2020 Heisman Trophy Odds and Picks: Betting Favorites and Longshots
College football heats up this weekend, as SEC teams take the field for the first time all season and Big 12 teams begin conference play. ACC league play has been in action for two weeks, and the Big Ten and Pac 12 will join the festivities later this fall. Despite unusual arrangments and varying protocols and schedules across the country, the College Football Playoff will take place, and voters will name a Heisman Trophy winner.
We’ve already tackled some longshot National Championship picks, but where’s the value when it comes to Heisman Trophy odds at online sports betting sites?
Recent Heisman Trophy Winners, Betting Trends
No one can forget Joe Burrow historic season. A year after transferring from Columbus to Baton Rouge, Burrow not only led the Tigers to a longshot College Football Playoff bid where they would eventually win the National Championship, but Burrow also won the Heisman Trophy after opening as 150-to-1 longshot.
In 2019, Kyler Murray won after carrying 30-to-1 odds into the season, one year after his predecessor, Baker Mayfield, won the award. And in 2016, Lamar Jackson, another preseason triple-digit longshot (100-to-1), stood on stage to accept the prestigious honor.
While preseason Heisman Trophy odds varied among the last four winners, with Mayfield carrying the shortest, they each had two things in common.
First, they were all quarterbacks and dual-threats who utilized their arms and legs to varying degrees. Burrow and Mayfield less so, but both quarterbacks were able keep defenses honest with their feet. Burrow added 368 yards and 5 touchdowns in his Heisman-winning campaign, while Mayfield rushed for 311 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2017. Secondly, none of them were preseason favorites to win the award.
In fact, only three non-quarterbacks — all running backs — have won the Heisman Trophy since 2000. Derrick Henry won in 2015, Mark Ingram in 2009, and Reggie Bush in 2005. And Marcus Mariota was player to give a Heisman Trophy acceptance speech after entering the season as the betting favorite.
More Heisman Trophy Betting Tips
In general, we want to give precedence to quarterbacks on teams with a reasonable chance of contending for a national championship. Since introducing the new postseason format in 2015, Lamar Jackson is the only Heisman Trophy winner who didn’t play in at least the College Football Playoff semifinals.
That doesn’t mean there’s no room for longshots. As Jackson and Burrow have shown to a lesser extent, it’s not unprecedented for longshots to walk away with the Heisman Trophy. This year, with all of 2020’s surprises and peculiarities, there may be more value than ever on longshot Heisman Trophy candidates. Additionally, candidates in the Big 12, SEC, and most notably the ACC, will have a headstart and a leg-up on their Big Ten and Pac 12 competition.
Take the ACC, where teams have already played two games before the SEC takes the field this Saturday. Miami and Clemson will have played five games before Big Ten teams play one. That’s one reason why I’m fading current Heisman favorite and Ohio State quarterback, Justin Fields. Buckeye Bits, an Ohio State fan site, warns that Fields’ backups better be ready this season since the conference’s protocols are especially strict.
Looking closer at how schedules differ across the country and conferences, the Pac-12’s seven-game schedule is set to begin on Nov. 6, which is one game fewer than the Big Ten’s eight-game schedule. Meanwhile, most Big 12 teams will play 10 games, and the same for SEC. ACC schools will pretty much play a complete schedule. Their 11 games will allow players to build the kind of resume that has become the norm for Heisman winners. Of course, that’s if all goes according to plan.
Heisman voters will likely try to avoid penalizing players who have no control over the number of games they play, but we all have our biases. If there’s a tiebreaker, having more touchdowns, yards, and a larger sample size of games on a state sheet certainly won’t hurt.
2020 Heisman Trophy Odds and Picks
Sam Ehlinger +1000 (Texas)
Rushing for 663 yards and 7 touchdowns his junior season, Ehlinger checks first box as a dual-threat quarterback. He checks a second box playing on a national title contender. The Longhorns are +3000 to win the National Championship. At +145 to win their conference, Texas and Ehlinger have a great chance of becoming first Big 12 team outside of the Oklahoma Sooners to represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff. But that’s precisely why I don’t want to bet on Ehlinger to win the Heisman Trophy. I prefer buying a 30-to-1 ticket on the Longhorns winning the National Championship instead; we can start hedging when they make it to the Big 12 Championship, and then in the semifinals if they make it there.
De’Eriq King +1600 (Miami)
King’s Heisman Trophy odds have shortened from +2000 to +1600 over the last couple of days, but there’s still value in betting on this dual-threat quarterback despite the adjustment from oddsmakers. At one point in the offseason, DraftKings sportsbook listed the UofH transfer +1000 to win the Heisman, and he’s currently as short as +600 at both FanDuel Sportsbook and FOX Bet. So far, King has combined for 5 touchdowns and no interceptions. There’s plenty more where that came from playing behind center in offensive coordinator Rhett Lashley’s Air Raid system. You’ll want to bet on King before the Hurricanes play Florida State this Saturday night.
Sam Howell +4000 (UNC)
Howell threw a Tar Heel-record 38 touchdowns on his way to finishing second in the ACC in passing yards and passing efficiency. The most impressive part of it all? He was only a freshman, and a true one at that. Though Howell threw the ball a lot — 422 times to be exact — the freshman rarely made freshman-like mistakes. Opposing defenses picked him off only seven times as he led the Tar Heels to their first bowl win since 2013. Now, with an extra year of maturity and more time under head coach Mack Brown and OC Phil Longo, Howell is ready for the big stage. With Clemson off the UNC’s regular-season schedule, and alongside his three favorite receivers from 2019, he might just get there. I’m locking in Howell at +4000 odds, my favorite Heisman Trophy bet. You can find the same odds at FOX Bet, PointsBet, and FanDuel.
Ian Book +5000 (Notre Dame)
This one looked a little bit better before a slow start, but Book does have a few things going for him. He’s an experienced player on marquee national powerhouse in Notre Dame. He’s a do-everything type of quarterback who was second on his team with 546 rushing yards and 4 touchdwons on the ground in 2019. His passing has been lackluster through two games, but he currently leads his team with three rushing touchdowns. Additionally, the move to ACC could give his Heisman candidacy a boost. He will go head-to-head with Trevor Lawrence and Clemson IN South Bend while drawing very weak road games against Wake Forest, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Boston College. His most challenging road trip comes the day after Thanksgiving at North Carolina. Even though he’s a longshot with Fields and Lawrence both playing, I don’t think he’s drawing dead especially given the uncertainty that is baked into this unusual season specifically. Book is as short as 30-1 at other shops, so 50-1 is a solid price at DraftKings.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images