roster changes such as these provide huge value boosts to opposing defenses. This week keep an eye out for the Packers. This offense is usually one you’d want to avoid, but if Aaron Rodgers’ concussion forces him to sit last minute, then Miami’s defense will receive a significant boost against Matt Flynn and the Packers.
Defensive in Nature
A defense should not automatically be the last choice you make, or the second to last choice behind your kicker. It is a good idea to come into the lineup selection process having picked multiple defenses per site you play, per week. That allows you some flexibility with structuring your offensive lineup, while still selecting a top defensive play. There are at least 11 men that contribute towards a fantasy Defense/Special Teams, which helps provide consistency as opposed to an offensive player which relies on fewer teammates to produce every week. However, expect a lot of variance in your projections due to the nature of the statistical categories; defensive plays and statistics simply happen less frequently throughout the season than the categories that go into an offensive player. It is not as easy to predict on one particular day, all of the variables that accumulate points for a fantasy defense as it is for say, a running back averaging 20 attempts per game. However, it is possible to accurately project a Defense/Special Team’s fantasy score over time, and it will give you an edge up on the competition.
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By: Cameron M. – E-Mail