AFC & NFC Championship Odds: Bengals vs Chiefs, 49ers vs Rams Picks
Ladies and gentlemen, how great does it feel to be a fan of the NFL? We are coming off what many are calling the best weekend of NFL football ever, with three underdogs winning on last-second field goals, and the fourth game—well, the fourth game proving to be one of the greatest firefights of the 21st century. You want your modern iteration of Brady v. Manning? You’ve got it with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Let’s just all pray neither gets bit by the injury bug over the next decade or so. Because, frankly, this is terrific entertainment, and it’s fantastic NFL betting material. We’re making money, and enjoying the show while we cash in.
The craziest thing: this past weekend was just Round Two of Four. We still have the conference championships to sort out, and then a week to collectively catch our breath before we crown the next winner of the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
Let’s set the stage. In the NFC, we have old familiar pretty face Jimmy G and the 49ers looking to Cinderella slip past LA’s Bromance of the Year, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, for a ticket to the Big Dance. In the AFC, we have 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on a collision course with their seemingly-unlimited offensive potential, trying to break myriad records while also breaking Mahomes and the Chiefs’ AFC title streak.
Our job is to not just preview these two games—it’s also to look at the odds and pick the best bets from each.
We nailed our Bengals pick Saturday, which took the sting out of missing the OVER. Then we stumbled when the Packers tumbled to the Niners, but enjoyed the easy UNDER there. Ok, 2-2, slow start. But on Sunday, we kicked it into high gear. We swept our three picks in the Rams-Bucs matinee—Rams +2.5, Rams ML, and OVER 48.5—and then hit the OVER in the Chiefs-Bills game by 24.5 points. Of course, the Bills broke our hearts a little—not just killing our 5-0 Sunday sweep, but also killing my Bills over Rams preseason Super Bowl pick (13 seconds, Buffalo, 13 friggin’ seconds). Alas, 6-3 on Divisional Playoff weekend is…(Larry David voice) “pretty, pretty, pretty_ good!”
Let’s keep cruising into the AFC an NFC Championships, compadres. Winning is our way, until the season’s final Sunday. Last weekend wasn’t the last of our gains, and it certainly wasn’t the last of this unbelievably entertaining stretch of action. We are witnessing history with each new game—and we are increasing our bankroll with each new day. With respect to Tom Brady —who’s probably on a golf course or filming new TV ads right now—let’s go!
Conference Championship Odds & Picks
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs -7, O/U 54
I work with a Bengals fan, and he’s one of the humblest football fans I’ve ever met. He almost expects bad things to happen to his squad after all these years. So, he didn’t really even know what to do with himself after Wild Card weekend, when Cincy won its first playoff game in 31 years. Last Saturday, my coworker left at 2:00 p.m., and his parting words to me were “well, I’m gonna go have multiple heart attacks—talk to you guys tomorrow!”
Multiple heart attacks later, the Bengals are one win away from the Super Bowl, having squeaked past the Titans thanks in large part to a couple unfamiliar allies in Cincy: defense and special teams. Joey B’s 348 passing yards didn’t hurt, either, spreading the ball all over the field to a plethora of receivers. Rookie of the Year candidate Ja’Marr Chase had five catches for 109 yards. Second-year stud Tee Higgins had seven for 96. Tight end C.J. Uzomah had seven for 71. Running back Joe Mixon added six catches for 51 to his 14 carries for 54 yards and a score.
But it was Cincy’s D—led by safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell—that kept the Bengals in this game (punter Kevin Huber’s two punts inside the 20 helped, too). And it was kicker Evan McPherson, a 22-year-old nobody 20 weeks ago, who nailed the door shut on the No. 1 seed Titans. It was shower, rinse, repeat for the rookie—four field goal attempts, four perfect strikes, just like in Cincy’s first-round win over Vegas. But this time, the 149th overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft got a big kiss from the No. 1 overall pick of 2020, ‘Pro Bowl Joe’ Burrow.
Are there more celebratory kisses in store? Who even knows!? The Chiefs are a tough squad to bet against, especially after they somehow outlasted the Bills in the most insane ending of all time on Sunday night. After Kansas City and Buffalo combined for an unfathomable 25 points within the final two minutes of regulation—which included three back-and-forth touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and a field goal—Mahomes and his crew went for the kill shot in overtime. Six passes, six completions, end zone. Game, set, historic match.
