Levitan's Leverage: Week 12
The peaks and valleys of an NFL season are really coming into play now.
The Broncos, on three straight road games, couldn’t even beat the Rams last week. The Chiefs, on a short week and off a win over Seattle, fell to the winless Raiders Thursday night. Before you assume that a player or team is going to perform as expected, be sure the spot is right and there’s no recency bias. Teams primed for a letdown this week (other than the aforementioned Chiefs) include the Titans, Rams and maybe Bucs.
The point of this column is to use the news, snap counts, usage and trends to both be a little contrarian and avoid whiffs. All comments refer to FanDuel pricing.
FADES
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns
I get it, people are excited. But the expectations for Josh Gordon in his 2014 debut have soared out of control. There are three main reasons why I will have no exposure to Gordon against the Falcons this week:
1) Usage: During Gordon’s suspension, he was allowed to lift weights and stay in shape at the Browns facility. He was not allowed to interact with coaches or attend practice. So we have a player that hasn’t practiced in three months, one that is taking contact for the first time since August. The Browns coaches are certainly aware of this, using the term “pitch count” and Mike Pettine even told Ross Tucker about research the team has done regarding higher injury rates after long layoffs. Even though the Browns are fighting for a playoff berth, I’d be surprised if Gordon played on more than 60-70 percent of the snaps. I don’t think Gordon’s performance off a two-game ban last year is a fair comparison.
2) Scheme change: Under OC Norv Turner, the 2013 Browns were the pass-heaviest team in football. This year under OC Kyle Shanahan, they’re the third-most run heavy. Some of that has to do with game flow – the Browns are actually winning games this year, whereas last year they were consistently in catch-up mode. But it also has to do with a general philosophy from Shanahan and Pettine, a disciple of Rex Ryan’s ground-n-pound. I love that Gordon is playing the typically voluminous “X” role for Shanny, but expecting anything near the 11.3 targets he got last year against the Falcons’ bottom-barrel run defense is wishful thinking. I like Isaiah Crowell ($5500) if going after a highly-owned Browns player.
3) Matchup: Yes, the Falcons have the league’s worst pass defense based on yardage allowed. But that’s not Desmond Trufant’s fault. Trufant, who will shadow Gordon Sunday, was PFF’s No. 7 corner last year and their No. 4 corner this year. He’s not Darrelle Revis/Richard Sherman, or even Vontae Davis yet. But citing the Falcons’ awful pass defense isn’t taking into account that Trufant can really, really, really play.
MINI FADES
1. Mike Evans, WR, Bucs
On paper, it’s yet another pristine matchup for eye-opening and physically dominant rookie Mike Evans, who clearly has something special going on with Josh McCown. However, both Evans’ price ($8400) and projected ownership have reached the point where I can’t be on it. Evans has at least seven catches, 124 yards and a touchdown in three straight games – including a 7-209-2 line against the Redskins last week. The Bears are certainly aware of this. I love Evans, but I don’t think he’s Jerry Rice or Randy Moss – the kind of talent you need to have to sustain this massive production for four straight weeks even when the defense knows it’s coming. You guys know by now that I’m never going to be a week late to the party, even if it burns me.
2. Jonas Gray, RB, Patriots
The Lions defense ranks first in rush yards allowed, first in YPC allowed and is tied for second in rush TDs allowed. Owners that chase last week’s 37-201-4 breakout are lighting money on fire as the Patriots project to take a pass-heavy gameplan Sunday. Multiple reliable Patriots beat writers have already speculated this will game figures to be more passing-back Shane Vereen and less big-back Gray.
GPP TWO-MAN STACK
Peyton Manning (off a loss) and Demaryius Thomas
I don’t think a lot of users are going to be on Peyton Manning this week. He’s facing the league’s No. 2 pass defense and might not have Julius Thomas (ankle) or Emmanuel Sanders (concussion). With the Broncos coming off a loss at St. Louis and now playing at home, that makes Peyton a great GPP play – similar to when he faced the Cardinals at home off a loss in Week 5 and went for 479 yards/4 TDs. Here are Peyton’s per-game numbers off a loss as a Bronco (eight games): 28.2-of-42.6, 369.1 yards, 3.7 TDs, 1.2 INTs, 7-1 record. So despite the difficult matchup and hefty pricetag, my No. 1 GPP stack is Peyton and Demaryius Thomas, who will to see extra volume given the injuries to Julius and Sanders. It’s an example of “paying up to be contrarian,” something I’ve been trying to focus on in GPPs.
