NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week Ten - Page 2
Cincinnati at Baltimore
| Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | M&T Bank Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| -1 | 44.5 | 22.75 | 1 | 44.5 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.1 | 14 | 7 | 19 | Offense | 21.0 | 21 | 15 | 29 | |
| Defense | 18.4 | 6 | 11 | 10 | Defense | 21.5 | 10 | 14 | 8 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Baltimore | 18 | 1 | 21 | 19 | Cincinnati | 10 | 5 | 14 | 6 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Green | 104 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 19.0 | Smith | 70 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 8.0 | |
| Sanu | 46 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 9.0 | Brown | 43 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | |
| Jones | 41 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | Doss | 27 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.0 | |
| Gresham | 46 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 7.0 | Clark | 40 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | |
Cincinnati Bengals
For the Bengals, the loss on Thursday night football was tough but the injury to Geno Atkins could end up meaning more than just the one game vs. Miami. Atkins is on IR and the pro-bowl defensive lineman’s injury leaves a gaping hole in their rush defense. Atkins rated out as the 5th best defensive tackle in PFF’s DT ratings and had 20 tackles with 5 QB hurries and a sack on the season. 2nd year player Brandon Thompson will likely draw the start but he’s unlikely to create the same fear in opposing running and quarterbacks that Atkins brings.
On offense, Dalton threw for his 4th consecutive 300+ yard game on Thursday night but didn’t manage to find the end zone and lost three interceptions against a pretty good Miami secondary. A.J. Green ran wild, catching 11 balls for 128 yards and Gio Bernard also put together a monster game, totaling 104 yards and 2 scores. The Bengals have a lot of really impressive weapons but with the O/U set at just 44.5 against a tough Ravens defense, and on the road, I’d probably leave those weapons to GPPs only.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Ravens are vulnerable in the passing game but they have allowed at least 1 passing touchdown to opposing QBs for the last 6 weeks. Consider Dalton in GPPs this weekend, but only if priced in the middle-tier of Quarterbacks.
- RB – I love Bernard and his PPR-ability but the Ravens are #1 in the NFL against running backs so I’d avoid him this weekend.
- WR – A.J. Green struggled against the Ravens in 2 games last year, catching 7 total balls for 76 yards in two games, but he’s gone for over 100 yards in each of his last 4 games and is definitely capable of being the top WR any given week. I actually like Marvin Jones a lot this week as the Ravens rank 27th against WR2’s and he could be flying under the radar after the Bengals played on Thursday night football last week.
- TE – Jermaine Gresham missed another practice on Thursday and if he sits, consider Tyler Eifert as a GPP value option this weekend who would see a huge bump in targets and snaps.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have dropped to 3-5 on the season after an embarrassing loss to Cleveland in Week 9. The running game was awful, totaling 30 yards across three backs. The continuous struggles of Baltimore to be effective on the ground have them ranked dead last in PFF’s offensive rushing ratings. Ray Rice appears to be a shell of his former self and has had over 50 rushing yards one time all season. Through the air, teams are stacking up against Torrey Smith and telling Flacco to burn them elsewhere, something he really hasn’t been able to do. They’ve now gone 3 consecutive games without scoring more than 18 points and something has to change on offense if they want to claw their way back into the playoffs. With that said, Flacco seems to be a 2nd half type of player (remember that SuperBowl run?) and might be able to find that magic touch with the offense again, although the fight will be a little more challenging with less weapons.
On defense, it’s no surprise they still rank in the Top-10 in points allowed. They’re second in the NFL at getting after the QB as well, averaging 3.5 sacks per game. Their front seven is well above-average, but their defensive backs have struggled at times this season. We all saw what Manning did to them in Week 1, but even Jason Campbell was able to move the ball for 262 passing yards and 3 TD passes. To add to those concerns, Jimmy Smith left last week with an injury and didn’t return. His status is one to monitor as a key member of the Ravens nickel defensive packages.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Cincy has fared well against opposing quarterbacks all season and Flacco just hasn’t been posting the numbers to be a fantasy factor. I’m avoiding until he shows more signs of life.
- RB – The Bengals have boasted the best RZ defense so far in the NFL and both of these backs are struggling. I’m avoiding Ravens running backs in any format, even with the Atkins injury.
- WR – Torrey Smith can hit his value in one play for any given game but he’s been the focal point of defenses with the Ravens inability to run the ball. Marlon Brown could be in play after grabbing 2 TDs last week with 5 catches and 54 total yards. He’s been one of Flacco’s favorite red zone targets.
- TE – Dallas Clark saw just 1 target last weekend and his upside is pretty limited.
