NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Two

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-25 22:17:40

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins						Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun – 1:00 PM						EverBank Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-5.5	43	24.25				5.5	43	18.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	24.5	11	20	7		Offense	15.0	32	30	30
Defense	15.0	32	30	30		Defense	24.5	11	20	7
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Jacksonville Jaguars	22	24	20	27		Miami Dolphins	6	22	8	19
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wallace	52	30	5	359		Shorts
Hartline	31	19	1	196		Lee	19	11	0	119
Gibson	13	7	0	65		Robinson	53	34	1	371
Clay	32	21	1	204		Harbor	22	20	1	217

Quick Grind

•Low total and projected easy win for the Dolphins limits overall appeal
•Avoid Jaguars vs tough Dolphins defense

Miami Dolphins

WR Mike Wallace

Another week, another solid showing from Mike Wallace. Wallace again led the Dolphins in targets last week, and again hauled in a TD. He’s become a real, consistent WR this season – a far cry from the YOLO Go Route usage of Wallace’s past. Ironically, Wallace still isn’t ripping off many big plays or long TDs because he and QB Ryan Tannehill have yet to get in rhythm. That aside, Wallace should have no problem dicing up the Jags secondary this week. They’re allowing the 13th-most FPPG to WRs, and OC Bill Lazor’s scheming should ensure Wallace finds himself in advantageous matchups all night. Wallace is a strong #2 WR this week, with explosive upside if he and Tannehill can ever get on the same page.

RB Lamar Miller

With Knowshon Moreno out for the year, it was simply the Lamar Miller show last week vs the Bears, as Miller racked up 83 total yards and a TD on 20 touches. I think we’ll be able to anticipate a similar amount of volume for Miller in games the Dolphins lead. This week profiles that way, with the Dolphins 5.5 pt favorites. Expect an efficient dose of Lamar Miller, but not the heavy dose that many teams would give their lead back; the Dolphins just don’t roll that way. Miller’s matchup isn’t as excellent as you might think when you consider the opponent, but the Jags still give up the 9th-most FPPG to RBs. They also have a lot of trouble covering RBs out of the backfield, allowing the most receptions per game to RBs. Miller’s role in the passing game should supplement his 15ish carries and goal-line opportunities nicely. He’s an ideal #2 RB this week.

QB Ryan Tannehill

I have been saying all season that Tannehill is going to win somebody a GPP, and while he hasn’t quite gotten to that level yet (he REALLY hates throwing an accurate deep ball), the Bill Lazor offense is producing sneaky strong performances on a weekly basis. Last week everything was clicking for Tanny and Co as he completed 78% of his passes for 277 yards and 2 TDs, and crucially chipped in 48 rushing yards as well. The Lazor scheme constantly keeps defenses off-balance with exotic formations, motion, and designed runs to maximize Tanny’s athleticism. The only downside is that the balanced pass approach hasn’t created multiple strong stack targets, so the impact of a Dolphins passing stack isn’t as pronounced as other team stacks. Tannehill and multiple Dolphins should be considered this week against the Jags. The Jags defense has looked pretty stout against the dazzling duo of Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer in the past two weeks, but still allows the 11th-most FPPG to QBs, and has been easily picked apart through the air by competent passers. Tannehill makes for a strong GPP QB this week

Miami Defense

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention one of the top Defense plays of the week, [Insert Team Playing the Jags Here]. But seriously, I’ve spoken often about the Dolphins pass-rush in terms of the danger it presents to opposing passing attacks, and this week is the perfect week to target it in DFS. Cam Wake and the Dolphins elite defensive line will eviscerate the Jags from literally all angles. They’ll stone the run, rack up sacks and possibly fumbles, and force bad passes that should lead to turnovers. It’s going to be a bloodbath.

GPP Options: TE Charles Clay & WR Jarvis Landry

Given the potential of a Dolphins blowout this week, there are a coupe other guys that make for interesting GPP plays against the helpless Jags. The first is TE Charles Clay. Clay has been struggling with injury all season, and finally broke out last week, to the tune of 4-58-1. That’s valuable production at the TE position, especially when it comes at a bargain barrel price. Clay is beginning to be utilized creatively as I hoped he would, further evidence of his returning health and the role he’ll have in this offense going forward. The Jags have struggled vs the TEs this year, allowing the 6th-most FPPG to TEs, and will be without key LB Paul Pozluszny as well. The shake up at LB could help Clay get free a few times. He’s an interesting GPP punt TE.

