NFL Grind Down: Week 9 - Page Four

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-11-02 10:02:47

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

St. Louis Rams						San Francisco 49ers
Sun – 4:05 PM						CenturyLink Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	44	17.25				-9.5	44	26.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.4	26	20	21		Offense	22.6	19	15	16
Defense	22.6	19	15	16		Defense	19.4	26	20	21
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
San Francisco 49ers	7	6	23	9		St. Louis Rams	29	12	24	10
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Britt	31	16	1	249		Crabtree	51	32	3	322
Austin	17	14	0	120		Boldin	55	39	1	447
Bailey	8	4	0	53		Johnson	32	25	3	315
Cook	48	27	0	331		Davis	23	14	2	142

Quick Grind

•Vegas thinks Niners/Rams Part Deux is going to be another Niners stomp
•No reason to think Kaep can’t torch this defense again
•Be careful targeting Rams against a 49ers defense that is much healthier now

St. Louis Rams

Rams RB Soup

We go back to the soup theme for Rams RBs after the team indeed utilized a full-blown committee for no apparent reason other than that they said they would. It failed miserably. Regardless of who gets first cracker (soup theme!) this week, I can’t recommend them against the Niners, who allow the 5th-fewest FPPG and rushing yards to RBs. Avoid the Rams Soup this week and target clear-cut entrees instead – I suggest trying the Bengal (Jeremy Hill).

TE Jared Cook

There’s really nothing else left in Saint Louis now that Brian Quick is done for the year. Even Jared Cook might become an irrelevant option this week if All-World LB Patrick Willis is active (he’s a GTD). Willis is like a Terminator whose sole mission is to eradicate TE production.

San Francisco 49ers

QB Colin Kaepernick

We last saw Kaepernick and the 49ers back in Week 7 against the Broncos. I expressed a lot of concern over various matchup issues for the 49ers and told everyone who would listen to fade them, and sure enough they got stomped. Kaep in particular was unspectacular, as the Broncos instant pass-rush completely neutralized his running ability and made him one dimensional against one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Now Kaep and Co have had a week to ruminate on their beat-down, get healthy at crucial weak points, and prepare to again stomp the St Louis Rams, who they will play for the 2nd time in 4 weeks. In that game we saw Kaep go 22/36 for 343 yards and 3 TDs, while adding 37 yards on the ground. Not too many moving pieces since that game. The Rams may be without starting CB Janoris Jenkins (who you may remember gave up the 80 yard TD to Brandon Lloyd before halftime), but will get 2013 starting CB Trumaine Johnson back for the first time this season. The Niners will have All-Pro LG Mike Iupati back, but lost their starting center for the season a week after last playing the Rams. All told, besides some offensive line and cornerback shuffling, there’s nothing major that would swing the balance away from the outcome we saw last time. Kaep again makes a strong option against these Rams, and may see some extra production on the ground after watching film from Week 7, when the Rams promptly gave up a massive performance to Russell Wilson. There have been some interesting designed QB runs popping up on occasion in 49ers games, and clearly the Rams have problems maintaining discipline when the QB is an able runner. Even without the hypothetical’s, Kaep is a high-ceiling option this week, and his penchant for bullying weak defenses make him viable in cash games as well.

49ers WRs

Matchups usually dictate which of the 49ers receivers will be featured, if any at all, in a given week. But since the dawn of time, Anquan Boldin has been torturing the Rams, and did so again in Week 6 with a 7-94-1 smacking in which he caught at least one pass against 5 different Rams defenders. He’s a sneaky high-floor play.

Crabtree has to be hurt, doesn’t he? Less snaps, less targets, less production. I’m hopeful the bye was enough to get him right. Until we see it, be careful using him in DFS. Recall that he did roast returning CB Trumaine Johnson for a 60 yard play last season though.

It’s tough to justify using either Brandon Lloyd or Stevie Johnson given their inconsistent targets and production, but both receive looks and have converted on either big plays or routes in the end-zone. They’re prayer GPP plays.

TE Vernon Davis

We haven’t seen much from Vernon this season, but if he’s healthy, he can torch the entirety of this secondary. It wouldn’t surprise me to see multiple deep shots to Vernon as surprise plays that the 49ers cooked up over the bye. Despite the threat of a high ceiling, Davis is a risky GPP play given his inconsistent health, usage, and production.

