Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Ravens vs. Patriots Odds
| Ravens Odds | -2.5 |
| Patriots Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 25 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens will travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots in a matchup between two AFC teams looking to get over the .500 mark heading into October. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these opponents, pricing Baltimore as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens
In Week 3, Lamar Jackson was sensational, scoring four total touchdowns, with 318 passing yards and 119 rushing yards. Unfortunately, he did not have much help. The rest of the rushing attack combined for only 36 yards on the ground on 16 carries, with only one of those runs going for longer than six yards. On Sunday, the offensive line will once again be without starting left tackle Ronnie Staley, who is still working his way back from an ankle injury. J.K. Dobbins will reportedly make his 2022 debut, but it remains to be seen how heavy his workload will be, considering that he has not played in a regular season game since January 2020. New England Patriots’ Head Coach Belichick is well-known for taking away his opponent’s best player. Overall, this group could struggle in this contest if they are unable to generate production outside of Jackson.
Defensively, the Ravens have been a colossal disappointment during the early portion of the campaign – ranking 27th in EPA per play, according to rbsdm. Baltimore ranks 22nd in opponent completion percentage and 23rd in passing yards allowed per attempt, while also ranking 22nd in yards-per-carry allowed on the ground. These numbers include a favorable Week 1 matchup against the New York Jets, which account for approximately 50 percent of their defensive metrics at this point in the season. The Ravens have the potential to be elite in the secondary and getting after the passer, but they have yet to produce anywhere near expectations so far in 2022.
New England Patriots
Early in the season, the Patriots’ offense has predictably struggled, dealing with the loss of last year’s offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. In McDaniels place, Matt Patricia has handled the majority of the responsibilities typically associated with that role. Considering that Patricia has been primarily a defensive coach across the last decade, one could argue that New England has actually done well to rank 17th in EPA/play through two weeks. Still, Mac Jones has looked uncomfortable to begin the year – throwing for only 465 passing yards, with a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio entering play on Sunday. The run game performed better in Week 2, totaling 124 yards on the ground, but that was against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. If there is anything positive to note, it is that the offensive line has given Jones plenty of time to throw and make decisions in the pocket. If the offensive line can perform well again this afternoon, New England’s offense could surprise with a strong showing against a Baltimore secondary unit that has yet to play to its potential this fall.
Since Belichick took over as head coach in Foxborough, New England’s defense has seemingly never had a bad season. Even after losing an abundance of talent during this past offseason, the Patriots have managed to hold their opponents to a combined 34 points across the first eight quarters of the campaign. Holding the Miami Dolphins to only 20 points appears even more impressive after Miami put 42 points on the board against Baltimore in Week 2. New England has a number of players listed as questionable ahead of this contest, but it would be surprising if any of them ended up on the sidelines at kickoff. Expect another strong performance from Belichick’s defense today.
*Ravens vs. Patriots Picks & Predictions
Head Coach Bill Belichick excels at taking away the opposing team’s top option on offense. Last week, Lamar Jackson accounted for nearly everything that Baltimore did well on the offensive side of the ball, totaling four touchdowns, in addition to gaining 119 yards with his legs. The return of J.K. Dobbins has many bettors excited, but expectations should be tempered for a player that has not played in a regular season game in roughly two years. If the Patriots are able to limit Jackson today, the Ravens could struggle to put points on the board. Even if New England struggles again offensively, they should have a chance to cover a field goal in this one.
PICK: Patriots +3 (-122) via DraftKings
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