The second GPP play is WR Jarvis Landry. I’ve written up Landry a few times, as the LSU product has officially overtaken WR Brandon Gibson for slot duties in the Dolphins passing attack. Unlike #2 WR Brain Hartline, Landry is actually capable of getting open, and the coaching staff has mentioned a few times how they want to get him more involved. He will have a few big games before 2014 is over, and this week vs a sad Jags secondary is as good a week as ever for him to do it.

Jacksonville Jaguars

RB Denard Robinson

Well, the Storm puns were fun while they lasted. Now the RB formerly known as ‘Shoelace’ gets his crack at the prestigious Jags lead back role, on the heels of his 22-127-1 performance against the depleted Browns run defense last week. Unfortunately the Jags play a real defense this week, one which has consistently bogged down opposing running games: the Dolphins grade out as the 6th-best run defense team on PFF and limit opposing RBs to just 83.5 rushing yards per game. Robinson is risky for cash games, and doesn’t have much upside in what will certainly be an uphill battle for the Jags running game.

WR Cecil Shorts

Shorts again led the Jags in targets last week, but had the distinction of being perhaps the first #1 WR the Browns actually shut down this season. The problem with Shorts and the Jags passing attack in general is pretty evident by just taking a look at his box scores the last two weeks: 10-103 on 16 targets in Week 6, and 3-12 on 9 targets in Week 7. Shorts will get heavy supply, but Blake Bortles will be inaccurate, and occasionally crumble beneath his garbage offensive line. Don’t expect consistent production out of Shorts each week; rather, expect consistent volume. In the Twilight zone that is Jacksonville, the two aren’t always related. I wouldn’t expect great things from Shorts against top Dolphins CB Brent Grimes this week.

WR Allen Robinson

Robinson FINALLY cashed in the TD I’ve been preaching for last week, but unfortunately also managed his lowest catch total since Week 2 as well; he finished with 4 catches for 60 yards and the aforementioned TD. A-Rob continues to be put in position to ‘make plays’, which basically means the Jags again targeted him 2nd most, on routes that theoretically feature his open-field athletic prowess. This week Robinson should mainly see coverage from CB Cortland Finnegan. Finnegan has been having a bit of a bounce-back year after a horrid 2013, but is also in the bottom-25 of CBs in both QB Rating allowed and yards after catch allowed (122). If Bortles can survive the Dolphins pass-rush (a BIG if), Robinson could again be a GPP punt WR.

TE Clay Harbor

Harbor pulled in 6 catches for 34 yards last week, and is developing some consistency on full PPR sites. Unfortunately his price has overcorrected on some sites, such as DK where he is priced at or above the level of Owen Daniels, Jordan Reed, and Jordan Cameron. Harbor should be avoided in lieu of those players this week, but makes for a punt TE option where his price hasn’t been so obnoxiously adjusted.

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

St. Louis Rams						Kansas City Chiefs
Sun – 1:00 PM						Arrowhead Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	44	18.75				-6.5	44	25.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	21.5	24	18	20		Offense	23.7	13	25	4
Defense	23.7	13	25	4		Defense	21.5	24	18	20
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Kansas City Chiefs	10	6	13	21		St. Louis Rams	31	5	29	8
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	26	14	1	197		Bowe	30	19	0	279
Quick	37	24	3	365		Jenkins	8	7	0	56
Austin	15	12	0	108		Hammond	5	1	0	22
Cook	45	26	0	320		Fasano	21	12	1	123

Quick Grind

•Is this Jamaal Charles’ week?
•Be careful targeting Rams vs the Chiefs defense at home

St. Louis Rams

Rams RB Soup

By now you’re probably aware that rookie RB Tre Mason broke out (Part 2) for 85 yards a TD vs the Seahawks. Of course, instead of making life easy on us and sticking with Mason publically, the Rams coaches are now saying that they’re going to be using a 3-man committee approach with Mason, ac Stacy, and Benny Cunningham. But should we believe them? The lack of clarity is concerning, but if you think the Rams statement is smoke and mirrors, and they’re going to again ride Mason, he makes an interesting target against the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs are a polarizing matchup, as they allow the 6th-fewest FPPG to RBs… yet also allow 108.8 rushing yards per game to RBs as well, the 11th-most. At some level, the Chiefs are simply not the same D they were last years, as they’ve already lost 2 of their top run defenders for the season and are starting replacement level talents at LB. Obviously, Mason already gashed the Seahawks defense. He makes for an interesting but risky GPP punt RB if you think the Rams coaches are fibbing this week.