RB Frank Gore

As much as I hate to admit it, Frank is finally starting to fade as a starting RB in the NFL. The 49ers have seen it for a while, evident in the drafting of Carlos Hyde in April, and in the rookie’s steady leaching of Gore’s carries in increasingly high-leverage situations. Frank managed just 38 yards on 16 carries back in the Week 6 meeting of these teams, but should get another crack at the Rams run defense that is fresh off allowing 117 yards and 2 TDs to Jamaal Charles. With Mike Iupati back, the 49ers could do more bulldozing upfront for their runners — which has always helped Frank utilize his elite vision and patience instead of relying on his athleticism from the snap. It’s never been a good idea to count out Frank Gore in a divisional tilt, but with his dwindling carries and effectiveness, as well as Kaep showing that he’s capable handling this defense by himself, I would be hesitant to suggest Frank in any format at the moment.

RB Carlos Hyde

If you like predicting blowouts and taking backups who will see additional garbage volume, look at Carlos Hyde. He’s seeing additional carries anyway, and sees snaps at awfully important times. I think he’ll start punching more TDs in soon, and would be a GPP punt if the route is on this week.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Denver Broncos						New England Patriots
Sun – 4:25 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-3	55	29				3	55	26
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	32.0	1	1	15		Offense	29.8	3	5	24
Defense	29.8	3	5	24		Defense	32.0	1	1	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	9	28	1	21		Denver Broncos	24	9	13	25
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Thomas	76	47	6	767		Edelman	69	45	1	467
Welker	24	19	1	181		Amendola	13	7	1	47
Sanders	60	47	4	634		LaFell	50	30	4	461
Thomas	42	30	9	327		Gronkowski	65	40	7	558

Quick Grind

•Monstrous Vegas total, impending shootout, chuck full O’ playmakers… Target Everyone!
•Keep an eye on any news about how either team will try to lock down certain players with their impact defenders (i.e NE CB Darrelle Revis & DEN CBs Aqib Talib & Chris Harris)
•Monitor the weather

A General Note On This Game: this game will likely be plagued by bad weather, with possible rain and likely 20-30 mph winds. That will seriously impact that passing of both teams, but may have more of an effect on the wobbly throws of Peyton Manning. Savvy pivots for offense in this game would be to each team’s running game, or receivers who act as extensions of the run game via screens, etc.

Denver Broncos

QB Peyton Manning

Peyton added another ho hum 286 yards and 3 TDs against the Chargers last week, and was probably daydreaming about this week’s matchup for most of that game. Manning faces archrival Brady yet again this week, but we don’t care about that particular angle; we care about Manning’s prospects vs the Pats defense, a defense with an added wrinkle this year: CB Darrelle Revis. Even if Revis completely locks down one of Manning’s weapons – he will simply target the others. So expect the Patriots to go back to their max coverage gambit that they used last year, and try to coax out a run-first game plan from the Broncos. That, and the potential threat of the weather, are the only things holding Manning back this week. In a game with a monstrous 55 point total, and the likely necessity to keep scoring, Manning is an easy choice as the top QB play.

Broncos WRs

The Broncos WRs run into an interesting roadblock this week in the form of CB Darrelle Revis, who will undoubtedly lock to either Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders for the entirety of the game. So who will it be? I’m not convinced that Revis can actually lock down the physically superior Demaryius for an entire game, whereas he’d have a much better chance to dominate the more manageable Emmanuel Sanders. The Pats would then scramble to bracket Demaryius for the entire game, keeping a constant press on him to disrupt both his routes and the potential for him to have easy success in the screen game, and concede single coverage to players like Welker. In any case, there is a bit of risk in both Broncos WRs this week, because Belichick will use everything short of witchcraft to shut down the Broncos crucial outside WR duo. It’s tricky for us because whoever ISN’T focused has great potential to be Peyton’s favorite target and thus go off. So keep an eye on any news about coverage assignments before game time, and take your best shot. This game has the potential to support multiple explosive performances.

