MLB First Look: Tuesday, July 1
Editor’s Note: Welcome to MLB First Look! In an effort to provide Grinders with more “night-before” MLB Research Content, we’re proud to announce MLB First Look by Top-Ranked Notorious. Unlike season-long where writers have months to prep before writing articles on draft strategy, the quick nature of Daily Fantasy’s player draft-pool turn-around makes completing entire research routines and writing high quality articles the night before challenging, and at times impossible. This column should help you glean insight and strategies to exploit as Notorious begins his research routine with you. Since it’s a new column, let us know your feedback in the comments!
MLB First Look provides you a quick overview of the most noteworthy DFS tidbits for tomorrow’s MLB matchups and player pools, and is brought to you by none other than Derek “Notorious” Farnsworth (#6 Ranked Overall, DraftDay MLB Champion, DSBC Finalist x3, DSBBC Finalist, DFBBC Finalist). Each night before weekday games (and occasionally weekends), Notorious will analyze the daily matchups and player pools to provide you with his initial thoughts on strategies for that day. The preview will begin with a starting pitcher overview, then move onto matchup notes, teams to target, player pricing, general strategy and more. Additionally, Derek will give you a quick recap of how his night in DFS transpired.
What I Learned Tonight
We had a nice 11 game slate for Monday night and there were a few things that I learned. First off, I learned (OK, I already knew) that Joe Saunders is really THAT bad. I also learned that Jake Arrieta is really THAT good. Arrieta took a no-hitter into the 8th inning against the Red Sox in Fenway. He ended up giving up a hit and getting pulled, but still posted a very solid 7 and 2/3’s innings in which he struck out 10 batters without giving up a run. Vegas was dead wrong in that game; they had the Red Sox projected as the 3rd highest scoring team on the board even though Arrieta had been dominant in each of his last 5 starts. Sometimes you have to trust the numbers more than the Vegas line.
It was a disappointing night for me in terms of the DFBC (didn’t even crack the Top 30), but overall it was a very solid night. The Nationals and Orioles were two of my favorite targets and they both paid off handsomely. I did have one thought in terms of GPP strategy that I wanted to share. It can be very beneficial to target the players that have a bad matchup (for example a lefty/lefty matchup) as long as the team as a whole has a great matchup. Tonight the player that came to mind was Adam LaRoche. He was facing lefty Yohan Flande and most people ignored him because of the lefty/lefty matchup. Flande was pulled from the game and LaRoche went on to hit a HR later in the game. Targeting these players in GPP’s can really pay off in situations where the starter isn’t expected to pitch deep into the game.
Today’s MLB Schedule
| TIME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY STARTER | HOME STARTER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:07 PM | Milwaukee | Toronto | Estrada (7-4) – 5.06 ERA | Hutchison (5-6) – 4.00 ERA |
| 5:10 PM | L.A. Angels | Chi. White Sox | Weaver (8-6) – 3.33 ERA | Carroll (2-4) – 4.76 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Arizona | Pittsburgh | Miley (3-6) – 4.78 ERA | Locke (1-1) – 3.74 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Texas | Baltimore | Martinez (1-5) – 4.65 ERA | McFarland (0-1) – 2.70 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Colorado | Washington | Friedrich (0-2) – 8.10 ERA | Strasburg (6-6) – 3.70 ERA |
| 7:05 PM | Tampa Bay | N.Y. Yankees | Price (6-7) – 3.63 ERA | Kuroda (5-5) – 4.23 ERA |
| 7:08 PM | Oakland | Detroit | Mills (1-0) – 4.35 ERA | Porcello (10-4) – 3.41 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Chi. Cubs | Boston | Jackson (5-8) – 5.22 ERA | Buchholz (3-4) – 6.75 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | N.Y. Mets | Atlanta | Matsuzaka (3-2) – 3.23 ERA | Minor (2-5) – 4.50 ERA |
| 7:10 PM | Philadelphia | Miami | Burnett (5-7) – 3.89 ERA | Alvarez (5-3) – 2.32 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Seattle | Houston | Iwakuma (5-4) – 3.48 ERA | Cosart (8-5) – 3.60 ERA |
| 8:10 PM | Kansas City | Minnesota | Shields (8-3) – 3.79 ERA | Nolasco (4-6) – 5.74 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Cleveland | L.A. Dodgers | Masterson (4-5) – 5.03 ERA | Beckett (5-4) – 2.11 ERA |
| 10:10 PM | Cincinnati | San Diego | Leake (6-6) – 3.41 ERA | Kennedy (5-9) – 4.01 ERA |
| 10:15 PM | St. Louis | San Francisco | Gonzales (0-0) – 9.00 ERA | Lincecum (6-5) – 4.42 ERA |
Today’s Noteworthy Research Findings
1) Starting Pitcher Overview
– Click the “$” icon to view a player’s price on each of the sites
Scanning through tonight’s games, here are the Pitchers that caught my eye:
- Stephen Strasburg – Strasburg may not be the most expensive pitcher on the board, but he looks like the top overall pitching option. He is pitching at home (2.51 ERA with 76 K’s over 57 innings of work this season) against a Rockies’ offense that is actually subpar when you take them out of the friendly confines of Coors Field. If you are paying up, pay up for the BURG.
