2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-01-31 03:25:47

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. You can use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

To counter the talent swing to the LIV Tour, the PGA presented a plan to boost the prize pool on selected signature events throughout the golf season. The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will get a tremendous boost in talent in 2024, as it is the second event of this season with this designation. With a $20 million prize pool and $3.6 million awarded to the champion, the TOUR’s best will be on the California coast this weekend. We will preview the field, betting odds, and the course prior to targeting some golfers to watch this week.

AT&T Pebble Beach Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 30th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

• 2023 – Justin Rose (-18)
• 2022 – Tom Hoge (-19)
• 2021 – Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020 – Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019 – Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018 – Ted Potter (-17)
• 2017 – Jordan Spieth (-19)

The field for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will feature 80 golfers with no cut for the weekend. Played on two courses, the talented field will play three rounds at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill Golf Club. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are co-favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Last year’s champion, Justin Rose, is a longshot at 80-1.

This won’t be the first or last time that we mention the lack of past champions and talent because of the exodus to the LIV Tour. Jon Rahm would normally be a fixture at the top of the odds board. Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson are names that frequently played Pebble Beach with success. Tyrrell Hatton was the next golfer to leave the PGA TOUR to play on the LIV Tour and will be notably absent from the pro-am.

Also absent from this week’s field is Daniel Berger, a previous champion making his way back from injury. Speaking of injury, Will Zalatoris was surprisingly not given an invitation to the tournament despite playing well in recent weeks. Zalatoris finally put together a great round on Sunday at Torrey Pines and will be a golfer we target soon enough.

2024 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview

• Course: Pebble Beach (three rounds)
• Date: February 1 – 4
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,972 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

Pebble Beach has not seen a field of this caliber since hosting the U.S. Open in 2019. Gary Woodland bested Brooks Koepka to win his first and only major championship that year.

The course will not play like a major championship course because it will be set up to be a pro-am for the first two days. The fairways are generous, and the rough will not be that thick. Pebble Beach’s best defense is wind off of the coast. If the weather is docile, expect plenty of birdies.

Pebble Beach features some of the smallest greens on TOUR at about 3,500 square feet on average. If the weather is cooperative, the small greens will be the best defense against low scores. The tiny greens are extremely challenging to putt on — something that should mitigate the importance of being a great putter.

SG: Approach, to no surprise, will be extremely important when picking golfers to target. The only issue with modeling over certain periods is that many of the golfers on top of the leaderboard have not played much this season. Course history is tricky because many of the elite golfers have not played this tournament over the years.

In 2023, the shots from 175-200 yards seemed to be the most important area amongst the leaderboard. Every player in the top 10, except Brendan Todd, gained on the field in this range.

Play around the greens and putting history on poa must be considered this week. Pebble Beach will give players fits even from in close.

Finally, driving distance is not significant at Pebble Beach and won’t be significant at Spyglass Hill GC either. Players average less than 270 yards in driving distance at Pebble Beach. The course calls for strategically moving around the course and setting up the approach shot. The event will become a wedge-and-putting contest.

• Course: Spyglass Hill GC (one round)
• Date: February 1 – 4
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,041 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

Of the two courses, Spyglass will play the toughest. Five holes are completely exposed to the coast. When winds are up, the course is very challenging despite otherwise being guarded by trees throughout the course. The greens are considerably larger (5,000 square foot average) than that of Pebble Beach. Around-the-green play might not be as pivotal on this course.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Rory McIlroy +800

Rory skipped the Sentry in Hawaii and will make his 2024 debut at Pebble Beach. He has not played much at Pebble Beach throughout his career, with his last two starts coming in 2018 and 2019. In 2018, Rory missed the cut. In 2019, McIlroy played the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach and finished 9th, only losing strokes on the green.

Rory is the top golfer to watch for all bettors, especially considering the massive weight this event will have on one-and-done contests. Should we burn Rory this early in the season at a course he hasn’t played on much? Can we count on Rory as a bet?

Collin Morikawa +1800

Morikawa inexplicably missed the cut at the Farmer’s after starting strongly in his first round. He did not strike the ball well and struggled with the putter.

That said, this tournament might be a fit for Morikawa’s skill set. One of the better ball strikers in the field, Morikawa can rely on precise play off of the tee and on approach to small greens. Putting will always be a concern, but the fast poa greens should neutralize the entire field. With such a massive prize pool, a short course set up for a pro-am for the first couple of days could be just what Morikawa needs to get back to the top of a leaderboard.

J.T. Poston +4000

While he doesn’t necessarily bring the same star power as some of his competitors, Poston is a perfect fit for this course.

We need a precise golfer and an excellent wedge player who can get white-hot with the putter. Poston is 13th in the field on approach, 1st in putting, and 2nd on Par 4: 350-400 yards. This field is a step up in class, but Poston has been extremely consistent over the last year on TOUR. We get a decent price at 40-1 to take a shot.

Denny McCarthy +7000

When distance does not matter very much, I love to take a shot on McCarthy. His first win on TOUR still eludes McCarthy, but we saw last season at the Memorial just how important an incredible putter could be over 4 rounds. In a field filled with the best golfers on TOUR, McCarthy was one bad swing and one ridiculous Viktor Hovland birdie away from hoisting his first trophy at an elevated event.

McCarthy finished 4th at this event last season, gaining 6.1 strokes on the greens. We know he can putt it at Pebble Beach Golf Links. Can he get hot enough with his irons and wedges to make a great putting performance count? At 70-1, he might be worth a shot.

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