Ravens vs. Saints Odds, Picks, and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-11-07 21:45:22

Ravens vs. Saints Odds

This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Entering play, Baltimore is 5-3, sitting in first place in the AFC North. New Orleans is 3-5, needing a victory to pull back into a first play tie with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested primetime affair between these two teams tonight, pricing the Ravens as slim 2-point road favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Baltimore Ravens

Entering Week 9, the Ravens have three losses, but all three of those defeats have come by four points or less. In each of those losses, the Ravens held a touchdown lead or greater in the fourth quarter, losing in the closing minutes of the contest. Through eight games, the Ravens rank 7th in offensive EPA/play, 5th in points per game, and 6th in time of possession – all strong indicators that Lamar Jackson and company are capable of moving the ball effectively on a weekly basis. Jackson ranks 5th among qualified signal callers in QBR in eight games, and should be plenty rested in this spot after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 – giving him three extra days of rest leading into this matchup. Baltimore has a difficult task this evening against a formidable New Orleans defense, but they should still be able to execute their gameplan at a high level.

The larger concern for the Ravens the entire season has been their defense. Only the Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and Detroit Lions rank worse in defensive EPA/play at this point in the season, and none of those teams currently occupy a postseason position. Fortunately for Baltimore, Marcus Peters logged a full practice in this week’s final injury report – making him likely to suit up on Monday. Despite the lack of early season success for this unit, there is still plenty of talent for this group on this side of the ball. It is possible that better days are ahead.

New Orleans Saints

Since taking over as the starting quarterback for the Saints in Week 4, Andy Dalton has posted a 9-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 65.2 completion percentage. In that span, New Orleans’ offense ranks 7th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play – ranking 8th in Dropback EPA/play and 5th in Rush EPA/play. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in each of those five contests, including matchups against the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals, two teams that rank in the top-half of the league in a number of key defensive metrics. Dalton and company have another opportunity to put points on the board in Week 9 against a Baltimore defense that is among the worst in the league in EPA/play.

During the preseason, many pundits predicted that New Orleans would have one of the league’s top defenses. Through eight games, the Saints have fallen far short of that expectation – ranking 12th in defensive EPA/play. However, their biggest issues have come against strong passing attacks. Entering play on Monday Night Football, the Saints rank 19th in Dropback EPA/play defensively, but have remained stout against opposing ground attacks, ranking 2nd in Rush EPA/play. If New Orleans can force Jackson to beat them through the air this evening, this defense should turn in a strong performance.

Ravens vs. Saints – Picks & Predictions

The Ravens are undeniably the more talented team in this matchup, but the Saints’ defense is well constructed to slow-down this Baltimore rushing attack. If New Orleans is able to keep Lamar Jackson from running wild tonight, the Saints should be able to keep this game competitive. Take the alternate spread in this spot at DraftKings, with push potential if the Saints lose by a field goal.

PICK: Saints +3 (-137, DraftKings)

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