- Mike Minor – Minor stands out as a great value play tonight. Even though the Mets have made it tough on recent LH pitchers that they have faced (Kazmir and Wood), they are still below average as a team against LH pitching. They will also likely be without David Wright who is the best hitter against LH pitching in their lineup. Minor is cheap across the industry as he is only $7,300 on FD, $16,879 on DS, and $8,300 on DK.
- Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma looks like he could provide great upside against the strikeout happy Astros. The Astros have the 2nd highest strikeout rate against RH pitching this season (23.9%). Iwakuma may finally top his season high of 7 strikeouts.
- Both pitchers in Petco (Mike Leake & Ian Kennedy) – Just as all hitters get a boost when they play in Coors Field, all pitchers get a boost when they play in Petco Park. It’s the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball and the total for this game is set at only 6.5 runs. Targeting both of these pitchers on multi-pitcher sites may not be the worst idea.
2) Two Easy Teams to Target
- Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles were mentioned last night as a top team to target and they put up 7 quick runs on Joe Saunders and the Rangers. I like them again tonight as they face Nick Martinez who has given up 24 earned runs in his last 28 innings of work. Martinez has really struggled against LH hitters, but hasn’t been particularly great against RH hitters either.
- Washington Nationals – The Nationals may fly under the radar a bit tonight thanks to the low total in their game against Christian Friedrich and the Rockies. That said, this Nationals’ lineup is stacked with talent now that they are all healthy. When you have Wilson Ramos batting 8th, you know that the lineup is stacked. They draw a great matchup against the young southpaw Friedrich.
3) The Tomahawk Stack
Looking for a stack that may fly under the radar on Tuesday? How about the Braves? As a team, they have really struggled against RH pitching, but they still have a ton of firepower in their lineup and they are facing Daisuke Matsuzaka who can be very erratic at times. Dice-K has an ERA close to 5.00 on the road this season and is coming off of one of his worst starts of the season.
4) BvP Standout: Big Papi vs. E-Jax
There are a lot of reasons to like David Ortiz tonight and his BvP against Edwin Jackson only adds to the cause. Ortiz is 9/20 off of Jackson in his career with 2 HR’s and 2 doubles. Jackson has given up a .391 wOBA to LHB’s this season and Big Papi should be in for quite an evening. I really like him on sites that have him listed as a DH because most people don’t even see the DH as an option when scrolling through the positions.
5) Anyone Call for a Save?
This column is meant to be fun and mix it up a bit so why not throw in a little relief pitcher strategy? There are a few sites that offer the roster flexibility of taking a relief pitcher. This allows you to save some salary cap space. Instead of randomly picking a closer, put some thought into it. I like targeting closers that are on a favored team in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Kenley Jansen is my favorite closer for Tuesday night’s slate. The Dodgers are sizable favorites (-150) in what is expected to be a low scoring game (7.5 run total). Jansen is in a nice spot to pick up his 26th save of the season.
We had a lot of great feedback yesterday on the new column. As always, we aim to please so if there is anything you’d like to see moving forward, let us know by leaving a comment!