MLB Daily Grind Down: Saturday, August 31st Page Two

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-08-31 05:36:40

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Chicago White Sox vs. Boston

7:10 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Boston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.273	0.780	20.40%	0.68
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.691	19.30%	0.40		0.254	0.726	20.90%	0.46
SP STATS	Danks – LHP					Peavy – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.19	4.15	6.15	8.83		1.10	3.99	7.70	11.01
LAST 14 DAYS	1.21	1.29	4.50	13.50		0.74	1.74	5.79	11.07
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			BOS vs L		BOS BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• John Danks – He has a 1.29 ERA over the last 14 days and beat two tough offenses in Kansas City and Texas. I’d like the play more if he was at home but he seems to be pitching well and shouldn’t be totally ignored against my K-happy Red Sox lineup.

• Jake Peavy – Peavy will face his former team for the first time since being traded to Boston and is coming off his best start as a member of the other colored Sox. The White Sox lineup he will face is pretty soft and Peavy’s home ERA is 2.67. I love this play, especially as a -210 favorite.

Batter Grind Down

• I mentioned yesterday but Victorino, Pedroia, Gomes, Napoli and Middlebrooks all crush left handed pitching. Middlebrooks is coming off of a strong game on Friday and could be a steal at 3B.
• Danks has allowed 16 HR to righties but the bigger threat against the right handed bats in Fenway is doubles. Look for the righties mentioned above to bounce a few off the monster in right on Saturday.
• Peavy is a fly ball pitcher so the most likely guy to take advantage of that is HR or Strikeout specialist Adam Dunn.

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LA Angels vs. Milwaukee

7:10 PM	LA Angels – ROAD					Milwaukee – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.263	0.743	18.90%	0.61		0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.270	0.753	18.80%	0.48		0.251	0.713	18.90%	0.43
SP STATS	Williams – RHP					Estrada – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.38	4.69	5.84	5.52		1.19	4.44	8.02	9.63
LAST 14 DAYS	1.36	3.29	8.86	7.07		0.92	2.77	9.00	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	LAA vs R		LAA BvP			MIL vs R		MIL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jerome Williams – Is the matchup against the Brewers tempting? Kind of. Do I ever trust and/or take Jerome Williams? Absolutely not.

• Marco Estrada – He’s coming off a 7 IP, 9 K gem against the Reds and is extremely boom or bust. I like the risk against the Angels but only in GPP formats. His 7.43 home ERA is AWFUL though and I might be back tracking on that idea a bit.

Batter Grind Down

• Lefties are hitting .282 with an .880 OPS off of Jerome Williams. Gindl, Gennett and Francisco are all strong value plays tonight.
• The Brewers stack might be a solid play tonight with Lucroy and Ramirez mashing righties and both hit well at home as well.
• Marco Estrada is HR-prone against both lefties and righties so you have to consider Trout and J-Ham tonight. I also like Kole Calhoun, he hit in the 4-hole on Friday night and has great value if he hits in the meat of the order.

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Seattle vs. Houston

7:10 PM	Seattle – ROAD					Houston – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.243	0.706	21.70%	0.54		0.239	0.683	25.60%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.231	0.661	22.10%	0.39		0.246	0.697	26.30%	0.42
SP STATS	Saunders – LHP					Keuchel – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.58	5.09	4.87	7.15		1.51	4.82	6.55	6.50
LAST 14 DAYS	2.05	8.31	1.05	1.03		1.64	3.27	2.45	5.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SEA vs L		SEA BvP			HOU vs L		HOU BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Joe Saunders – Cool he gets to face Houston. He still sucks. He’s had negative outputs in each of his last 2.

• Dallas Keuchel – See Saunders, Joe.

Batter Grind Down

• This is going to be a shootout between two below-average offenses, which equals a ton of value available.
• Justin Smoak hits lefties well and is probably my favorite Mariners hitter tonight.
• Chris Carter, Matt Dominguez, Brandon Barnes, Robbie Grossman and Jose Altuve all hit lefties well and are great value options tonight.
• Avoid LJ Hoes, he has just a .487 OPS against lefties.

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Miami vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	Miami – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.226	0.634	21.30%	0.35		0.253	0.737	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Turner – RHP					Minor – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.36	3.12	5.60	8.56		1.08	2.99	8.01	11.89
LAST 14 DAYS	2.16	5.06	0.88	2.60		1.83	5.19	4.39	5.60
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs L		MIA BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jacob Turner – A 5.06 ERA over the last 2 starts isn’t making me feel great against an opportunistic Braves offense.

• Mike Minor – The Marlins are the league’s worst against lefties but Minor has been subpar over his past 3 starts after a dominant July. I can’t say I don’t like the play against Miami but I’d proceed with caution. He’s a -220 favorite though with a low O/U of just 7.

Batter Grind Down

• Giancarlo Stanton has 2 HR in his career off Minor, but those are his only hits in 14 ABs against. He has walked 7 times though. Justin Ruggiano might be a steal with 5 hits and 1 HR in 14 ABs against Minor as well. He’s also been mashing of late with a 1.138 OPS over the last 7 days.
• Turner has struggled a bit against righties, allowing them to hit .260 with an over .750 OPS against. I like JUpton today despite his recent injury concerns.
• Brian McCann took Turner yard earlier this season and he, like most of the Braves, hits much better at home.

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NY Mets vs. Washington

7:10 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.679	22.00%	0.41		0.253	0.711	20.10%	0.44
SP STATS	Wheeler – RHP					Haren – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.34	3.42	8.16	10.78		1.24	4.66	7.83	8.80
LAST 14 DAYS	1.20	2.79	11.31	13.70		1.00	2.70	6.75	8.25
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			WSN vs R		WSN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Wheeler – If I had any idea which Nationals team would show up I’d recommend or tell you to avoid Wheeler. The Jekyll and Hyde Nationals are impossible to predict. He did get torched by them in an earlier start this season, allowing 2 HR and 5 ER in just under 5 IP.

• Dan Haren – I love how Haren has looked since coming off the injury and while his HR woes remain I still think he’s a tremendous play against the Mets. The O/U is set to 7.5 and he’s a sizeable favorite so fire away if he’s middle-tier priced.

Batter Grind Down

• Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche took Wheeler deep the last time he faced the Nats and both are good options again tonight.
• Wheeler is allowing lefties to hit for an over .800 OPS against so I like Harper, Span and LaRoche a lot tonight.
• Haren has some gaudy stats against righties and lefties, mostly due to his early season struggles. I don’t love any of the Mets bats except Daniel Murphy who I mentioned yesterday and continue to like as long as he remains hot.

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