NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-04 22:37:26

St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles

St. Louis Rams						Philadelphia Eagles
Sun – 1:00 PM						Lincoln Financial Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7	47.5	20.25				-7	47.5	27.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.7	25	25	25		Offense	30.5	3	14	22
Defense	30.5	3	14	22		Defense	18.7	25	25	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	29	21	29	10		St. Louis Rams	16	11	15	5
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	11	6	0	86		Maclin	46	21	3	364
Austin	4	3	0	34		Cooper	25	15	0	125
Quick	22	16	1	235		Matthews	25	15	2	141
Cook	21	15	0	177		Celek	11	3	0	15

Quick Grind

•The Eagles offense should get back on track this week
•Can the Rams keep up?

St. Louis Rams

QB AUSTIN DAVIS
The last time we saw Austin Davis, he had piled up 327 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs on the Cowboys. Davis has been encouragingly accurate as a starter for the Rams, completing 72.3% of his passes, and not being afraid to sling it to top target Brian Quick. Davis has a tall task this week, as he’ll have to keep pace with the frenetic Eagles offense. Luckily, the Eagles defense has been as generous as its offense has been fast, allowing the 4th most FPPG and 2nd-most passing TDs to opposing QBs. That’s a recipe for success for Davis, who will be playing massively up in pace in this game, with additional pass volume due to game flow. It makes Davis an excellent GPP QB this week.

RB ZAC STACY
Stacy has been overlooked this year – apparently people have forgotten the 20+ carry, 100+ yard performances Stacy put up as a rookie last year. Of all the RBs I watched in Week 3, Stacy looked second-best, topped by only DeMarco Murray (and really it was more like 1A and 1B). It came with an intriguing box score: 12-67 on the ground (5.58 YPC) and a surprising 5-54 through the air. Stacy looked especially fluid and elusive in the open field after catching passes. It was an all-around dominant performance that few noticed. I think Stacy is in a great position for similar success this week against an Eagles D that just gave up 177 total yards to Frank Gore, and is now allowing the 12th-most FPPG to RBs. If the Rams can keep this game close for any stretch of time, and Stacy is able to start rolling, I think he can be a very sneaky #2 RB this week.

WR BRIAN QUICK
If you’re rostering Austin Davis, you pretty much have to pair him with Brian Quick. Quick has pretty much everything working for him in this one: price, matchup, pace, game script, etc etc. The Philly secondary allows the 4th-most FPPG to WRs and has been completely torched on several occasions. Most of the blame can be assigned to ‘burnt out’ whiner Cary Williams, who I swear is always just running behind the guy he’s supposed to be covering. He has the Eagles worst coverage grade by far, and has already allowed 19-266-2 for a 117.9 QB Rating. How’s that for a tasty matchup? Quick should be a high floor high ceiling WR play this week.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Nick Foles
Curiously, the Rams are allowing the fewest passing yards to QBs. A closer look shows they’ve faced the Vikings, Bucs, and a still-hobbled Tony Romo – not exactly a frightening group, is it? Foles and his oodles of pass attempts should knock the Rams from the top spot with ease. He’s a strong bounce back candidate this week.

WR Jeremy Maclin
Maclin leads the Eagles in targets and has nearly twice as many as second place Riley Cooper. It’s this high volume supply that makes him a near-elite WR play every single week. The Rams secondary is worse than what their weak-opponent-influenced numbers show, and shouldn’t have an answer for Maclin, who is always where he needs to be, and constantly bails out his QB with amazing catches. Maclin is an easy top-10 WR play this week.

LeSean McCoy
Pretty hard to run when you don’t have an offensive line, huh? While irreparable damage has been done the Eagles line as a whole, they at least get RT Lane Johnson back from suspension this week. It should help stop SOME of the bleeding. If you simply looked at the DVP numbers, you might avoid McCoy, thinking the Rams (who allow the 11th-fewest FPPG to RBs), were a tough matchup. This rankings screams fraud to me, especially given how easily they were shredded by DeMarco Murray in Week 3. Advanced metrics agree, as the Rams have the 2nd-WORST run-defense grade on PFF. It shapes up for a favorable situation for Shady – as long as his offensive line is up to the task. I’ve heard reports that the Eagles are installing new wrinkles in the run game to help get it jumpstarted. I think that, and the return of Johnson, pays off, and Shady has a solid performance for the first time in forever.

Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz simply hasn’t been getting the necessary supply to produce like a top TE. Until that changes he’s a risky play, albeit with TD upside.

Darren Sproles
Sproles is the ultimate GPP RB on full PPR sites. He can get you next to nothing, or all but guarantee that you cash.

Others
Your weekly Riley Cooper update: still just a guy that likes country music.

Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

Arizona Cardinals						Denver Broncos
Sun – 4:05 PM						Mile High Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		7.5	49	20.75				-7.5	49	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.0	19	16	24		Offense	25.0	10	2	28
Defense	25.0	10	2	28		Defense	22.0	19	16	24
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Denver Broncos	28	23	14	24		Arizona Cardinals	14	4	22	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	21	10	0	107		Thomas	27	13	1	141
Floyd	22	11	0	252		Welker	9	6	0	60
Brown	15	9	3	109		Sanders	33	25	0	334
Carlson	7	6	0	96		Thomas	17	14	5	160

Quick Grind

•High total suggests lots of scoring on the way to an easy Broncos victory
•Target the Broncos WRs despite the Cardinals CBs
•Arizona has interesting GPP options

Arizona Cardinals

WR Michael Floyd
Floyd has gone over 115 receiving yards twice in three 2014 contests but I don’t expect him to do so a third time this week. Given Floyd’s prominence in the Cardinals passing game, I think that the Broncos will commit CB Aqib Talib to shadow the big-play WR. Stanton will undoubtedly still sling it in Floyd’s general direction, but the matchup in coverage makes Floyd a risky play this week.

WR Larry Fitzgerald or John Brown
I think Larry Fitz has a decent shot at his best game of the season this week. The Broncos slot coverage is one of their only weaknesses in the secondary. Fitz (46%) and rookie John Brown (48.6%) work heavily from the slot, and will see Broncos slot man Bradley Roby in coverage. Roby has allowed the 4th-most yards of any slot CB, as well as surrendering a 102.3 QB Rating. Chain-moving from Fitz and explosive plays from Brown figure to be the only chance the Cardinals have in this game. Either player makes a justifiable GPP option.

RB Andre Ellington
I’m hopeful that Ellington is near full health for this game – I think he can exploit a Broncos defense that appears on paper to be an ideal matchup. The Broncos not only allow the 10th-most FPPG to RBs, but that ranking is fueled by weakness to receiving RBs (5th-most receptions allowed to RBs, 4th-most receiving yards. Ellington has intriguing upside as an ideal full-PPR #2 RB this week.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning
I understand why some are suggesting that the Cardinals top CBs will be able to slow down the Broncos passing game, but I just don’t agree. The Cardinals defense is VASTLY overrated. They own the 5th-worst team coverage grade on PFF, which should surprise no one given the accompanying 6th-worst pass-rush grade. I think the torch gets lit early and stays lit in this one as Manning dissects the Cardinals secondary from a clean pocket. Not many are talking about Manning this week, so he’s shaping up to be an excellent potentially underowned option.

WR Demaryius Thomas
DT has to have a break out game eventually, and I’ll take a bit of a contrarian angle and say that it’s coming tonight. Thomas will draw Patrick Peterson t in coverage this week, but the matchup doesn’t worry me. If anything I like DT’s chances, especially considering his NFL leading red-zone targets, and Peterson’s red-zone struggles thus far in 2014. Is there risk in taking DT, compared to other stud WRs? Sure, but take solace in the fact that Thomas will be the lowest owned elite WR this week. You’ll need to differentiate yourself to take home the million this week.

TE Julius Thomas
Of course the most likely candidate to pull in multiple Manning TDs is Julius Thomas. Newsflash: the Cardinals still can’t cover the TE (5th-most yards allowed). Orange Julius should make that pretty clear this week.