WR Brian Quick

The once-emerging Rams WR has QUICKLY fallen apart as he and his green QB have faced real defenses. I’m not sure Quick will be able to reassert himself as a legitatmie DFS option this week, as the Chiefs pass-rush could absolutely terrorize his QB. However, his matchup this week should be epic if for no other reason than size alone, as the 6’3, 218 lb Quick faces off with the… 6’3, 218 lb Sean Smith. It’s going to be a physical battle, and I wouldn’t’ be surprised to see more than one flag thrown their way. Ultimately, Smith has the talent to shut Quick down. There’s a chance that Quick outmuscles Smith at the line as is able to separate for a big gain or two, but since that scenario assume competent pass protection and QB play, I give the advantage to the Chiefs defense here. Quick will blast his price back up with a monster game soon, but it’s risky to expect it to happen this week.

TE Jared Cook

Until last week’s 3 catch, 25-yard effort, Cook had been a sneaky reliable full PPR TE, especially for people who hate upside. If Eric Berry is again out for the Chiefs, Cook again would be a meh TE option.

Kansas City Chiefs

RB Jamaal Charles

Charles is back to his usual workload after cranking out 24 touches for 107 total yards and 1 TD vs the Chargers last week. He has a potentially troubling matchup this week against a Rams defense that allows the 5th-fewest FPPG to RBs, and just limited Marshawn Lynch to 53 rushing yards. But isn’t this also the same Rams defense that allowed 174 yards to Bobby Rainey in Week 2, and 131 yards to DeMarco Murray in Week 3? The Rams D _can_be gashed, and if Charles is going to receive heavy volume (he should), then the only thing holding him back is the Chiefs struggling offensive line. Have no reservations rostering Charles as an elite #1 RB this week, especially considering his lower price throughout the industry.

WR Dwayne Bowe

It causes me physical pain to acknowledge that it’s shaping up to be a Dwayne Bowe week. I had almost forgotten that he existed until his 5 catch 84 yard effort this week. While Bowe has been toiling in obscurity, the Rams have been getting obliterated in the secondary. And now they appear to be without their top 2 corners, Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson. So Bowe will likely square off against either 6th-round rookie EJ Gaines or undrafted rookie Marcus Roberson. It will be one of the easiest matchups he gets all year, and one that isn’t even reflected in the Rams horrible DVP for WRs (4th-worst). Pinch your nose, close your eyes, do whatever you need to do, but consider Bowe in GPPs this week.

TE Travis Kelce

Baby Gronk managed just 4 catches for 33 yards last week, and also saw no improvement whatsoever in this snap count. So… until that changes, he will be an incredibly risky play, albeit with the possibility to Gronk Out if/when he miraculously becomes featured in a game plan again.

Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs pass-rush is finally hitting its stride and beginning to terrorize opponents, and has been a critical component of two recent Chiefs wins (NE, SD). Now the home Arrowhead crowd welcomes an inexperienced QB and fluctuating offense. The Chiefs make for a strong GPP defense.

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

Chicago Bears						New England Patriots
Sun – 1:00 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		6.5	50.5	22				-6.5	50.5	28.5
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.4	18	10	25		Offense	26.7	7	6	26
Defense	26.7	7	6	26		Defense	22.4	18	10	25
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	5	25	2	16		Chicago Bears	23	12	16	20
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Marshall	56	31	5	349		Edelman	65	44	1	453
Jeffery	53	33	2	504		Amendola	11	5	1	42
Holmes	13	7	0	56		LaFell	39	19	3	337
Bennett	58	41	4	422		Gronkowski	56	31	4	409

Quick Grind

•Gary Oldman Seal of Approval: Target Everyone!
•High Vegas total = fantasy goodness
•Target passing attack for both teams

Chicago Bears

RB Matt Forte

Matt Forte went for 100+ total yards and 2 TDs last week? Yawn. He must have been really slacking to have only 6 catches last week.

