NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 9th - Page Two
Chicago at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -1, 195 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Chicago | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.00 | Team Proj. | 98.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.16 | Team Pace | 95.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 4 | Opp. Season | 23 | 2 | 27 | 15 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 22 | 23 | |
Chicago
The Bulls head to Washington to take on the Wizards in what should be a defensive battle. The Wizards are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season and the Bulls are no slouches on the defensive side of the floor. This game has a total of 195 points, but is not an appealing matchup for our purposes. Tread lightly with your fantasy selections in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 24-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
The Wizards can jump up to the second seed in the East with a win over the Bulls tonight. The Wizards have been dominant at home this season, posting a 15-4 record. Their matchup against the Bulls isn’t one that we need to get carried away with. The Bulls play at an average pace and have a top ten defense in terms of efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 25-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9200, DK: $9800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25)
Wall’s home and road splits have converged as the season has progressed, but he has still put up much better numbers at the Verizon Center. In 19 home games this season, Wall is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, 11 assists, and 2 steals per game. He put up an almost identical stat line against the Bulls the first time these two teams met up earlier this season. Wall’s price has come down on FanDuel and tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on the All-Star. He should play well against Derrick Rose and the Bulls, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -8.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Muhammad-Young-Dieng
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
| Minnesota | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.50 | Vegas Sprd | -8.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.5 | Team Pace | 96.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Shabazz Muhammad | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 15 | 23 | 3 | 23 | Opp. Season | 26 | 22 | 29 | 20 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 3 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 27 | |
Minnesota
Mo Williams is hurt yet again. He has played well this season, but just can’t seem to stay on the court. He rolled his ankle late in the game against the Suns and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game against the Bucks. With Ricky Rubio still sidelined, Zach LaVine could be in for some extended action tonight if Williams is unable to suit up. The Wolves are listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bucks, who are tough on the defensive side of the floor.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 19-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6900, DK: $6600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
The Bucks have some long, rangy defenders, but that shouldn’t be a problem for Wiggins. He has a similar body type and similar athleticism. Wiggins has really played well recently, averaging 39 minutes per game over his last five. During that stretch, he has scored at least 20 points and racked up at least 30 fantasy points in every single game. He should continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight against the Bucks.
Secondary Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6400, DK: $6300 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Muhammad is in the same boat as Wiggins, although he hasn’t played quite as many minutes. He has still been playing well recently, averaging 28 fantasy points in over 33 minutes per game in his last ten outings. Of the two, I have Wiggins ranked slightly higher than Muhammad, but both are in play against the Bucks, who have been average against opposing wing players this season.
Milwaukee
Jason Kidd gave us yet another example of why it’s hard to trust the Bucks in cash games. Giannis Antetokounmpo got benched the other night against the Sixers and didn’t play a single minute in the second half. Why was he benched? Your guess is as good as mine as Kidd failed to mention it after the game. Even with the randomness of their head coach, it’s hard to overlook the Bucks’ players tonight. They draw a premier matchup against the Wolves, who have allowed their opponents to score an average of 108.6 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7300, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Knight got off to a horrendous start against the Sixers the other night, but he salvaged his fantasy outing with a decent second half. He is still one of the top point guard plays when you factor in price. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of his last five games, he has a very high usage rate in the Bucks’ offense, and he draws a terrific matchup against the Wolves. On the season, the Wolves have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to point guards.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $5500, DK: $5900 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 18.4)
It doesn’t sound like Larry Sanders will rejoin the team for a while and Ersan Ilyasova is continuing to work his way back from a concussion. Until either player is back in the lineup, Pachulia will continue to see extended playing time. He has made the most of his opportunity, averaging 29 fantasy points over his last eight games. He could be in for another productive outing tonight against the Wolves, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6200, DK: $6600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
We have to assume that Jason Kidd was just trying to teach Antetokounmpo a lesson with his benching the other night. He should go back to his usual complement of minutes tonight (cross your fingers). Prior to the last game, Antetokounmpo was really starting to come into his own. He had scored at least 33 fantasy points in four of his previous five outings. He should be able to bounce back tonight against the Wolves, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Phoenix at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5, 210 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
| Phoenix | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5 | Vegas Sprd | -5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.12 | Team Pace | 95.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Marco Belinelli | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 15 | Opp. Season | 11 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 27 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 16 | |
Phoenix
The Suns have won eight of their last ten games and are clinging on to the eighth seed in the West. Tonight they head to San Antonio to take on a Spurs team that has surprisingly lost six of their last ten games. The Suns are 5-point underdogs with the total set at 210 points. This is expected to be a competitive, high-scoring affair.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 21-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8700, DK: $8700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
The Spurs have been stingy against shooting guards this season, but Bledsoe spends a lot of his time at the point, so it’s hard to label him strictly as a shooting guard. He has been on a tear over his last seven, averaging 19 points, 5 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. His price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings, sitting at a very playable $8,700 on both sites.
Alex Len (FD: $4700, DK: $4200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
You want value? Well we’ve got it! Len only needs around 21-24 fantasy points to reach value tonight, which is a number that he is more than capable of reaching. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. He also draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Spurs, who have not defended centers well recently (30th in fantasy points allowed over the last seven days).
