Final Four Predictions: Alabama vs. UConn Odds and Betting Pick
Tonight’s Final Four action will conclude with a matchup between Alabama and UConn at 8:49 p.m. ET on TBS. The winner of tonight’s contest will advance to Monday’s National Championship Game against either NC State or Purdue.
Alabama vs. Connecticut Betting Preview
| Alabama Odds | +11.5 |
| UConn Odds | -11.5 |
| Over/Under | 161.5 |
| Date | Sat, Apr. 6 |
| Time | 8:49 p.m. |
| TV | TBS |
Ahead of tip-off this evening, UConn is a heavy 11.5-point favorite over Alabama. The total for this contest is set at over/under 161.5 points.
Below, we break down the matchup for both teams and offer a free pick for the betting community!
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Alabama Crimson Tide +11.5
Following an impressive regular season, Alabama made a statement in their opening round game, scoring 109 points against Charleston. Still, the fact that they allowed 96 points to a 13-seed was a concern. Alabama survived a poor shooting night against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32, and then took down North Carolina and Clemson in the subsequent two rounds. However, it’s worth noting that they allowed 87 points and 82 points respectively in those last two wins. This is not an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination. Alabama has made it to the Final Four on the back of their offense alone.
Tide offense ready to roll on Saturday night
This season, Alabama ranked 2nd in offensive rating out of 362 schools, trailing only UConn in that metric. Alabama also ranked 6th in TS% and 11th in eFG%. If there is any concern related to this unit heading into Saturday, it’s that they don’t move the ball exceptionally well, and turnovers can be an issue at times.
Alabama narrowly defeated North Carolina and Clemson but shot 42.3% and 44.4% from 3-point territory respectively in those two games. It’s unlikely that they will be able to sustain such a high rate of success from the perimeter indefinitely. In the second round against Grand Canyon, Alabama went 8-for-31 (25.8%) from 3-point territory, and ended up in a very competitive game script against an inferior opponent. Much of whether or not they will be able to compete at a high level tonight will come down to their ability to stay hot from the perimeter.
UConn Huskies -11.5
UConn has yet to sweat in this year’s NCAA Tournament. They beat Stetson by 39 points in their opening round matchup, then beat Northwestern by 17 points two days later. In the Sweet 16, San Diego State seemingly never stood a chance, losing by 30 points. Even the highly-regarded Fighting Illini were run off of the floor by UConn – losing 77-52 after UConn went on a remarkable 30-0 run. It’s no surprise that UConn is now favored by double-digits in the final four, considering that none of their recent games have even been competitive.
Any reason to be concerned for UConn?
If there is any reason for UConn fans to be concerned, it’s due to the fact that Alabama’s high-tempo, live-and-die 3-point approach could lead to a wide range of potential outcomes in a single game. According to The Action Network, Alabama ranked 13th in adjusted tempo this year compared to UConn, which ranked 315th in the nation. If UConn allows Alabama to turn this game into a track meet, they could leave themselves open to a high-variance game script, which is something that every heavy favorite wants to avoid at all costs.
Alabama vs. UConn Prediction & Betting Pick
It might seem insane to consider an under between the two most efficient offenses in the nation, but Alabama’s offense is not exactly sustainable across all game scripts. As we saw against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32, Alabama lives and dies in many respects at the 3-point line. If UConn can do a good job contesting shots on the perimeter this evening, Alabama could struggle. There is also the possibility that Alabama simply has a bad night shooting the basketball, which is always a risk.
The other component of this is that UConn is likely to try to slow the pace of this game down as much as possible. Alabama’s biggest advantage in this game is creating a chaotic, high-tempo environment in which they could potentially get hot from beyond the arc. UConn has a tremendously efficient offense, but they aren’t going to be eager to get into a track meet in this spot. This could be a slightly lower-scoring game than the market is expecting.
- PICK: Under 161.5 (-112), FanDuel
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