TE Julius Thomas

The one Bronco who likely gets a free pass from any sort of shutdown matchup is TE Julius Thomas. The Pats simply don’t have the horses to keep up with Orange Julius, and will likely be forced to get creative with combo coverages and chips from all angles to disrupt Thomas’s rhythm and routes. That said, if this approach fails for but a moment Thomas will make the Pats pay. He’s without question a top-2 TE this week.

RB Ronnie Hillman

Hillman is a bit of a dark horse this week. he’s been great both on film and in the box score lately, and now will likely be the ‘rock’ in the ‘rock and a hard place’ where Peyton has to choose between shifting to a rushing attack or throwing into stacked coverage. Hillman also has the weather issue in his favor, in which Manning’s wobbly deep balls might not play in the gusty conditions, resulting in further volume for Hillman. For such a high scoring game, there sure seem to be a lot of scenarios in which Hillman could be a strong contributor this week. He has risen all the way to the fringe of the elite RBs as a top-8 play this week.

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

Better late than never – Gronk smashed the absolute hell out of the Bears last week, to the tune of 9 catches for 149 yards, 3 TDs, and countless slain Bears left in his wake. Gronk won Grinders oodles of money last week, and will certainly do so again, with playful effortlessness, because he is a monster with the ball in his hands. This week Gronk faces an infinitely better defense in the Broncos, but happens to play the position that has been their Achilles heal (see Gates, Antonio).There’s always a chance the Broncos get weird and put someone like Aqib Talib on Gronk, but I don’t see that working (yes, I know what Talib did to Jimmy Graham; Never Forget), and reports are that Gronk was whipping Talib in 1-on-1s last season anyway. Expect some sort of bracket coverage, disruptions at the line by LBs, or some combination, because a Wild Gronk simply cannot be allowed to roam free. The possibility of these overcompensating coverages give Gronk a bit of risk, but his ceiling is still massive, and he’s still the top TE play this week.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman had just one catch last week, and was often seen just quitting on his routes and watching Gronk with popcorn in hand. In an actually competitive game this week, Edelman should get back to business, but might not offer much against the new-look Broncos secondary. If the Broncos do NOTHING special to Gronk, Edelman will likely see rookie CB Bradley Roby during his slot work, though I could see a scenario where they try to lock Edelman down with one of their two elite corners as well. This, and the Gronk scheming is all hypothetical because we haven’t seen the Broncos make such adjustments, they just have the personnel to do so. Assuming Edelman primarily sees Roby in coverage, he should be able to put together a solid high-floor line on full PPR sites. But his inconsistency remains concerning

WR Brandon LaFell

Remember when Brandon LaFell used to just suck for the Panthers? Neither do the Patriots or LaFell, who put together another beastly performance, catching all 11 of his targets for 124 yards and a TD. It’s awesome to see LaFell developing as a new player and weapon for the Pats, but I think he probably comes crashing back to Earth this week against the elite coverage duo of Chris Harris and Aqib Talib. He a very risky play this week.

RB Shane Vereen

Vereen let Jonas Gray run the RB show last week but will undoubtedly be a key cog in the Pats attack this week. Unlike being able to shut down WRs with their elite corners, the Broncos don’t have the equivalent player to cover receiving RBs or TEs (see Gronk section). This is especially notable for Vereen, who will split out wide, run wheel routes, and just generally mess your day up on defense in ways a RB shouldn’t be able to do. He’s a strong full PPR play this week.

QB Tom Brady

Tom Brady went 30/35 for 354 yards and 5TDs vs the Bears last week. Completely dominant. Destroyed them. But that’s all irrelevant now as he faces likely the best secondary he’ll see all season until these teams meet again in the playoffs. Depending on the Broncos approach, they’ll likely be able to remove a few of Brady’s favorite toys, and will test a shaky offensive line with what sometimes seems like ‘Instant Pass Rush ™’. I worry less about Brady than I have about Kaepernick or Rivers in past weeks, but there is still risk here against an elite pass-killing defense. Regardless, Brady should be popular as this is the marquee game of the week and has a massive 55 point total. It screams shootout of course, and if you believe that will be the outcome, roster Brady confidently as a top-5 option. But be sure to consider both the matchup AND the weather before you lock Brady in.

RB Jonas Gray

I listed Jonas Gray as a salary relief option in the plays chart for NE/NYJ last week, but other than me, I don’t think anyone on the planet played him. The short story with Gray is that he’s a 5’10, 225 lb, undrafted rookie who has been installed as the Steven Ridley replacement in the Pats offense. And so far he looks like a good fit, with solid RB traits and feel to go along with good size and power. If the weather is truly limiting this week, Gray should carry the load. It’s a horrible matchup, but after giving the rook 17 carries last week, it seems the Pats trust him in a volume role.

Oakland Raiders at Seattle Seahawks

Oakland Raiders						Seattle Seahawks
Sun – 4:25 PM						Candlestick Park
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		15.5	42.5	13.5				-15.5	42.5	29
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	15.0	31	25	32		Offense	24.6	13	21	4
Defense	24.6	13	21	4		Defense	15.0	31	25	32
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Seattle Seahawks	8	10	5	28		Oakland Raiders	17	29	11	14
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Jones	54	36	3	425		Baldwin	43	29	1	371
Holmes	41	23	4	372		Kearse	28	16	1	233
Moore	23	11	0	87		Lockette	8	6	2	107
Rivera	33	20	0	184		Willson	15	7	1	63

Quick Grind

•Vegas projects the Seahawks will stomp
•The Seahawks have favorable matchups for both their rushing and passing attack

Oakland Raiders

WR Andre Holmes

Holmes is again my favorite Raiders target of the week. He should be able to avoid Sherman more than the other Raiders WRs. He also carries significant big play potential, though expectations of such plays should be tempered with safety Earl Thomas holding court on the back-end of the defense. Still, if there’s a Raider that will rack up garbage time production in chunks, it’s Holmes. He’s a risky GPP WR.

WR James Jones

Jones was again a garbage-time beneficiary last week, but might not even get scraps this week vs Richard Sherman. Avoid him.

RB Darren McFadden

Darren McFadden runs behind the 3rd-worst run-blocking offensive line and faces the team that has the 11th-best run-defense grade and allows the 8th-fewest rushing yards and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs. There’s nothing left to see here.

Seattle Seahawks

QB Russell Wilson

Wilson had a game to forget last week, and has the prefect opportunity to do so with the Raiders on deck. The Raiders pose an intriguing philosophical question to opposing teams, in that they can be smacked by both the run and the pass – a team must choose how best to go about the stomping. Since most teams have chosen the rushing approach, the Raiders DVP vs QBs looks better than what it would if more teams would try, or even need, to barrage the Raiders secondary like Phil Rivers did for 326 yards and 3 TDs in Week 6. Wilson kind of has a blank canvas here in which he can likely abuse the Raiders with his newfound scrambling tendencies, and also carve them up through the air. Ultimately that means Wilson has a high ceiling but unknown floor, as the Seahawks could simply feed Marshawn Lynch like they’ve been suggesting they’ll do for weeks now. The threat of Wilson unleashing with his legs like he did against the Rams gives him exceptional GPP upside this week, but the blowout risk makes him a less ideal play compared to some of his high-passing-volume peers.

RB Marshawn Lynch

Every week, Marshawn Lynch ends up with a puzzling amount of carries and yards, and every week, the Hawks coaches pledge to get him more involved. Eventually they just need to FEED THE BEAST and get it over with. That time is now. Lynch should see little resistance from the injury-ravaged, pushover Raiders defense, that was easily the most generous to RBs before Ben Tate took a 60 minute nap against them in Week 8. If the Hawks turn Lynch loose in this game, he will eat to his heart’s content – be sure you keep the possibility in mind when building both cash and GPP lineups this week.

WR Doug Baldwin

Baldwin is without question the top receiving option in the wake of Percy Harvin’s trade. Unfortunately, the Hawks remain a low-volume passing team, so even as the unquestioned #1, Baldwin will occasionally have little to work with, which can seriously sabotage him on a weekly basis. The matchup this week is one that Baldwin will unquestionably win, it’s simply a matter of how many times he’ll be given an opportunity to do so, and then also be rewarded for it. On a matchup level Baldwin has a sneaky high ceiling for such an unknown WR, but he also carries weekly volatility due to the Hawks offensive scheme.

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