Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Ravens Odds | +1.5 |
| Buccaneers Odds | -1.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 27 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Amazon |
This evening, Week 8 of the NFL regular season will begin with a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Entering play, both teams find themselves in first place in their respective divisions, but the Buccaneers are below .500 after seven games. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, pricing Tampa Bay as a 1.5-point home favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson was sensational to begin the new campaign, with 12 total touchdowns and only two interceptions through the first three weeks of the season. However, he has only three touchdowns and four interceptions in his last four games, and has only thrown for more than 174 passing yards once in that span. Since Week 4, Jackson ranks below league average in a number of key advanced metrics, including EPA/play, success rate, and CPOE. Fortunately for this Baltimore offense, they get to face a Tampa Bay defense that will be missing numerous key pieces in the secondary in this matchup.
On the defensive side of the ball, Baltimore has been extremely unimpressive – ranking 29th overall in EPA/play, 23rd in Dropback EPA/play, and 24th in Rush EPA/play. Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Brandon Stephens are each listed as questionable ahead of kickoff this evening, which could only further hurt this group’s ability to slow down the Tampa Bay offense. This is a unit with more than a few question marks heading into primetime.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Following a 2-0 start to the new campaign, Tom Brady and company have fallen to 3-4 as the calendar prepares to flip to November. At the root of their struggles has been poor play at the line of scrimmage, with Tampa Bay’s offensive line being limited by injuries, forcing depth pieces into starting roles. Poor offensive line play has contributed significantly to struggles on the ground for this offense, which has resulted in an imbalance in play-calling, with 31.7 percent of plays being runs and 68.3 percent of plays being through the air. Brady’s continued struggles when under pressure have not helped matters either. On Thursday, the Buccaneers will have to contend with a Baltimore defense that ranks 6th in the NFL in sacks through seven weeks this year.
Defensively, the Buccaneers have been impressive this season, ranking 6th in EPA/play. Yet, it is worth noting that the secondary is decimated heading into this contest, with Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Antonie Winfield Jr. all having been ruled out with injuries. Last week against the Carolina Panthers, this defense played reasonably well, holding the Panthers to only seven first half points, but fatigue set-in later in the game in an eventual 21-3 defeat. The Buccaneers were particularly ineffective against the run, allowing 173 rushing yards on only 27 attempts. Tonight, this group will have to face a much more dangerous offense, with Lamar Jackson coming to town.
Ravens vs. Buccaneers – Picks & Predictions
After seven games, the Buccaneers’ offense ranks 20th in EPA/play overall, 32nd on the ground, and 11th through the air. It may seem as though this is a “get-right” spot for Tom Brady and company, but there is little evidence to support such a claim – even against a Baltimore defense that has been extremely poor through the first portion of the regular season. The Ravens are 4-3, but all three of their losses came in closely-contested affairs, with one or two mistakes in the closing minutes resulting in a loss. At this point in the campaign, Baltimore is the more talented team, with their main impediment being themselves. If the Ravens can take care of the football and avoid costly errors late in the game, they should find a way to win tonight.
PICK: Ravens ML (+114, FanDuel)
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