NFL Grind Down: Week 10 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-09 15:17:56

Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Dallas Cowboys						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						Wembley Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5	44	24.5				5	44	19.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.6	10	14	5		Offense	15.7	32	30	21
Defense	15.7	32	30	21		Defense	25.6	10	14	5
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	17	26	21	21		Dallas Cowboys	10	12	4	31
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Bryant	86	50	6	635		Shorts
Williams	46	27	6	426		Lee	21	12	0	128
Beasley	20	15	0	132		Robinson	71	43	2	488
Witten	50	34	2	398		Harbor	28	22	1	244

Quick Grind

•Keep an eye on Cowboys QB Tony Romo’s health
•If Romo plays, upgrade the Cowboys passing attack
•Don’t overlook Jaguars RB Denard Robinson

Dallas Cowboys

Update: Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning that 20 Cowboys players missed curfew on Friday night. It’s not known which players were involved or what discipline, if any, they’ll face. It’s hard to know how much weight to put on this report, but keep an eye on any news of discipline in case there are changes in playing time

RB DeMarco Murray — $9300 — 15.5% of cap — 2nd-most expensive RB

For the first time this season DeMarco Murray didn’t eviscerate a defense, as the Cardinals held the NFL’s leading rusher to just 79 yards in Week 9. Consider it an inevitable blip on the radar – Murray will get back on track this week vs the Jaguars. The Jags have crashed down the run-defense rankings following their 154 yard, 2 TD implosion at the hands of Jeremy Hill and the Bengals last week; they now grade out as the 6th-worst team in run defense on PFF, and allow the 7th-most FPPG to the position. With either an injured or terrible QB at the helm this week, the Cowboys will feed endless touches to Murray. He’s the top RB option this week.

WR Dez Bryant — $8400 — 14.0% of cap — 8th-most expensive WR

The combination of Brandon Weeden and Patrick Peterson’s press coverage held Dez to 2-15-1 last week. Hopefully that will keep people off Dez this week, because he has the potential for a monster performance regardless of his QB. The Jags are fresh off being dominated by AJ Green and Mohamed Sanu to the tune of 145 yards and 2 TDs. They allow the 12th-most FPPG to WRs, and, as mentioned last week, are without 2 of their 3 primary CBs due to injury. With all the strong matchups for elite WRs this week, it’s possible that Dez will be overlooked compared to his peers. With a favorable matchup of his own, Dez is oddly a preferred contrarian WR this week, especially if Tony Romo is able to play.

WR Terrance Williams — $6500 — 10.83% of cap — 25th-most expensive WR

I suggested caution with Terrance Williams last week, and although he still received 7 targets, he turned them into just 2 catches for 19 yards. Given the uncertainty at QB, Williams appears in another no-win situation this week. His big play potential gives Williams some tournament appeal if Tony Romo plays, but the possibility of a simplified gameplan regardless of the QB makes Williams an unnecessary risk this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson — $6800 — 11.33% of cap — 14th-most expensive RB

Key Injury Alert: LB Justin Durant, DL Tyrone Crawford

The people who still turn up their nose to the thought of Denard Robinson as a starting RB clearly haven’t watched the kid run. Robinson had his third straight impressive performance last week, dashing through the Bengals defense for 104 yards and a TD on 19 touches. This week Shoelace faces a Cowboys defense fresh off allowing 134 total yards to Andre Ellington in Week 9. The Cowboys project to be even leakier vs the run going forward as they’ll be without impressive DL Tyrone Crawford. This already injury-ravaged defense has been exposed in recent weeks, and Robinson should continue the trend. He’s reasonably priced for a top-15 option and will likely be underowned yet again.

WR Allen Robinson — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 27th-most expensive WR

Robinson couldn’t overcome the Bengals tough coverage last week, and is likely to have the same trouble against Cowboys CB Sterling Moore this week. Moore has allowed more than 37 yards in his coverage just twice this year. Robinson is the most talented Jags WR, but is a risky tournament-only option this week.

