2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:37:10

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Last week, Chris Kirk finally got off the schneid with a victory at the Honda Classic at PGA National. Kirk averted a disastrous approach into the 18th green when he outlasted Erik Cole in a one-hole playoff. This week, the PGA Tour elevates matters again with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill drawing a star-studded field. Will the top of the board produce another winner? Will we finally get a winner from down the betting board? Let’s start with betting odds, the field, and some course information.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – February 27th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 45/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

• 2022 – Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021 – Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
• 2020 – Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019 – Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018 – Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-17)

After a short hiatus from mega-competitive golf, the field is loaded again for the Arnold Palmer Invitational as the PGA Tour decided to elevate this event. 120 golfers will tee it up with the top 65 and ties making the cut. We see now why several golfers skipped the Honda Classic as both the Arnold Palmer and The Players Championship come with significantly larger prize pools. The event will pay out $20 million.

The field starts with Jon Rahm and his ridiculous run of success early in the year. At 6.5/1, we keep fading an outright bet but when do we start feeling silly? The guy is on fire and Bay Hill is one of the stiffest tests on tour. Any time golfers are forced to play in the toughest conditions, Rahm vaults to the top of the list. Rory has a victory at Bay Hill in easier conditions as his -18 is quite the outlier on our past winners list. We should expect, if the wind presents itself, a score barely cracking double digits or below. When Tyrrell Hatton won, only Matthew Fitzpatrick had a round of golf below 70 on the weekend.

Scottie Scheffler outlasted Gary Woodland and Billy Horschel last year to capture his second win. We don’t need to go over every golfer in the field as the top of the board is loaded. We are unlikely to see a longshot come through this week. Instead, one of the superstars in good form will likely dawn the red sweater vest at week’s end.

2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Bay Hill
• Date: March 2-5
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,149
• Greens: Bermuda

Bay Hill will be a delight for struggling golfers looking to watch the world’s best flummoxed over a golf ball. The fourth toughest test last season, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will test every facet of a golfer’s game. Sneaky long because of target shots and forced layups with long rough, players will need to be accurate off of the tee while dialing in approach shots.

If the weather becomes a brute, don’t expect much scoring. As mentioned previously, when Tyrrell Hatton won, he become one of the only players in tour history to win an event shooting over par on both weekend rounds. Only Matt Fitzpatrick shot a score below 70 (stash that away) that weekend when Hatton won at -4. The winds will be a bear in a course protected with water. Holes 6 and 8 will generate a bounty of bogeys as players look to score elsewhere.

With four Par 5’s, also the easiest holes on the course, players MUST cash in at these holes to have a hope on the weekend. Shooting par all round and making birdie at these holes would be enough for a victory. Avoiding disasters will be the key this weekend.

Speaking of avoiding disasters, four of the most difficult holes on the course with respect to birdie rate are the four Par 3’s, all checking in at 200 yards or above. For that reason, we need to consider proximity over 200 yards in our model. Long irons are a key to victory at this tournament.

The greens are lightning fast Bermuda. Compare these greens with those of Augusta National and PGA National. Players with success at these venues might translate well this week.

We will be looking at SG: Approach, Fairways Gained, Proximity > 200, Par 5 scoring, and putting on Bermuda greens. Let’s take a look at few golfers to consider this week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Collin Morikawa +1800

Despite a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open, Collin Morikawa has been on a roll to start the 2023 PGA Tour season. A second, third, and sixth place in his other three previous starts, Morikawa has been a factor at all three events down the stretch. Known as one of the more precise iron players on tour, Morikawa seems to be on the precipice of another victory soon.

The price is not ideal but we aren’t going to get a bargain on anyone this week. Morikawa sits in the top five in this field in approach, fairways, and proximity over 200 yards. What he lacks is the ability to save pars when his putter is off the mark. However, we witness what type of player we are dealing with when the putter is on. At Sentry, Morikawa gained 5.2 strokes putting and nearly crushed the field if not for a bad day four. If he is rolling the ball, we need to consider him for our betting card.

Given the strength of the field, I believe he is unlikely going to get very popular as a one-and-done selection. For those like myself who are behind, finding a low-owned play that wins this event would help catch up.

Sungjae Im +3500

After two great performances at the Farmer’s and Phoenix, Im played a couple of ho-hum events. The point is, the man just keeps playing golf.

In pretty good form, I think we consider Im as a value option this week and a DFS consideration. He leads the field in proximity over 200 yards and sits in the top 15 in both SG: Par 5 and Bogey Avoidance. In this field, those numbers are nothing to gloss over.

I am not sure he is worthy of a one-and-done play unless you want to use him because he has been so heavily used thus far. However, at 35/1, we could do worse to fill out our card. He is under consideration.

Matt Fitzpatrick +4000

So, the form is not ideal. However, Fitzpatrick has an incredible record at this event. In his last four starts, Fitzpatrick has converted four top ten’s with a second-place finish in 2019.

Matt Fitzpatrick does not have the greatest form as of late, most recently missing the cut at the Genesis. However, his proficiency on Par 5’s and his ability to scramble and avoid bogeys piques my interest. At 40/1, we are getting a golfer proven to perform on the toughest tests. He will also go way under the radar for one-and-done and might be considered if you are way behind (raises hand).

Justin Rose +7500

Finally, we land on Justin Rose as a possible longer option down the card if you are building a full card for this event. Rose has a win at Pebble Beach this season before promptly missing the cut at the Genesis. He has plenty of experience on these grounds with a mixed bag of missed cuts, four top 10’s, and six top 20’s.

Rose is proficient with his long irons. At this price, we could do worse with his ability on Par 3’s at this length and his ability to scramble. Perhaps a top finisher bet, I wouldn’t consider Rose for one-and-done this week with too much opportunity cost above him on our odds board.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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