Mahomes was extraordinary as always, as he very well needed to be against the fully-emerged superstar we know as Josh Allen. The Chiefs’ 2019 MVP and 2020 Super Bowl MVP finished the game 33-of-44 for 378 yards and three TDs, and added seven rushing attempts for 69 yards and a score. Wideout Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce, always brilliant when the lights shine brightest, combined for 246 yards on 19 receptions and two touchdowns. Kelce’s touchdown finished the battle, sparking endless Twitter storms about the league’s overtime rules (my two cents: win in regulation or get an OT stop if you want the win).
Long story short, KC is gonna be a tough out. Arrowhead Stadium is a difficult place for seven-point upsets, never mind seven-point upsets mounted by second-year QBs with 28 career starts. Kansas City is 14-5 this season, and an intimidating 9-2 at home. But there’s hope! The Chiefs are only 10-9 against the spread since the start of the 2021 campaign, whereas Cincy is 12-7 ATS. And Arrowhead may have produced nine wins for the AFC defending-champs, but it only produced six covers in 11 games. Cincinnati, meanwhile, went an incredible 7-2 ATS on the road, and 5-1 ATS as the road underdog.
Then there’s that defense and special teams we saw in Cincy’s awesome win last weekend. It all seems to be coming together at the right time for this Bengals squad. And as we have very well learned over the past four games, defense and special teams still matter… a lot. You don’t need a 21 Savage lyric to know that.
I don’t have the intestinal fortitude to take the Bengals straight up in this one—neither does my ever-so-humble coworker—but I certainly have it in me to bet Cincy +7. Burrow has ice in his veins, as do his many skill-position players and the less-reveled names and faces of his D/ST. Joey B might not have another celebratory post-game kiss in him, but I think he’ll help us to witness another four quarters of competitive football. And that’s something everyone can love.
PICK: Bengals +7, OVER 54.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams -3.5, O/U 46
The Niners don’t care what you think about them. They embrace their constant underdog status. They run the ball even when they lose multiple key cogs of their backfield rotation. They play D like warriors despite a plethora of injuries, dings, bang-ups, and bruises. They prove their perseverance seemingly every year, most recently in a valiant 13-10 Divisional Playoff win over reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the top-seeded Green Bay Packers.
Jimmy Garoppolo did what he does—manage the game, and limit the mistakes. Playmaker extraordinaire Deebo Samuel was grinding against the Pack on the ground and through the air, like he has all season (although with much less fruitful results). Tight end George Kittle came up big in the clutch, and veteran kicker Robbie Gould came up even bigger. But defense was the true story—Rodgers walked away from probably his last game in green with just 20 completions for 225 yards and zero touchdowns. Once again, San Fran had the number of the best player and the best team in football. And once again, San Fran cannot be counted out.
But the 49ers still have a very steep hill to climb. Their neighbors to the south, the LA Rams, have enjoyed a fantastic first year with veteran QB Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp just completed arguably the best regular-season campaign by a wide receiver since Randy Moss. And unlike Moss, he’s pairing it with a fantastic postseason run. Kupp has 14 catches for 244 yards and two TDs through two playoff games, and he won’t slow down until he’s hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in front of the home fans at SoFi Stadium.
The Niners beat the reigning MVP, yeah, but Stafford and Co. just beat the GOAT and reigning champion of the NFL. Tom Brady nearly led his Bucs to victory, but fell short 30-27 in another incredible game. Stafford, Kupp, and midseason acquisition Odell Beckham had a lot to do with this victory—the Rams defense, like always, played a big part as well.
Aaron Donald and Von Miller terrorized Brady’s banged-up offensive line all game, and forced the seven-time champ to dive deep into his bag of tricks late in the game. But in the end, the bromance that is Stafford and Kupp got the last laugh, as the final 44-yard connection between the two led to Matt Gay’s 30-yard game-winning field goal.
I can’t pick against the Rams—they’ve been my pick out of the NFC since preseason, and I think they’re more impressive on both sides of the ball now than they have been in all of 2021-22. It feels like destiny—we very well could be meant to see the Super Bowl champions win on their home turf two seasons in a row. What better trio of superstars to win it all than Stafford, Kupp, and Donald? Sorry, San Fran, your glorious run ends this weekend. Buy a point for LA to be sure—the feisty Niners have gone 8-3 in road games this season, and we know all too well this could come down to another game-winning kick by Gay.
PICK: Rams -3.5, OVER 46
Image Credit: Imagn