TE Clay Harbor — $5100 — 8.5% of cap — 16th-most expensive TE

Harbor was a bust in last week’s cake matchup with the Bengals, but gets a shot at redemption with an even CAKIER matchup against the Cowboys. The Cowboys allow more than 6 catches and 80 yards per game to opposing TEs. They also match up well with the Jags receivers, which should mean more looks for Harbor. He’s in play as a salary relief TE this week.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

San Francisco 49ers						New Orleans Saints
Sun – 1:00 PM						Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		4.5	49	22.25				-4.5	49	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.0	23	16	19		Offense	28.4	5	6	2
Defense	28.4	5	6	2		Defense	21.0	23	16	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New Orleans Saints	25	17	27	2		San Francisco 49ers	5	4	18	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Crabtree	60	37	3	362		Colston	47	28	1	444
Boldin	62	45	2	540		Stills	32	24	1	373
Johnson	37	28	3	356		Cooks	54	43	2	410
Davis	26	16	2	161		Graham	62	46	5	518

Quick Grind

•One of the highest Vegas totals of Week 10…
•… But tough matchups for both teams

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick — $7500 — 12.5% of cap — 15th-most expensive QB

It will hurt my heart to talk about how much of a disappointment Kaep was last week, so let’s move right into this week. The Saints allow the 8th-most FPPG to QBs, but as usual there’s more that we can uncover. The Saints have been exposed mostly by pure passers (Ryan: 463 yd, 3 TD; Stafford: 300 yd, 2TD, Rodgers 439 yd, 2TD), which Kaep certainly is not. When dual-threat QB Cam Newton faced the Saints last week, he was basically rendered one-dimensional; that is, his advantage was taken away and he couldn’t beat the Saints through the air. Kaep has more weapons than Cam, but the worry is the same. His downside without rushing production is pretty substantial, and the resurgent Saints defense matches up well with the 49ers weapons. Kaep’s upside is as high as any QB in the league, but his volatility makes him a tournament-only play this week.

49ers WRs

Boldin — $6500 — 10.83% of cap — 23rd-most expensive WR
Crabtree — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 31st-most expensive WR

As usual, matchups continue to dictate which of the 49ers receivers will be featured in a given week. And yet again, Anquan Boldin tortured the Rams last week with a 6-93-1 line. I think Boldin will again see the most favorable matchups this week, as he usually does with his hybrid outside/slot role. Conversely, I think Michael Crabtree will earn shadow coverage from Saints CB Keenan Lewis. Lewis seems to have rebounded from a rough start to 2014 and recently shut down Jordy Nelson. It doesn’t bode well for Crabtree, who hasn’t looked impressive since the first few weeks of the season. Despite his talent, you should probably look elsewhere for mid-range receivers. Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson are talented but inconsistent; they’re nothing more than cheap prayers.

RB Frank Gore — $6800 — 11.33% of cap — 12th-most expensive RB

“As much as I hate to admit it, Frank is finally starting to fade as a starting RB in the NFL. The 49ers have seen it for a while, evident in the drafting of Carlos Hyde in April, and in the rookie’s steady leaching of Gore’s carries in increasingly high-leverage situations.”

That was last week’s description of the Niners RB situation, and it’s looking particularly apt after Gore managed just 49 yards on 14 carries last week. It’s tough to recommend him in all but the best matchups, of which this week is not one. The Saints allow just 86.6 rushing yards per game to RBs, and have stiffened considerably since DeMarco Murray smashed them in Week 4. Gore is without question the 49ers RB to own, but there’s minimal upside in rostering him this week.

TE Vernon Davis — $5500 — 9.17% of cap — 10th-most expensive TE

We’ve reached the point where I’m only mentioning Davis because of his name. He’s had some huge plays against the Saints in the past, but simply isn’t being utilized in this offense right now. Moreover, the Saints allow the 2nd-fewest FPPG to TEs and just shut down high-usage TE Greg Olsen. Look elsewhere for a TE this week.

