Rose Bowl Odds: Alabama vs. Notre Dame Prediction & Picks

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2021-01-01 03:55:56

It was the season that almost didn’t happen, but in the face of unprecedented hurdles, college football made adjustments, pressed on, and defied the odds, ultimately delivering football fans two playoff games to start the New Year with this Friday.

In its seventh installment, the College Football Playoff will include a quartet of previous qualifiers, as No. 1 Alabama takes on No. 4 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl at 4:30 PM ET Friday, followed by No. 2 Clemson versus No. 3 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl at 8:30 PM ET.

The New Year’s Day winners will then meet up on Monday, Jan. 11, in Miami, Fla., for the College Football Playoff national championship game.

College Football Playoff Odds

If you couldn’t tell by the current CFP futures odds at online sportsbooks, oddsmakers don’t expect either semifinal matchup to be particularly close. We’ll touch on the spreads shortly, but for now, consider this:

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter their semifinal matchup with longer odds to win the College Football Playoff National Championship (via DraftKings) than with which they entered the season.

Think about that for a second — according to the odds, the Irish, though technically only two wins away, are no closer to winning the national Championship than they were in September. That’s truly a testament to the dominance of both Alabama and Clemson. It’ll take a surprising upset on Friday to spoil the hopes of another Nick Saban vs. Dabo Swinney national championship game.

Rose Bowl Odds: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

As I’ve already alluded to, the Rose Bowl betting odds won’t give Notre Dame fans much confidence. In fact, since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014, no team has been as heavily favored as the Alabama Crimson Tide are in the 2021 Rose Bowl.

Despite Alabama losing four first-round picks on offense alone to the 2020 NFL draft, Saban’s squad dominated this season from start to finish, winning each regular-season game by a minimum of 15 points. The SEC Championship delivered the Crimson Tide their toughest test yet as Florida finally kept the contest within six points. It may have been their first one-possession victory of the year, but Alabama was in control the entire time. Now, after a one-year hiatus, Saban is back in the College Football Playoff with what some observers say might be his best football team yet.

Heisman Frontrunners

A large part of Alabama’s success can be credited to the quarterback/wide receiver duo made of Mac Jones and Devonta Smith. The two connected 98 times for 1,511 yards and 17 touchdowns, leaving Smith as the prohibitive odds-on favorite (-182 at FOX Bet) to win the Heisman Trophy. If the odds are right, Smith will be the first receiver to give a Heisman Trophy speech since Michigan’s Desmond Howard did so in 1991. Like Howard, Smith is also a threat returning punts.

Next in line on the Heisman odds list? None other than Mac Jones himself. Carrying +200 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, Jones is a little bit more of a longshot than Smith but has shorter odds than the two other finalists, Trevor Lawrence (+700) and Kyle Trask (+3500).

Regardless of who wins the Heisman Trophy in a couple of weeks, Jones and Smith can both take pride in knowing they are the first teammates to be named Heisman finalists since Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson and Jason White in 2004.

Alabama vs. Notre Dame Prediction & Picks

Clearly not many people are giving Notre Dame a chance to win this game, and if history is any indication, it will likely be a blowout.

Eight of the previous 12 semifinal games have been decided by 17 points or more, and the average margin of victory in the semifinals is 21.25 points. Punching their ticket to the big dance for the third time, Notre Dame has been on the wrong end of those semifinal blowouts in each of their previous two appearances. In 2012, Notre Dame lost to Alabama 42-14, and in 2018 they lost to Clemson 30-3.

Unsurprisingly, Alabama bettors have dominated at sportsbooks this season as the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in eight of their 11 games. Notre Dame has been profitable, too, going 6-5 ATS.

As for the upcoming Rose Bowl matchup, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly suggested they would use their offense to play defense, controlling the clock and shortening the game as a way to counter Alabama’s prolific offense.

“We’re not running the Princeton four-corner offense, but we are trying to run our offense which has been one that has traditionally been a ball-control offense,” Kelly said. “That still has to be in our mind in terms of we can’t come into this game and change who we are. The nice part about it is that’s kind of been our DNA this year. We’ll need to continue to do that. We can’t be three-and-out. We want to hold on to the football because we want to play complementary football and keep Alabama’s offense off the field as best we can.”

I hate to be the one to tell Kelly this, but that game plan didn’t work against Clemson in the ACC Championship a few weeks ago. In fact, their 24-point loss resulted, at least in part, from Kelly’s decision to run the ball on early downs rather than passing it, leaving quarterback Ian Book and the offense with too many third and longs that they failed to convert.

If Kelly is seriously sticking with that strategy, then I’m afraid I’ll have to lay the points.

Rose Bowl Pick: Alabama -19.5

Check out more tips for college football betting picks.

Image Credit: Imagn