WR Emmanuel Sanders
Sanders surprisingly leads the Broncos in targets, and has been Manning’s matchup-killer of choice in 2 games so far. I worry a bit that the Cardinals duo of prototype CB specimens will be able to effectively press and disrupt Sanders, but if Manning wants to attack the Cardinals defense through Sanders again… it just won’t matter. Sanders usage thus far in 2014 gives him a higher ceiling than his matchup might indicate.

WR Wes Welker
I was encouraged by Welker’s 6-60 line in his first game back. We still need to see more of how he’ll be used given the emergence of Sanders, but I think Welker will make a solid full PPR option until further notice.

RB Montee Ball
I’m honestly not impressed at all with Montee Ball, especially in unfavorable matchups like this one. The Cardinals allow just 47.3 rushing yards per game, the 2nd-lowest mark in the NFL. I would avoid Ball this week and focus on the Broncos passing attack instead.

New York Jets at San Diego Chargers

New York Jets						San Diego Chargers
Sun – 4:25 PM						Qualcomm Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	43.5	18.5				-6.5	43.5	25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.8	23	29	7		Offense	25.5	9	4	30
Defense	25.5	9	4	30		Defense	19.8	23	29	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Diego Chargers	19	19	6	12		New York Jets	31	1	30	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	24	14	2	204		Allen	28	22	0	244
Kerley	27	16	1	144		Floyd	15	9	2	187
Nelson	10	6	0	45		Royal	29	17	4	236
Cumberland	14	8	0	82		Gates	23	17	3	215

Quick Grind

•The Chargers passing attack is their key to victory this week
•Avoid the Chargers RBs
•Keep an eye on Eric Decker’s health

San Diego Chargers

QB Phillip Rivers
Rivers’ unreal start to 2014 continued last week as he racked up 377 yards and 3 TDs vs the Jaguars. His amazing karma rolls on this week vs a Jets team that hasn’t figured out that they need to defend the pass to win games in the NFL. The Jets are allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs, and Rivers should add to the 253.8 passing yards they’re already allowing on average. There is nothing wrong with a ‘YOLO BOLO’ stack of Rivers and a few of his receivers this week.

WR Keenan Allen
Allen finally broke out as we assumed he would last week, racking up 10-135 vs the defensively disinterested Jaguars. This week he faces his second pushover secondary in as many weeks. The Jets allow the 3rd-most FPPG to WRs. There’s not much else to say – roster Keenan Allen.

WRs Eddie Royal and Malcom Floyd
With the Jets on tap this week, EVERY Chargers WR is in play.

TE Antonio Gates
Gates was basically the only Chargers receiver kept quiet vs the Jaguars. I don’t like his chances to rebound given the Jets recent comments that they’ve made defending Gates a priority this week. To be honest, Gates is the least of the Jets worries in the passing game. But sure, double-cover a 34 year old TE and risk single coverage with your horrible corners. Have I mentioned yet to roster Chargers WRs this week?

RB Donald Brown
We’ll keep this one short. The Chargers average the lowest YPC in the NFL. The Jets allow the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL. Brown is not an advised play this week.

Others
New backup RB Branden Oliver is used primarily in a receiving role and could rack up a few catches this week.

New York Jets

QB Geno Smith
Any time a QB is even remotely at-risk for an in-game benching, you should avoid him.

WR Eric Decker OR Jeremy Kerley
Decker continues to re-aggravate his hamstring injury and is shaping up as a GTD again this week. He was able to play, and play well from a box score standpoint, last week. Regardless, Decker is an extreme risk given the volatility of his injury. If he doesn’t play, expect Jeremy Kerley to be the primary passing game option. I have them listed as one OR the other because Decker playing last week seemed to eliminate Kerley’s targets entirely. I would only use Kerley if Decker is out.

TE Jace Amaro
Amaro’s role in the offense is steadily increasing, and reports suggest the Jets will be featuring the TE this week. It’s better than nothing. Amaro is a full PPR punt option at TE.

RB Chris Ivory
Ivory seems to be emerging as the clear lead dog in this backfield. Despite his success against a tough Lions run defense in Week 4, I don’t think Ivory’s job gets much easier this week. The Chargers are PFF’s 8th-best run defense unit, and should force the Jets into passing situations early, limiting Ivory’s carries. I would look elsewhere for a volume-dependent RB.

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