SITUATIONS TO CAPITALIZE ON
Spot for the Eagles, Mark Sanchez and LeSean McCoy
I talk about “spots” a lot in this column as a way to predict when a team is going to show up big versus when they’ll lay an egg. Recent example of predictable egg-layers included the Steelers sleepwalking through a Week 10 game against the Jets and the Broncos getting beat in St. Louis last week. We saw it again Thursday night as the Chiefs were in a very difficult spot: Off a win over the defending Super Bowl champs, on the road at a division rival desperate for its first win and on an extremely short week.
One team in a difficult spot this week is the Titans, and it’s not just because the Eagles are vastly more talented. The Titans are coming off their Super Bowl, a Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers in which Tennessee played their guts out. Now they have to go on the road on a short week – it’s a “valley” spot off a “peak.” Meanwhile, the Eagles and Mark Sanchez got humiliated at Lambeau last week. They’re set to be uber-focused and “up” for this home game against the Titans. So yes, it’s a great matchup on paper (especially for LeSean McCoy against the league’s No. 31 run defense) in which Vegas projects Philly to score 30 points. But it’s also a great “spot.” That’s a perfect storm, especially when Sanchez ($7500) and McCoy ($7700) are both priced down a bit. Sanchez, Colin Kaepernick ($7300) and Matt Ryan ($7600) are my favorite plays if you’re not paying up at quarterback.
Rashad Jennings’ price depression
Rashad Jennings is a versatile, three-down back averaging 22.4 touches in games he’s been able to finish this season. He costs just $6600. A lot of that has to do with the MCL sprain that cost him five weeks and a somewhat disappointing 18-59-0 line against the Niners in Week 11. But Jennings ran fine in that game, showing no signs of the injury – he just had nowhere to run. That will change this week as he gets a home game against a Dallas no-name defense that is just waiting to get exposed. They rank 27th in YPC allowed (4.44) and are T-22nd in rushing TDs allowed (9) – the offense can’t play keep away forever. Jennings, miles ahead of limited rookie Andre Williams, is an easy cash-game play at his price. Vegas has installed the Giants as mere three-point dogs with a 22-point projection. They’re also finally getting RG Geoff Schwartz, their best offensive lineman, back from a toe injury.
MATCHUPS TO EXPLOIT
Roddy White against Browns corners other than Joe Haden
We’re not breaking any new ground with this one. When we can confidently predict Joe Haden will shadow a receiver, we use the receiver opposite him. That sets up perfectly for Roddy White this week, as Haden will be shadowing Julio Jones, therefore leaving White to go against inconsistent Buster Skrine and UDFA slot man K’Waun Williams. Further boosting White’s matchup is the fact that this game is at home in the dome, where the splits of Matt Ryan have been well documented (home 66.7 completion percentage, 98.3 passer rating, 82:31 TD-to-INT vs. road 61.5 completion percentage, 88:54 TD-to-INT, 85.1 passer rating). White, $7300 this week, is my favorite wideout play under $7500.
Coby Fleener against the Jags
Regular readers of this column know that in my cash games, I almost always spend at tight end for one of the Big Three (Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas). But Coby Fleener certainly is tempting at just $5400 this week in GPPs. Yes, he’s an inefficient and frustrating player, bringing in just 56.9 percent of his career targets and scoring a meager 10 touchdowns in 38 games. However, we saw what his ceiling is last week as he took advantage of Dwayne Allen’s ankle injury and put 7-144-0 on the Patriots. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the highly athletic Fleener and Andrew Luck are good friends from their Stanford days. It also doesn’t hurt that Allen is expected to sit this week and the Jags really struggle to cover the tight end (12th-most fantasy points allowed to the position this year, 3rd-most last year). When these two teams met in Week 3, Fleener went 4-49-1 on seven targets and Allen had 4-43-1 on six targets.
WHO I’LL HAVE MOST OF IN FANDUEL CASH GAMES
QB: Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning
RB: DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, C.J. Anderson, Rashad Jennings, Isaiah Crowell
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, Roddy White, Cecil Shorts, Keenan Allen
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener
D: Eagles, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks