PGA Golf Betting Picks for 2021 American Express
After a short hiatus, free golf betting picks are back, this week for the 2021 American Express.
Previously known as the CareerBuilder Challenge and a few other names throughout the years, The American Express marks the first leg of the West Coast swing of the 2021 PGA Tour schedule.
For the past two weeks, the Tour has been away from the mainland, soaking up the sun in Hawaii. Harris English and Kevin Na departed the islands as the Tour’s most recent winners. English will take the week off but Na is in the field and hopes to keep his irons and putter hot at PGA West in La Quinta, California.
Let’s take a closer look at the course(s) hosting The American Express, the field, golf odds, and my favorite PGA golf betting picks at online sportsbooks this week.
The American Express Course Preview
- Course: PGA West – Stadium Course (Three Rounds)
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,113 Yards
- Designer: Pete Dye
- Course: PGA West – Nicklaus Tournament Course (One Round)
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,152 Yards
- Designer: Jack Nicklaus
156 golfers will split up on Thursday and Friday as each competitor plays a round at the Stadium Course and Nicklaus Course during the first two rounds of the American Express. After Round 2, the 65 golfers who make the cut will play solely at the Stadium Course.
With tournament organizers scratching the usual pro-am, and so too the round at La Quinta Country Club, we can expect more difficult playing conditions this year for a tournament that has produced back-to-back winning scores of 26-under. Here are the last 10 winners at PGA West
- 2020: Andrew Landry (-26)
- 2019: Adam Long (-26)
- 2018: Jon Rahm (-22)
- 2017: Hudson Swafford (-20)
- 2016: Jason Dufner (-25)
- 2015 Bill Haas (-22)
- 2014: Patrick Reed (-28)
- 2013: Brian Gay (-25)
- 2012: Mark Wilson (-24)
- 2011: Jhonattan Vegas (-27)
As you can infer from the list of past winners, this PGA Tour event doesn’t necessarily cater to a particular golf style. Both courses have four Par 5s but neither track is too demanding in terms of length. Birdie opportunities are plentifuly even for shorters hitters — just ask the defending champ, Andrew Landry.
It’s worth noting that PGA West has been kind to longshots. Whether the changes this year will make it tougher for the bottom of the betting board, I’m not sure. As someone who likes finding value on longer golf odds, I will continue to root for longshots to prevail at the 2021 American Express.
2021 American Express Golf Betting Picks
Abraham Ancer +3000
Risking 1 Unit to Win 30
Before we get to the enticing longshots, let’s take a healthy dose of chalk. Abraham Ancer is sure to be a popular pick for DFS and golf betting this week, and rightfully so. The 29-year-old was runner-up here just a year ago while dominating the field from tee-to-green (only Grayson Murray gained more strokes tee-to-green). I sat out last week, but word on the PGA DFS streets is that Ancer ruined a lot of lineups. For DFS purposes, I’m not sure we’ll get as low of ownership as would in previous years after a missed cut, mainly because PGA DFS is becoming so much sharper. Ancer missed the cut at the Sony Open not because of lackluster ball-striking but because of his poor play on and around the greens. Ancer has gained strokes putting two of the four times he’s played at this event, never losing more than one stroke on the greens. Last year he gained an encouraging 4.8 strokes with his putter on his way to a second-place finish. I won’t be overweight on Ancer in my DFS lineups if he’s expected to be chalky again, but I don’t mind have some exposure to him this week when it comes to my golf betting picks. He’s currently +3000 at PointsBet and as short as +2200 elsewhere.
[Bet Abraham Ancer +3000 at PointsBet]
Aaron Wise +7500
Risking 1 Unit to Win 75
The last time we saw Aaron Wise was in December when he came in second-place at the Mayakoba Golf Classic. It was a solid finish to an otherwise frustrating season. The 24-year-old clearly has a ton of talent and potential, as he showed early on in his career; he just struggles to put it all together at times, as he showed during a streak of five missed cuts last summer. Wise seemed to be piecing things together during the fall swing, and his most recent performance is nothing but encouraging. Likely to be another popular pick across the industry, Wise’s odds are falling quickly. Head to FanDuel to grab +7500 on the long hitter.
[Bet Aaron Wise +7500 at FanDuel Sportsbook]
Keegan Bradley +10000
Risking 0.20 Units to Win 20
Bradley consistently gains strokes tee-to-green while giving it all back (and then some) once he reaches the green. Last week, Bradley missed the cut at the Sony Open after losing seven strokes with his putter. The week before, he lost 4.6 strokes with the short stick. There might come a point when I eventually give up on Bradley, but this week, this field, and these odds are not it. It’s been nearly five years since Bradley has played this event, but when he has made the trip to La Quinta he’s performed well and hasn’t lost too many strokes on these greens.
[Bet Keegan Bradley +10000 at PointsBet]
Andrew Landry +15000
Risking 0.20 Units to Win 30
Landry won last year as a nearly 200-to-1 underdog. The odds are shorter this time around but not by much. So what’s the case for Landry not being merely a one-hit wonder at PGA West, you ask? Look at the guy’s course history. Preceding his victory, Landry finished 28th in 2019 and 2nd in 2018. The second-place finish came while gaining less than a stroke with his putter. The Texan clearly has an affinity for this California course. Unfortunately his strokes gained ball-striking haven’t been great recently, but if history is any indication, he should be able to find his groove in La Quinta.
[Bet Andrew Landry +15000 at UniBet]
Hudson Swafford +20000
Risking .20 Units to win 40
Another longshot and defending champion, Swafford’s odds immediately stuck out at PointsBet where he’s listed +20000 (200-1) at the online sportsbook compared to as short as +12500 at William Hill. Swafford earned a Top-25 finish at the Sony Open thanks to an unusually solid putting performance. Like Landry, there’s plenty to be desired with his current form, but 200-1 on the former winner is tough to pass up.
[Bet Hudson Swafford +20000 at PointsBet]
Check out our PGA Golf Betting Guide for more golf betting tips
Image Credit: Imagn