New Orleans Saints

QB Drew Brees — $9200 — 15.33% of cap — 3rd-most expensive QB

The Niners allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to QBs, but have shown that they can be beaten by elite QBs with elite weapons (Peyton Manning: :317 yards, 4 TDs). As with the Niners/Broncos game earlier in the season, I just don’t see the Niners keeping pace with Brees and the Saints at all. Brees is a top-5 QB play this week.

TE Jimmy Graham — $7500 — 12.5% of cap — MOST expensive TE

Key Injury Update: LB Patrick Willis missed practice all week, and reports suggest he is unlikely to play. Upgrade Jimmy Graham.

One of the most interesting matchups of the week pits top TE Jimmy Graham against All-World LB Patrick Willis… potentially. Willis didn’t practice this week and is Questionable for Sunday. If Willis isn’t able to go, Graham becomes a Gronk-like must-play. He’s a top-2 TE with top-5 receiver upside.

Saints WRs

Colston — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 26th-most expensive WR
Cooks — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 29th-most expensive WR

The 49ers have completely stifled opposing WRs that aren’t wearing a Broncos uniform, and pose a stiff test to the Saints group this week. The matchup, combined with the unpredictability of the Saints receiving performances, makes picking one a risky endeavor. Colston has been quiet but draws the most favorable coverage matchup against rookie slot man Jimmy Ward. Cooks came back to Earth last week after a monster Week 8, but has weekly blowup potential. If you must take a Saints WR, I would suggest Colston in cash games and Cooks in tournaments.

RB #AngryIngram — $7600 — 12.67% of cap — 9th-most expensive RB

The Mark Ingram Express rolled on for 110 total yards and 2 TDs last week vs the Panthers. Unfortunately, the bruising back now faces a 49ers squad that grades out as the 6th-best run-defense on PFF, and allows just the 4th-fewest FPPG and 6th-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs. It’s VERY hard not to roster #AngryIngram with the roll he’s on, but there are other RBs with much more favorable matchups this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers						New York Jets
Sun – 1:00 PM						MetLife Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-4.5	45.5	25				4.5	45.5	20.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	27.6	7	3	20		Offense	17.1	30	31	6
Defense	17.1	30	31	6		Defense	27.6	7	3	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Jets	32	7	20	30		Pittsburgh Steelers	14	15	17	23
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Brown	103	71	8	996		Decker	64	40	4	426
Wheaton	50	31	2	395		Harvin	48	36	0	284
Moore	14	8	2	113		Kerley	54	26	1	237
Miller	46	35	2	401		Cumberland	31	15	1	154

Quick Grind

•Target the Steelers passing attack
•Big Ben COULD throw another 6 TDs (but will probably JUST throw 3)
•Avoid the Steelers run game vs stout Jets front-seven

Pittsburgh Steelers

WR Antonio Brown — $9100 — 15.17% of cap — MOST expensive WR

The other day I started a Facebook page called ‘Completely Obnoxious Performances’, and Antonio Brown gave it a ‘Like’ almost instantly. The MVP candidate continued his stretch of making entire defenses look foolish last week with an 11 catch, 144 yard, 1 TD performance vs the Ravens. There has been no surer thing at WR this season than Brown, who now faces the Jets. The Jets. A team that gives up monster lines to opposing #1 WRs like THEY are rostering one in DFS each week:

The only limitation for Brown this week is the number of times Ben Roethlisberger decides to throw him the ball. He’s mighty expensive, but there is no more bankable production at WR this week than Antonio Brown.

QB Ben Roethlisberger — $8300 — 13.83% of cap — 5th-most expensive QB

[Insert joke about the number 6 here]. By now you know Big Ben did it again – ‘it’ being throwing for a preposterous 6 TDs in one game. The question everyone is quipping about this week is whether or not he’ll do it again. I will cleverly avoid answering that question by distracting you with a list of important stats about the Jets pass defense:

• They allow 21.6 FPPG ON AVERAGE to QBs – the most in the NFL
• They allow 2.7 passing TDs per game – the most in the NFL
• Not a single QB has thrown for LESS than 2 TDs against them – including Derek Carr and Alex Smith

Considering the evolution of the Steelers passing attack and the Jets inept coverage, Ben is not only a strong play in tournaments, but in consideration in cash games this week as well.

WR Martavis Bryant — $6100 — 10.17% of cap — 38th-most expensive WR

Bryant has been a touchdown terror for opposing defenses since establishing a role in the Steelers offense. His 3-44-2 line against the Ravens last week bumped his TD total to 5, in just 3 games. Considering the Jets secondary is a rag-tag group of draft busts, cast-offs, and guys who weren’t even drafted, Bryant’s field-stretching athleticism should be on display yet again. Though his price is rising, Bryant’s multi-TD potential makes him an ideal tournament play.

TE Heath Miller — $5300 — 8.83% of cap — 13th-most expensive TE

Miller is purely a matchup play this week. The Jets defense has been routinely exploited by TEs and is fresh off allowing 91 yards and 2 TDs to the Chiefs TEs. The Jets now allow the 3rd most FPPG to TEs and have been especially vulnerable in the red-zone. If you aren’t paying up for a TE this week, Miller is a solid low-price option.

RB Le’Veon Bell — $8700 — 14.5% of cap — 4th-most expensive RB

I warned against rostering Bell in a tough matchup with the Ravens last week; he managed just 20 yards on the ground but was bailed out as usual by his high-volume role in the passing game. This week is more of the same, as Bell faces the top graded run defense in the NFL. The Jets allow just 79 rushing yards per game to RBs, and most every team takes to the air vs this defense instead. Bell will rack up stats in the receiving game, but the likelihood of him being stifled on the ground means we should look elsewhere when shopping for top RBs.

New York Jets

WR Percy Harvin — $6600 — 11.0% of cap — 20th-most expensive WR

Harvin shined as the Jets movable chess piece last week, turning a whopping 13 targets into 11 catches for 129 yards. In addition to the short, high-percentage routes we were used to seeing from Harvin as a Seahawk, he also got his wish to be used as a vertical field-stretcher. I don’t see anyone on the Steelers defense capable of tracking Harvin, and to make matters worse, the Steelers will be without their timeless leader Troy Polamalu this week, as well as their heat-seeking rookie LB Ryan Shazier. That’s a massive loss at two levels of a defense that already grades out as the 11th-worst in coverage. Harvin is poised as a high upside tournament play this week.

WR Eric Decker — $6400 — 10.67% of cap — 30th-most expensive WR

Using Decker as a contrarian matchup play vs the Chiefs last week worked out, as the Cold Spring, MN native hauled in 9-63-1. That’s about the most we’ve been able to expect from Decker, who moves the chains and scores TDs, but doesn’t seem to ever go ballistic. The Steelers coverage isn’t anything to fear, though, and should lead Decker to another solid, if unspectacular game. He’s a top-20 WR option this week, and is best suited as your #2 or #3 WR in tournaments.

QB Mike Vick — $6900 — 11.5% of cap — 19th-most expensive QB

After a completely atrocious Week 8, Vick righted the ship in the turnover department last week, and didn’t look too bad as a passer either. Unfortunately he was more valuable to his primary receivers’ production than to his own. That might change this week against the Steelers. I mentioned the impact of the loss of Shazier and Polamalu, which should universally aid the Jets offense and Vick’s passing. It also removes two capable QB spies. All together I think Vick shapes up as a sneaky tournament play this week.

RB Chris Ivory — $6300 — 10.5% of cap — 26th-most expensive RB

Ivory was the victim of both Chris Johnson’s whining and more negative game flow last week as he was held to just 8 carries for 22 yards. Ivory is completely game flow-dependent — he suffers whenever his defense gives up scores and forces the Jets offense to the air (see what I did there?). Unfortunately that has been an almost weekly occurrence. The Steelers run defense should be vulnerable this week with the losses of Shazier and Polamalu, but it’s likely that the Jets trail throughout and Ivory’s carries are limited. He’s nothing more than a contrarian tournament play.

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