Primetime Parlay: Bears vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:46:00

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a same-game parlay for the Chicago Bears versus the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.

The Los Angeles Chargers come into Week 8 in desperate need of a win. With back-to-back losses, the Chargers are on the outside looking into the playoff picture. Justin Herbert continues to play well but the results haven’t changed. The Bears on the other hand seem to be content to keep building with Justin Fields still nursing an injury. The Chargers are a large favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook — can the Bears keep this game close? Let’s build a same-game parlay to sweat along with Sunday night’s action.

Bears vs. Chargers Same Game Parlay

At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook offers the Chargers as 8.5-point home favorites against the Bears on Sunday night. The Bears, without Justin Fields, will look to continue their strong recent form after beating the Raiders in Week 7. Even at 2-5, the Bears continue to score points with or without Justin Fields. Chicago averaged 27.7 points per game over their last three matchups — top five in the NFL.

Per SAO, 61% of spread bets throughout the week side with the Chargers while only 33% of the betting handle chose the same side. With the bulk of the money on Chicago, we shouldn’t be surprised the line moved a full two points after opening at -10.5. As for the game total of 46.5 points, the bets and money are nearly split.

Justin Fields is out again, so Tyson Bagent will draw another start for Chicago. Bagent was more than serviceable in a victory over the Raiders, as the Bears were able to move the ball successfully on the ground with D’Onta Foreman. Foreman piled up three touchdowns, and the Bears were able to handle the Raiders.

For Chicago, Roschon Johnson will return after clearing concussion protocol but will likely serve as the complementary running back to Foreman after missing time. Johnson is the more talented pass-catching back and runs with abandon, but Foreman’s 187 yards over the past two games and three touchdowns cannot be ignored.

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DJ Moore continues to hoard targets for the Bears — seeing another 9 targets last weekend. While Moore only picked up 54 yards, his 636 receiving yards rank fifth in the NFL coming into the week.

The Chargers continue to disappoint for a team that scores so many points. Los Angeles averages 24.0 points per game this season — down after a few tough weeks — but still enough to flash a better record than 2-4. The Chargers’ defense allows 25.8 points per game despite being led by a defensive-minded head coach. So while the Chargers are big favorites, I wouldn’t be so sure that the Chargers can blow any team in the NFL out of a football game.

Gerald Everett and Joshua Palmer are questionable for the game although it seems that Palmer is the only player in actual danger of missing the game. Everett practiced throughout the week and should be good to go, while Palmer only practiced on a limited basis on Friday. Without Palmer, the Bears will see a heavy dose of Keenan Allen with a side of rookie Quentin Johnston.

While the Bears’ season seems like a wash, the Chargers can still contend for a playoff berth with a streak of wins. With the talent the Chargers possess, failing to make the playoffs would be disastrous. While I am not sure I would expect a blowout, I would be shocked if the Chargers didn’t get the job done at home on Sunday night.

Let’s take a look at what we can glean from the thousands of ParlayIQ simulations and build a same-game parlay.

Same Game Parlay Picks for SNF

Ekeler Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Kmet Over 26.5 Receiving Yards
Allen Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Foreman Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

Austin Ekeler Over 47.5 Rushing Yards

If Joshua Palmer sits, the Chargers will need to lean on the offensive stars on their roster. First, Austin Ekeler needs to get going. Despite reaching 14 carries in both games after his return, Ekeler hasn’t done much on the ground in 2023. Against a stingy Bears’ rushing defense, sledding might be just as tough.

For some reason, ParlayIQ projects this to hit in 80% of simulations. I am pretty puzzled. Perhaps, the loss of Joshua Palmer might lead to a few additional touches for Ekeler. With a robust projection for Ekeler, I can’t avoid opening up my ticket with him this evening.

Cole Kmet Over 26.5 Receiving Yards

The Chargers have allowed 33 catches to the tight end position for 381 receiving yards. The yardage total is 8th-worst in the league with one fewer game. Cole Kmet will have the opportunity to make that number worse for Los Angeles tonight.

While DJ Moore is the main man in this offense, Kmet has flashed upside in recent weeks. While last week was a bit slow, in the previous two games Kmet exploded for 14 catches, 127 yards, and three touchdowns. If the Chargers take the lead, young Tyson Bagent will need to throw the football. Kmet could see some easy throws over the middle of the field for the young signal-caller.

Keenan Allen Over 78.5 Receiving Yards

As mentioned above, the Chargers will need to lean on the two stars in their offense if Joshua Palmer cannot go. Keenan Allen is the most reliable option in the Los Angeles offense.

Allen boasts 64 targets over the first six games of the Chargers’ season. These targets come with Joshua Palmer and sometimes Mike Williams available in the offense. While it is entirely possible that Quentin Johnston finally contributes in a greater manner, I would assume Keenan Allen will just take on more work.

ParlayIQ favors this prop even more if we select the other two to start our ticket.

D’Onta Foreman Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

Normally, I stick with a three-leg parlay for these articles. ParlayIQ projects D’Onta Foreman going under his rushing total in a high percentage of simulations that include our previous three legs. This feels pretty logical.

For one, Roschon Johnson is back. Johnson looked incredible in his work before injury and the Bears have no reason to keep him on ice at this point. While the Bears could still make waves in a weak division, Chicago must want to evaluate what they have in Johnson. Foreman will probably maintain the larger share of rushing attempts, but Johnson might take just enough to keep Foreman below this number.

Finally, our script suggests the Chargers are having a day on offense. The likelihood would be that the Bears are forced to throw if the Chargers’ studs are doing their thing. I am going to add a fourth leg tonight. Remember, these are fun bets for very little money. I wouldn’t suggest you wager a great percentage of your funds on any of these bets.