Matt Forte’s completely obnoxious performance are probably turning us into PPR elitists. We should be privy to yet another monstrous dual-threat performance this week, as Forte shouldn’t meet much resistance on the ground vs a Pats defense that allows the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs. This Pats team just got bulldozed for 100+ by Chris Ivory and the Jets, and has given up 200+ yards to RBs in 3 separate games this season. Literally the only thing that could hold Forte back this week is Brandon Marshall’s Squeaky Wheel Circus (see below), but don’t worry too much – Forte remains the engine of the Bears offense. He’s a no-brainer elite RB play this week.

WR Brandon Marshall

NARRATIVE STREET ALERT… PART THREE!

I’m thinking about implementing a color-coded Narrative Street Alert system for Brandon Marshall, as so far in 2014 he’s hitting every narrative in the book: underutilized (and went off the next week), faced his former team (and did very little), and now has called out both his team’s effort and his quarterback.

I see very little chance that Cutler doesn’t live and die by force-feeding Marshall this week, despite the possibility of shadow coverage from Darrelle Revis. To be honest, I don’t anticipate Revis to shadow now that Brandon Browner has returned, which should leave Marshall to do battle with Browner outside, and feast on lesser Pats DBs in the slot. Marshall is a narrative-fueled top-5 play at WR this week.

WR Alshon Jeffery

Alshon went from a 5-136 Week 6 to just 2 catches for 9 yards last week. Hopefully Jeffery’s owners from last week are outraged, and won’t be going back the big WR this week. That’s the wrong decision of course, as I think we’ll look back on Week 6 as just a rare outlier. The unfortunate part about Jeffery’s prospects for a bounce back is the impending coverage of Darrelle Revis. If Revis doesn’t shadow Marshall, he’ll likely stick to his side, where he should see Jeffery a majority of the time. Jeffery has a significant size advantage on Revis, but it still makes for a risky play. Don’t shy away from Alshon if you’re rolling out Bears stacks, but do be careful with your exposure this week in case Revis can shut him down.

TE Martellus Bennett

Bennett’s production has leveled off of late to the point where it seems we can expect 4-5 catches for 50-60 yards as a floor:

We were spoiled a bit by Bennett’s early season production but shouldn’t have any problem with 5-60 and the threat of a TD every week. Coincidently, that’s basically exactly what the Pats allow on average (5.0 catches, 60.4 yards per game), perhaps suggesting that Bennett should be able to push his floor even higher this week. Despite the strong floor, it does put Bennett awkwardly between the clearly elite TEs and the upside punt plays. He’s a strong play as usual.

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

The entire world expected Gronk to Smash last week, so naturally he only provded us with 5 catches for 68 yards. The bounce back smash should come this week vs the Bears TE-vulnerable defense: the Bears allow the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs and are dealing with injuries at the wrong positions against the wrong playfully dominant TE. Gronk is the top TE play this week.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman had a few uncharacteristic drops last week or his 4-44 day would have been about to the level we expect. His production feels more inconsistent than it last year, despite Edelman being option 1B in the passing game. Edelman remains a strong full PPR play, but there are higher upside options in his price range this week.

RB Shane Vereen

Shane Vereen quickly settled the Pats RB mystery last week with 114 total yards and 2 receiving TDs. It resulted in an unfortunate price hike, as I don’t think Vereen will see the opportunities to pay off his salary until it drops back down on full PPR sites. He should have a solid performance on full PPR sites, but you might be better served looking elsewhere at RB until his price falls.

QB Tom Brady

Brady is still making a lot of people look really, really silly for writing him off after a slow start to 2014. Check out his last 3 game logs:

Hard to argue with high yardage, multi-TD, zero turnover consistency. Brady’s success should continue this week vs the Bears, who have allowed the 10th-most FPPG. Kyle Fuller, the Bears outstanding rookie CB will also be limited this week as he attempts to play through a broken hand (says a lot about what the Bears have behind Fuller). So long as the Pats O-line keeps Brady clean, he should be in for another 20+ point performance this week.

NFL Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3