Buffalo at Pittsburgh
| Buffalo Bills | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 3.5 | 43 | 19.75 | -3.5 | 43 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.0 | 21 | 28 | 7 | Offense | 19.5 | 25 | 8 | 28 | |
| Defense | 26.2 | 24 | 18 | 17 | Defense | 26.0 | 23 | 4 | 31 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh | 8 | 24 | 7 | 13 | Buffalo | 22 | 4 | 31 | 5 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 8.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | Brown | 82 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.0 | ||
| Woods | 61 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 8.0 | Sanders | 68 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 11.0 | |
| Graham | 32 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 4.0 | Wheaton | 6 | 1.5 | |||
| Chandler | 54 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 9.0 | Miller | 34 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
Buffalo Bills
Last week was tough for Buffalo fans, as a halftime lead evaporated in a flash and a 100 yard fumble recovery flipped their potential upset vs. KC upside down. They’re now averaging 2.3 turnovers per game over the last 3 weeks and they should be pleased to see E.J. Manuel returning to practice this week. The offense with Manuel at the helm was at least able to consistently move the ball. The big concern here will be the receivers this week, as both Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods may not play. Woods is a bit of a disappointment, since he had become one of Manuel’s favorite targets and would have made for a big upside play on Sunday. Let’s take a look at the rest of Manuel’s favorite targets through those first five weeks:
- Stevie Johnson – 37 targets
- Robert Woods – 39 targets
- T.J. Graham – 17 targets
- Fred Jackson – 21 targets
- CJ Spiller – 12 targets (11 in Wks 1 and 2)
- Scott Chandler – 27 targets
It looks like Chandler and Johnson would see the majority of looks from Manuel in the event that Woods sits against Pittsburgh.
On defense, outside of ability to get after the QB (9th in the NFL with 3.1 sacks per game), there hasn’t been much to talk about for Buffalo. They quieted Alex Smith last weekend, but have struggled against any above-average QB/passing game this season. They’ve allowed 7 QBs to throw for multi-TD games as well. Against the run, it’s pretty much the same story. They haven’t exactly been torched by opposing running backs since Week 3 vs. Bilal Powell, but they have struggled more against pass-catching backs like Shane Vereen and Giovani Bernard.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Manuel was a strong game manager in the early going for Buffalo but his fantasy stats were never through the roof. He was under 200 yards passing in 3 of 5 starts.
- RB – The Steelers rush defense is a shell of its former self and Fred Jackson has been a machine for the Bills. Even CJ Spiller got it going again last week and either one of them could be used in tournaments this weekend.
- WR – If you’re looking to play a Bills WR, Stevie Johnson should see a boost in opportunities with Woods unlikely to play. Beyond him, I’d avoid Buffalo’s wideouts.
- TE – Scott Chandler has a decent matchup this week but has caught just 1 TD all season and doesn’t have enough upside to be relevant.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers allowed a franchise-record 55 points in New England last week and will undoubtedly be returning home to a fan base that can’t be too pleased with such a weak defensive effort. The once unbeatable Troy Polamalu has been exposed as too slow to keep up anymore and his once exciting stunts have been unraveled and used against him by opposing quarterbacks. Go back and watch almost all of the Patriots TD passes and you’ll see, he repeatedly failed to do his job and help over the top. Anyways, this combined with an aging linebacker corps has lead to a Steelers defense that is more vulnerable than ever. This is just one of the reasons why the vaunted Steeler defense ranks 26th in the NFL in points allowed, and you can’t underestimate their front seven’s struggles. They’ve now allowed back to back running backs to go for multiple scores.
On offense, Roethlisberger put together over 400 passing yards playing catch up last week. Jerricho Cotchery snagged 3 scores and was actually one of the most productive receivers in the entire NFL last weekend. Antonio Brown caught another, but was benched at the end of the game when he missed an assignment leading to a Patriots interception on a pass that had me wondering if maybe Big Ben got into the whiskey on the sideline before throwing it. Emmanuel Sanders continues to be heavily targeted as well and saw 11 looks going for 6 receptions and 98 yards. The most productive Steeler might have been Le’Veon Bell though, who took an opportunity to be more involved in the passing game and ran with it, going for 65 yards on 4 catches, making his total over 130 yards on the day.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Roethlisberger has had some huge games this season and has 3 games of 380 yards or more and is a terrific GPP play given his upside. His ceiling is high but his consistency is low, so I’d leave him out of any cash games this week.
- RB – The Bills front 7 has been tough against the run but they are vulnerable to pass-catching backs and Bell has caught 4 and 5 balls over the last 2 weeks. His value is a bit higher on full point PPR sites.
