2023 American Express Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-01-17 14:04:20

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 American Express. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

The Hawaiian vacation is over as the PGA Tour makes its way back to the continental United States. The American Express kicks off the California portion of the tour schedule at three different locations. The unique pro-am will be played over three days before a cut leaves the remaining golfers to play the Stadium Course one more time at PGA West. Scoring is abundant at this event. Who can rise to the top of a relatively strong field? Let’s take a look at odds, the course, and a statistical betting preview of the 2023 American Express.

American Express Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 17th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the American Express:

• 2022 – Hudson Swafford (-23)
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim (-23)
• 2020 – Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019 – Adam Long (-26)
• 2018 – Jon Rahm (-22)

The field this week is notably stronger than last year’s edition of the American Express. Jon Rahm headlines the field coming off of a big victory as he chased down Collin Morikawa at the Tournament of Champions. Rahm has won three of his last five events and is heavily favored despite the nature of this week’s putting contest. Scottie Scheffler is in the field as well as Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Cameron Young, and Will Zalatoris. Despite the format, the field is far stronger than what we are accustomed to in California.

Last year’s victor, Hudson Swafford, will not defense his second title at the Amex because he left for the LIV Golf Tour. Si Woo Kim, a previous winner, will play after a big win last weekend at the Sony Open. The Pro-Am aspect event will slow play down as amateurs will be paired with every golfer across the first three days. Unfortunately, the celebrities attracted to this event pale in comparison to that of Pebble Beach. So, just expect slow golf at an easily accessible course.

2023 American Express Betting Preview

• Course: PGA West & La Quinta Country Club
• Date: January 19 – 22
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,159 yards
• Greens: Bermuda

All three courses will present as a litany of birdie opportunities for the professionals in the field. Since this is a Pro-Am, pin positions will be very accessible, greens will be far slower, and there will be hardly any rough to speak off. All three courses feature plenty of water and challenging bunkers with the most challenging the Stadium Course that will be played twice by golfer who make the cut.

156 players will play this week with the top 65 and ties making the three-day cut to play on Sunday at the Stadium course. Due to the Pete Dye layout and common features amongst the three courses, we are looking for players who are creating and cashing in on as many opportunities as possible.

Water is prevalent at the Stadium Course with some of the more challenging greenside bunkers on tour. Since players will play this course twice, assuming they are in contention, we want to consider fairways as well. While bombers can win here, see Rahm, Swafford, etc… keeping the ball in play is all that is needed to have opportunities at these less challenging greens.

I will be keeping my eye on SG: Approach, BOB%, Fairways Gained, SG: Putting, and Par 4: 350-400 statistics. Let’s highlight a few players who are worth a look given their recent form or course fit.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Tony Finau +1400

We can argue that Tony Finau has been in the best form on the PGA Tour for quite some time. Tony ranks first in the field in BOB gained and 4th in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds.

Finau came back from a holiday hiatus with a 7th place finish at the Sentry TOC. With that field being stacked and a full four rounds to be had, Finau continues to show his recent dominance as he looks ahead to contending for major championships this season. His breakout season seems to be continuing with new heights available over the next few months.

Cameron Young +2200

I’ve missed you Cameron. The object of my affection over the 2022 season, Young has vaulted himself into the superstar category as sports betting sites will no longer give you a good price on the budding star. After featuring as a 350-1 longshot at last year’s tournament at Riviera, you won’t find much better than the 22-1 Young is priced at BetMGM.

Cam ranks 1st in the field on Par 4’s from 350-400 yards. He ranks fifth in BOB%. His prowess off the tee won’t give him a distinct advantage as he will likely be clubbing down to avoid hazards.

Cameron Davis +5000

From one Cam to the next, we will keep an eye on Cam Davis this week. Cam did not put together a great performance last week at the Sony Open but did make the cut and finish in 32nd place. Not horrible for his first start in quite some time for the young Aussie.

Davis checks several boxes for us this week including Opportunities Gained, BOB Gained, and Par 4: 350-400 scoring. While he has struggled to hit fairways, his ample length should allow for shorter club selections to help keep the ball in play. Davis was a player to watch last week and should be on our radar for this event as well with three made cuts here and a 3rd place finish last season.

David Lipsky +8000

Lipsky showed well last week at the Sony Open with a 4th place finish. In his lone start at the Amex last season, Lipsky finished in 14th place. He comes in to this event in fine form.

While Lipsky won’t dazzle us with his statistical numbers he resides in the top 20 in the field in all of SG: Approach, Fairways Gained, and Opportunities Gained. As this price, we might consider him for a speculative add or a top finisher bet. You can find his best current price at PointsBet where Lipsky is going off at 125-1.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn