2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-03-06 18:34:56

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After a couple of lesser prestigious events, the PGA TOUR ramps up the drama in Florida with back-to-back big events. This week, Bay Hill plays host to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A designated, signature event, 69 golfers will vie for a massive winner’s check. Bay Hill is not historically friendly to players and could finally present a tough test to the TOUR’s best. Let’s take a look at the field, betting odds, and the course for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The Arnold Palmer Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – March 4th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the API:

• 2023 – Kurt Kitayama(-9)
• 2022 – Scottie Scheffler (-5)
• 2021 – Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
• 2020 – Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
• 2019 – Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018 – Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-17)

The field will feature 69 players, with the top 50 and ties (and anyone within 10 shots of the lead) playing on Saturday and Sunday. Tony Finau is the only member of the top 50 players to qualify for the field that will sit out the API — choosing to defend his Mexico Open title a couple of weeks ago. Many of the recent winners of the tournament are playing on a different TOUR in the present, but Kurt Kitayama and Scottie Scheffler will be back to defend their recent titles at Bay Hill.

Scottie Scheffler continues to dominate the TOUR in every facet except quite possibly the most important. He needs to find something with his putter to start paying off his elite ball-striking ability. Rory McIlroy played the Cognizant Classic ahead of Bay Hill, presumably to get prepared for the event. Rory won the event back in 2018 with a remarkable comeback run on Sunday.

The field strength is obviously a great margin better than the norm at this event. Historically, the field would be littered with many European players making their first start on TOUR. With so many players playing in a different location or coming early for signature events, the field will be stacked with the TOUR’s best.

Austin Eckroat and Min Woo Lee were late additions to the field based on their finishes at the Cognizant Classic.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Bay Hill
• Date: March 7 – 10
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,149
• Greens: Bermuda

Are you tired of watching golfers take apart golf courses? One of the toughest tests annually on TOUR, the Arnold Palmer Invitational will test every facet of a golfer’s game. Sneaky long because of target shots and forced layups with long rough, players will need to be accurate off of the tee while dialing in approach shots.

If the weather is tough and winds are up, expect players to struggle mightily on this course. As mentioned ad nauseam over the years, when Tyrrell Hatton won this event, he became one of the only players in TOUR history to win an event shooting over par on both weekend rounds. Hatton won at -4 that year as almost nobody was able to score below par on Saturday or Sunday. Since the course features so much water, the heavy winds cause carnage. Holes 6 and 8 will generate a high volume of bogeys if winds are up.

Players must cash in at the par 5s in order to complete for a victory at this event. The par 5s are the easiest four holes on the course and represent the best scoring opportunities. Playing at even par with birdies on these holes seems to be a recipe for victory. Avoiding disasters will be the key this weekend.

All four par 3s are at least 200 yards long. With respect to scoring, these represent four of the toughest holes on the course. Due to the length of these holes, the plurality of approach shots at this course come from greater than 200 yards. Long irons are a key to victory at this tournament.

The greens are lightning fast Bermuda. Compare these greens with those of Augusta National and PGA National. Players with success at these venues might translate well this week. Players will struggle to roll in putts from 10-15 feet. While putting is important, proximity to the hole and making pars ensure players won’t blow up. Bogey avoidance is a crucial stat this week. Sam Burns leads the field in bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds.

We will be looking at SG: Approach, fairways gained, proximity > 200, par-5 scoring, bogey avoidance, and putting on Bermuda greens. Let’s take a look at a few golfers to consider this week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Sam Burns +2200

Very quietly, Sam Burns is off to a great start in 2024. Burns has five starts beginning with the Sentry in January and boasts four T10 finishes. While he has not been in the thick of it over the week thus far, Burns is consistently playing very well in very good fields.

Burns leads the field in bogey avoidance and finds himself in the top 25 in nearly all of our other key statistical categories. He grinds out pars with his putter more than most and has the ball-striking skills to take advantage of the scoring holes. He makes plenty of sense as an outright selection as well as a one-and-done option. With the star power this week, Burns should not garner that much ownership in this format.

Matt Fitzpatrick +2800

Speaking of grinders, Matt Fitzpatrick finally put together a solid week at the Cognizant Classic. Unlike Burns, Fitzpatrick has struggled to start the season — missing two cuts with his best finish of 15th at the Waste Management.

While he finished 21st in a full field last weekend, Fitzpatrick gained across the board in all statistical categories. He had only gained on approach one other time this season before playing PGA National. He played very well on and around the greens last weekend. If his scrambling is on the mend, Fitzpatrick fits the mold of the type of golfer who can conquer Bay Hill in the worst conditions.

When Tyrrell Hatton won this event, Fitzpatrick was the only player in the field to card an under-par round on Sunday. He has five consecutive top-20 finishes at this event, with a 2nd place mixed in. He feels like a bargain at this price and should be in play for your one-and-done pools.

Will Zalatoris +2500

I am including Will here because he is on my radar every week. His 2nd-place finish at the Genesis has shortened his odds ahead of this week.

In three starts, Zalatoris has three made cuts at this event. While his injury is likely not behind him yet, the young star seems to be getting back in form at the perfect time of year. Ahead of the THE PLAYERS Championship and the majors, Zalatoris could be in great shape to make a deep run at a career-solidifying victory.

With that said, that victory could happen this weekend. He is very tough to ignore when a course demands precision ball striking. I will be monitoring his number throughout the week to see if the odds mature a bit and we can find him at 30-1.

Erik Van Rooyen +6000

Van Rooyen might have lost an opportunity at another victory on TOUR because of horrible weather on Sunday at the Cognizant Classic. EVR was tearing the course apart before the suspension pulled him off the course. It’s hard to say if the delay kept Van Rooyen from continuing his surge or helped Austin Eckroat get on track.

In any event, Van Rooyen has back-to-back T10 finishes and has played very well in 2024. Building off of his first career victory in November, EVR showed he can play in Florida last weekend. At 60-1, this could be the furthest down the board I would consider going in such an elite field. He is not a consideration for one-and-done formats but seems appropriate for a bottom of the betting card outright selection.

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