- WR – Antonio Brown is in play as Big Ben’s favorite target, but was benched after his blown assignment last week. He’s pricey but should bounce back nicely in this one and is worth playing in any format. I continue to heavily use Emmanuel Sanders as he’s targeted a bunch and has big upside for tournament games.
- TE – Heath Miller is a boom or bust type play whose boom isn’t as big as it used to be. He’s seeing about 5 targets a week and should be avoided against a tough Bills defense vs. TEs.
Jacksonville at Tennessee
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | LP Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 13 | 41 | 14 | -13 | 41 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 10.8 | 32 | 19 | 31 | Offense | 21.6 | 20 | 24 | 15 | |
| Defense | 33.0 | 32 | 12 | 32 | Defense | 20.9 | 9 | 7 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tennessee | 4 | 27 | 1 | 22 | Jacksonville | 31 | 32 | 15 | 30 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Shorts | 86 | 10.8 | 11.5 | Wright | 63 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 5.0 | ||
| Sanders | 31 | 4.6 | 1.0 | Washington | 56 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Brown | 23 | 5.5 | 7.0 | Hunter | 11 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||
| Lewis | 6 | 2.0 | 3.0 | Walker | 36 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | ||
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags come off the bye week without a single win in 2013 and now without perhaps their most talented player in Justin Blackmon who was suspended indefinitely, and at least for the remainder of the year. It’s definitely a hit to their passing game, but expect Cecil Shorts to continue to see tons of targets. There isn’t a whole lot of good to talk about with the Jags, as they rank near the bottom of every defensive and offensive category there is. ProFootballFocus has them as the 32nd rated offense and defense through 9 weeks. In better news, their special teams unit is only 29th so they have that going for them.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – The Titans have one of the best secondaries in all of football. I’m avoiding.
- RB – MJD is still fantasy relevant and you can’t convince me otherwise. The Titans are soft up front and MJD coming off a bye week should be well rested. The biggest upside here, is that Jones-Drew catches the ball out of the backfield. He may not rush for 100+ yards, but in Week 8 he caught 6 balls for 47 yards. On full point PPR sites thats an additional 10 points and add on 70ish rushing yards and he’s surpassed value for his cheap price.
- WR – Like I mentioned with QBs and will discuss further down, the Titans are REALLY good in pass coverage and with Blackmon out, the only guarantee is that Shorts will be targeted a lot. I’m not sure his conversion rate increases though. For future weeks, consider Mike Brown and Ace Sanders with no Blackmon.
- TE – If you think the Jags will be chasing behind a large deficit, Marcedes Lewis may be the best passing option for Chad Henne. Jared Cook found the endzone last week, becoming the 5th TE to catch a TD vs. Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
The Titans shocked a lot of people last week by reviving life into Chris Johnson AND Shonn Greene in the same game. They ran all over the Rams, and only passed on 43% of downs. Overall, they’ve been focused on moving the ball through the ground in 2013, ranking 5th in rush play percentage in the NFL. Their rush block rating on PFF is 7th in the NFL and that aspect is definitely the strength of the Titans offense. Through the air, you never really know what you’re going to get from Jake Locker. He goes for 326 yards against a 49ers defense that’s probably tougher than the Rams defense he threw for 185 with 2 INTs against.
On defense, watching their secondary play is impressive. Both Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty are ranked in the Top-5 in ProFootballFocus’s pass coverage ratings for Corners and have been shutting down receivers all season. They’ve yet to allow a single quarterback to throw for over 300 yards and only 1 receiver has gone for over 100 yards against them. Their rush defense is a different story. Zac Stacy shredded them last weekend and they’ve now allowed multiple rushing TDs to an opposing back in 3 consecutive games, along with at least 70 yards in each of those.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Locker is absolutely in play given the matchup against Jacksonville. Also take into account his extremely drastic home/road passing splits on the season:
Locker Road: 3 GP, 458 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 2 INT
Locker Home: 3 GP, 768 PaYd, 6 PaTD, 1 INT
- RB – Have to like Johnson and Greene’s chances against the team ranking last in the NFL in FPPG-allowed to running backs. Johnson could be used in H2H or 50/50 formats this week while Greene and his red zone touches are best reserved for GPPs at a low price tag.
- WR – The guy I’m targeting here is Kendall Wright. Coach Mike Munchak spoke highly of Wright on Wednesday and he’s been the Titans best receiving option. This Jags defense can be beat by pretty much any position, but Wright has maybe the most upside this week of any Titans offensive option. Beyond Wright, I’d also consider Nate Washington as a GPP play despite his 0fer last week.