San Antonio
The Spurs are not playing their best basketball right now. Granted, they are missing a key piece in Kawhi Leonard, but they have always been able to play next-man-up type of basketball. I expect them to bounce back tonight at home against the Suns. This is a favorable matchup, as the Suns have allowed their opponents to score an average of 104.7 points per game. The Spurs’ team total is set at 107.5 points, which is much higher than their season average of 102.2.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 22-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Tiago Splitter (FD: $4500, DK: $4200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Now that Splitter is healthy and playing starter’s minutes, I’m buying my shares while his price is still low. Over his last three games, he is averaging 22 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action per game. Splitter is a versatile big man that can do a little of everything on the floor. He’s an excellent passer and a good shot blocker as well. He should easily reach value tonight against a Suns defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Ginobili has his dud outings every now and then, but offers great upside at his price point. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last eight games. More importantly, he has played at least 24 minutes in each of those eight outings. He has a very high usage rate and he can still fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He’s a borderline elite play on DraftKings where he is priced at only $5,200.
Denver at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -4, 212 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Denver | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.00 | Vegas Sprd | -4.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104 | Team Proj. | 108 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.65 | Team Pace | 97.08 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 26 | 13 | 29 | 7 | Opp. Season | 7 | 23 | 5 | 27 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 27 | 2 | 15 | 19 | |
Denver
The Nuggets will look for their fourth win in a row tonight against the Kings. Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high-scoring game, which is typically a green light for fantasy production. The Nuggets are 4-point favorites in a game that features a total of 212 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 15-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
J.J. Hickson (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
I’m hesitant to put Hickson as an elite play over Nurkic. This feels a bit like an overreaction after a sample size of only one game without Timofey Mozgov. That said, Hickson played very well off the bench the other night against the Magic. He finished with 27.5 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action. He offers great value tonight against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6500, DK: $7100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Do yourself a favor and check out Faried’s game log. Despite constantly proving to us why he shouldn’t be trusted in cash games, we continue to target him night after night because of his upside. Can he score 50 fantasy points tonight? Sure he can, but he’s just as likely to score 20. For that reason, I will have zero shares of him in cash games and quite a few shares of him in tournaments tonight against the Kings.
Jusuf Nurkic (FD: $5000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Nurkic will have one of the all-time biggest swings in ownership percentage. He was over 70% owned in most double-ups on Wednesday night. While he didn’t play all that bad, he didn’t quite reach value. Everyone seems to be overlooking him for tonight’s game against the Kings, even though he is expected to remain in the starting lineup. He has averaged 31 fantasy points per game over his last five and remains a strong play at center tonight.
Sacramento
The Kings draw one of the most fantasy-friendly matchups on the board tonight. Not only are the Nuggets one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, but they are also ranked in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency. The Kings’ team total is set at 108 points, which is considerably higher than their season average of 102 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 16-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10700, DK: $10500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 33.4)
Cousins is the creme of the crop at center tonight. He may not be my favorite play at center when you factor in his hefty price tag, but he’s certainly on a short list of options. Cousins is averaging 23 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game this season. He should be able to dominate the paint against a Nuggets defense, that has struggled to contain opposing big men for years. Cousins could very well reach and exceed value in tonight’s favorable matchup.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $7400, DK: $7000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Collison’s price has come up to a point that’s a little more than I’d like to pay for him. That said, he’s still the point guard on a team that has one of the best matchups on the board. Collison has scored at least 32 fantasy points in three straight games and should play well in an uptempo game against the Nuggets.
Cleveland at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -12, 207 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Dellavedova-Miller-Love-Mozgov
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Cleveland | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.52 | Team Pace | 100.87 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Matthew Dellavedova | Mike Miller | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 1 | Opp. Season | 6 | 28 | 19 | 18 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 19 | 27 | 8 | 13 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are 12-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors. LeBron James is not anywhere near a return, which means Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love will continue to carry the load offensively. While both players should see a high usage rate in the offense tonight, I’m not a fan of the matchup. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency and play terrific basketball at home. Timofey Mozgov will start for the Cavaliers tonight, but is not a recommended fantasy option at this time.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 28-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $8500, DK: $8800 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
I’ve seen other experts list Irving as one of their top point guard options of the evening, but I see him as a secondary play against the Warriors. His price is a little too high for me to use him in a tough matchup against the Warriors. Granted, Stephen Curry isn’t the best on-ball defender in the NBA, but the Warriors play terrific team defense. Throw in the fact that this could be a blowout and I will have very little exposure to Irving tonight.
Golden State
The Warriors own an NBA-best 15-1 record at home this season. They are 12-point favorites tonight against a reeling Cavaliers ball club. This is a favorable fantasy matchup for the Warriors, as the Cavaliers are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. They have also allowed their opponents to score an average of 99.5 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 19-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17)
I don’t have any of the Warriors listed as elite plays tonight, because I find myself liking other options at each of their respective positions. Green is worth consideration though, as he continues to be one of the most underrated players in both real life and in DFS. He has scored at least 35 fantasy points in five of his last six games and draws a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7800, DK: $7100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27)
Thompson is coming off of a terrific outing against the Pacers. He scored 40 points and added 4 rebounds and 3 assists. His price on DraftKings is awfully enticing at only $7,100, especially when you factor in the three-point bonus on that site. He may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is worth a look on DraftKings.