MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 22nd Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-22 17:17:10

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs

St. Louis					Chicago Cubs
Adam Wainwright		Vegas Moneyline STL -170			Travis Wood		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.247	0.633	0.281	20.50%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.620	0.275	21.10%
SP vs. Right	0.201	0.550	0.247	18.80%	SP vs. Right	0.289	0.832	0.369	17.30%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Adam Wainwright – The Cardinals have wrapped up a playoff spot, but have yet to clinch the division which means they are still in must win mode. Wainwright has arguably the best matchup on the board as he is facing a Cubs offense that is ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 23% clip. Wainwright has looked like his dominant self in his last 3 starts. He’s only given up a combined 2 earned runs over that stretch while striking out 18 batters. As long as the wind is not blowing out tonight in Wrigley, Wainwright is the top pitching option on the board. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10400 FD, $21150 DD, $10000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Travis Wood – Wood is coming off of one of his best starts of the season, but overall it’s been a disappointing 2014. He owns a 4.86 ERA (4.57 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.3. He has given up too many walks (3.9 per 9 innings) on the season and should have his hands full with the Cardinals who still have something to play for. He’s one of the biggest underdogs on the board for a reason. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $9350 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Yadier Molina – As mentioned above, the Cardinals have yet to wrap up their division, so they will still roll their starters out tonight against lefty Travis Wood who has really struggled against RH hitters. Molina has hit lefties well throughout his career and has great numbers off of Wood: 14/35 with 3 HR’s and 4 doubles.

Additional Plays: Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta

Chicago Cubs

Avoid all Cubs tonight against Adam Wainwright unless the wind is blowing out in Wrigley.

Houston at Texas

Houston					Texas
Nick Tropeano		Vegas Moneyline TEX -150			Derek Holland		Vegas Over/Under8.0
RIGHT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.211	0.524	0.234	21.50%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nick Tropeano – Tropeano will be making his 3rd career start tonight. In his first two outings, he gave up a combined 3 earned runs while striking out 9 batters over 10 innings of work. He’s one of the Astros top prospects, but is still unproven at the major-league level. Even though the Rangers lineup doesn’t look intimidating, they are in a pretty good spot tonight with this game being played in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Derek Holland – Holland has looked great since coming off of the DL. In his last 4 starts he has given up a combined 3 earned runs while striking out 22 batters. He has pitched at least 6 innings and struck out at least 5 batters in each start. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Astros who have really fallen apart down the stretch. Over the last 30 days, they have a team .291 wOBA while striking out at an alarming 27% rate. He offers great upside at an affordable price. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8400 FD, $14150 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve – Altuve is the only Astros batters that I will have any exposure to in cash games. While Holland is a top pitching option, Altuve has the highest average in baseball against LH pitching. He has a .422 batting average against southpaws this season and is always a threat to steal a base.

Additional Plays: Chris Carter (GPP)

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre has been terrific at home this season with a .421 wOBA. He’s also sporting a .370 wOBA against RH pitching. He gets both of those tonight against Tropeano who will only be making his 3rd career major-league start.

Additional Plays: Leonys Martin

Arizona at Minnesota

Arizona					Minnesota
Josh Collmenter		Vegas Moneyline MIN -120			Ricky Nolasco		Vegas Over/Under8.0
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.288	0.765	0.336	13.10%	SP vs. Left	0.330	0.914	0.398	13.30%
SP vs. Right	0.206	0.625	0.275	18.90%	SP vs. Right	0.292	0.813	0.353	19.10%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Josh Collmenter – Collmenter has not pitched well on the road this season. He has a 4.95 ERA on the season while giving up a .365 wOBA to his opponents. That doesn’t bode well for his prospects tonight against the Twins who are the 5th best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Collmenter can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7000 FD, $11750 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco has struggled this season, but he has had some bad luck. He’s now pitched well in back to back games (15 IP, 10 K’s, 1 ER). He appears to be rounding into form now that the season is almost over. While he’s still a risky option for cash games, he makes a great tournament play against the Diamondbacks who have the 3rd worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $9500 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Ender Inciarte – If you are not a fan of Nolasco tonight, the LH hitters on the Diamondbacks are in a favorable spot. Nolasco is giving up a .398 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Inciarte has hit RH pitching well and is always a threat to steal a base with a righty on the mound.

Additional Plays: Miguel Montero

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas is having an exceptional rookie season. He’s been an RBI machine and he’s been a big reason why the Twins offense has been rolling over the last couple of months. Vargas draws a nice matchup against Collmenter; on the season Vargas has a .345 batting average and a .421 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe

LA Angels at Oakland

LA Angels					Oakland
C.J. Wilson		Vegas Moneyline OAK -150			Jeff Samardzija		Vegas Over/Under7.0
LEFT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.197	0.564	0.261	24.60%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.670	0.295	23.90%
SP vs. Right	0.273	0.774	0.344	19.10%	SP vs. Right	0.220	0.622	0.276	22.20%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• C.J. Wilson – Wilson has not pitched well since coming back from injury, but he’s coming off of one of his better starts of the season. He threw 7 shutout innings against the Mariners while striking out 7 batters. The biggest issue with Wilson this season has been his command. He is averaging over 4 walks per 9 innings and faces an A’s offense that draws as many walks as any team in the American League. His price on DK is low enough that he could worth a look as a tournament play there, but he can be avoided elsewhere. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $14150 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jeff Samardzija – Any concerns about the shark’s strikeout rate in the American League are long gone. He has struck out 44 batters over his last 5 starts. On the season he has an ERA under 3.00 and he’s managed to keep his walks down and HR’s down. While the matchup against the Angels isn’t ideal, he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark with plenty on the line. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9600 FD, $19050 DD, $10400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Avoid all Angels tonight against Jeff Samardzija who has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA this season.

Oakland

Josh Donaldson – Donaldson against a lefty is as close to a must play as you are going to find at 3B. Donaldson has been terrific against lefties with a .442 wOBA on the season. Meanwhile, C.J. Wilson has given up a .344 wOBA to RH hitters.

Additional Plays: Derek Norris

Colorado at San Diego

Colorado					San Diego
Tyler Matzek		Vegas MoneylineSD -120			Eric Stults		Vegas Over/Under6.5
LEFT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.152	0.450	0.206	27.40%	SP vs. Left	0.287	0.795	0.348	12.20%
SP vs. Right	0.304	0.861	0.377	14.30%	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.799	0.349	14.90%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L		Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Matzek – Matzek is having a September to remember. In 3 starts, he has posted a 1.74 ERA with 19 K’s over 20 innings of work. He’s held batters to a .231 batting average during that stretch. He may have the best park-adjusted matchup on the board tonight as he faces the Padres in Petco. The Padres are ranked 30th in wOBA vs. LH pitching and the total for his game is set at only 6.5 runs. Matzek makes a nice tournament play and can also be used as a #2 starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5500 FD, $14950 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Eric Stults – Stults just hasn’t been able to put it together this season. He is sporting a 4.59 ERA with a low K/9 of 5.9. Those are very pedstrian numbers, especially considering the fact that half of his starts are in Petco. While the Rockies have struggled to score runs on the road, they still have a very potent offense. Stults is not a recommended option tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5700 FD, $10650 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado / San Diego

Even though Eric Stults has been awful against RH hitters this season, there aren’t any options that stand out here. The total is set at only 6.5 runs which is the lowest total on the board.

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