- TE – Delanie Walker isn’t seeing consistent targets, but the matchup is solid. I still don’t see his ceiling being above 3-4 catches for 60 yards and a TD though (at his absolute best).
Oakland at NY Giants
| Oakland Raiders | New York Giants | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 7 | 43.5 | 18.25 | -7 | 43.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.2 | 28 | 30 | 4 | Offense | 17.6 | 30 | 13 | 30 | |
| Defense | 24.9 | 19 | 25 | 6 | Defense | 27.9 | 28 | 16 | 9 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| NY Giants | 21 | 12 | 19 | 23 | Oakland | 29 | 15 | 29 | 16 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Moore | 59 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 11.0 | Cruz | 77 | 9.6 | 8.5 | ||
| Ford | 15 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Nicks | 68 | 8.4 | 11.0 | ||
| Streater | 41 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | Randle | 47 | 5.6 | 2.0 | ||
| Rivera | 27 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | Myers | 37 | 4.9 | 3.5 | ||
Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are coming off a tough home loss to Philadelphia where they allowed Nick Foles to throw 7 touchdown passes against a defense that had been seemingly improved so far this season. What Foles exposed was an overlying issue of the Raiders inability to sustain pass coverage, and their pass defense ranks 26th worst in the NFL on PFF’s ratings. Their rush defense has been hit or miss, having allowed 100+ rushing yards in 5 of 8 games this season and under 40 rush yards in the other three. It looks on tape like a unit that had some good fortune early in the season and is now returning to a more expected level.
Offensively, the big question mark is Darren McFadden, who left last week and is listed as questionable right now. Injuries are certainly nothing new to McFadden, but if he sits the guy to own is PPR machine Rashad Jennings. If McFadden goes, I would be shocked if he sees a full workload given his affinity for injuries throughout his career, and fully expect the Raiders to play it cautiously with him moving forward. Terrelle Pryor also left last week’s game but he looks like a go for a passing offense that ranks in the bottom-5 in the NFL. Their strength has been in the run game, where both Pryor and McFadden/Jennings have excelled heavily. Look for a large dose of the run game combined with some deep balls to Denarius Moore to be the game plan for Oakland almost every week. They don’t do much over the middle of the field, but Rod Streater has been playing well and serving as an added threat for Pryor and this offense.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – Pryor is a GPP play, regardless of opponent, because of his ability to break the long run and throw for a good amount of yards. He has a good matchup and should be trailing this week, so I like him a lot on 2 QB sites for tournaments.
- RB – If McFadden sits, Rashad Jennings will be an extremely popular play. If McFadden plays, I’d avoid the entire situation as the Raiders are likely to be cautious with their featured back.
- WR – Denarius Moore and Rod Streater are the only two receivers with any fantasy value for the Raiders. I actually like how many looks Streater has seen over the past couple weeks and think he could be a nice cheap play.
- TE – The Giants struggle vs. TE’s but Mychal Rivera isn’t given enough opportunities to be relevant.
New York Giants
The Giants come off their bye week following back-to-back wins where their defense allowed a total of 14 points. It’s pretty surprising considering just how poor they had been to that point, allowing at least 27 points in each of their first 6 games en route to an 0-6 start. Despite their struggles, the defense that has stood out over the last couple games has actually been one of the best against the run, ranking fourth on PFF and since getting torched in Weeks 1-3 they haven’t allowed a single back to go over 65 yards. Their pass defense is another issue, and they allowed multi-TD passes in each of their first 6 losing efforts.
Offensively, most of their early struggles could be put squarely on the shoulders of Eli Manning who was turning the ball over at an alarming rate. They rank 30th in scoring offense and 30th in rushing offense, which should see a nice boost this weekend with the expected return of Andre Brown. Brown brings a legitimate rushing threat to the Giants, but unless their offensive line improves he’ll be fighting an uphill battle all day.
Fantasy Relevant
- QB – After seeing what Foles did last week, I love Eli this weekend. He’s done a better job of managing the game and I might be crazy to give him another shot but it’s worth the risk in large field events.
- RB – The Raiders are tough against the RB slot and it’s Andre Brown’s first game back so I’d give him a week to settle in before plugging him into lineups.
- WR – Cruz, Nicks, and Randle all have GPP upside but it can be tough to predict which one will post the big numbers. Coming off a bye week, I’d be shocked if the Giants didn’t find a way to get Cruz more involved after a few disappointing games in a row.
- TE – Brandon Myers hasn’t been involved in the passing game since early in the season and should be avoided.