NFL DFS Showdown Lineup Optimizer Values: Bears-Chargers DraftKings Picks
NFL Showdown season continues with the Bears at Chargers on Sunday Night Football. Our expert analysts are breaking down DraftKings Showdown picks with our in-house NFL DFS lineup optimizer. Sign up for RotoGrinders Premium for full access to our NFL lineup optimizer and fantasy football projections all season long.
We have a matchup of two-win teams, with the Bears coming in with a bit more momentum having won their last game and two of their last three, while the Chargers have lost two straight and have to be considering this a must-win game for any shot of the playoffs. Fields remains out, so Tyson Bagent will get his second career start, while Roschon Johnson has finally cleared concussion protocol and will add a 1-2 punch with Foreman to the Bears’ run game. Gerald Everett got a full practice in Friday but is still questionable with a hip injury, and if he’s out, we’d see a mix of Parham, Smartt, and McKitty at TE for LAC. Josh Palmer got a limited practice in Friday and is a true GTD with a knee injury, while Jalen Guyton is close to a return but won’t be activated this week.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bears at Chargers Week 8
Currently, this game is sitting at a 46.5 total, with the Chargers favored by 8.5 points. This is a huge line for two teams under .500, but it makes sense as the Chargers should have the edge at every offensive position, and Austin Ekeler is beyond due for another huge game like he had Week 1 before his ankle injury.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert is pretty much always a cash game lock on any showdown slate, but especially in this game against a Bears defense allowing 257.1 pass yards per game. He’s the most expensive player in this game but not by much, as Allen and Ekeler are right under him at 2nd and 3rd, but I would make sure find a flex spot for Herbert in your main build if he doesn’t make your captain spot.
Tyson Bagent was average in his first career start last week, throwing for 162 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers in an easy win against the Raiders. As big road underdogs, we should see him approach 40-45 pass attempts, and against the last-ranked Chargers’ pass defense allowing 310 pass yards per game, I think using Bagent in a flex spot makes a ton of sense. Bagent also has some rushing upside, and if he poaches a couple short rushing TDs and throws for a couple TDs he will be a smash play at his $9,000 salary.
Running Back
Using both QBs is going to make it challenging to fit in Austin Ekeler ($11,200), but it’s not impossible, and I think it’s a great way to maximize your overall upside. Ekeler only saw 15 touches last game, and the Chargers lost by two touchdowns, so I think they realize they need to get him at least 20 touches and involve him more in the passing game, especially with a less than 100% Palmer and Everett. Make sure to have plenty of Ekeler in the captain spot if you’re doing MME (mass multi-entry), and in cash games, I’d have him in a flex spot at minimum.
I’m still expecting Donta Foreman to lead the Bears backfield in touches after a monster three-TD game last week, but I won’t be using any Bears RBs in cash games, as they will likely get game-scripted out, and the Chargers rush D has been pretty solid, allowing under 100 rush yards per game. Roschon Johnson back in the mix will only complicate projected usages, but by all means sprinkle in some of each RB in GPP lineups. I would steer clear in your cash game lineup and focus on the Bears passing game instead.
Wide Receiver
DJ Moore ($9,200) will be hard to fit if you start with both QBs and Ekeler, but he is the highest upside skill player for Bears by a pretty wide margin, and I am going to do my best to jam him in my main build. He is an excellent value in the captain spot, and with 8+ targets in four straight games, I can’t see fading him in cash games due to the likely game script of this matchup along with how bad the Chargers pass defense has been. Darnell Mooney ($4,000) is a decent value play likely to see 4+ targets, and if there was ever a matchup and game script for him to get a long TD, this is it, so definitely include him in some GPP teams.
Keenan Allen ($11,800) is obviously a great play and potential game breaker, but in cash games, I will be spending most of my salary on Herbert / Ekeler / Bagent / Moore. I’m worried the Chargers could get a big enough lead where Allen doesn’t reach his ceiling to pay off his big price tag, and if Palmer misses this game, then the defense will really focus on stopping Allen. Basically you should have plenty of Allen exposure in GPPs, but in cash games, It’s looking like a choice between him and Ekeler, and I’m going with Ekeler. If Palmer ($7,000) does play, he’ll just be a GPP target for me, but if he sits, then Quentin Johnston ($4,800) definitely enters the cash game conversation.
Tight End
Cole Kmet ($5,600) didn’t see a single target from Bagent last week, so he’s off my cash game radar. Recency bias should lower his GPP ownership, so by all means, use him in some Bears stacks if you’re doing MME.
Gerald Everett ($5,000) is too risky for cash games if he’s active, as an aggravation of his hip injury is a possibility, plus the fact that he’s very TD dependent for value. If Everett is out, then Donald Parham ($4,200) would be an intriguing GPP flier to sprinkle in.
Defense / Special Teams
I won’t be on either defense in cash games, but I don’t mind using either kicker to fill a final flex spot or two. I prefer Cairo Santos ($4,400) at the $800 price discount to Dicker if you only go with one.
Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Strategy
I think a lineup with both QBs, Moore, and one of Ekeler / Allen will be optimal, and in order to fit all of them, I’m not opposed to punting a flex spot with a $200 guy like Tonyan in order to achieve that. Most builds should be 4-2 Chargers stacks with Bagent / Moore bring backs, while Mooney is the best Bears player to add in on 3-3 builds.
DraftKings DFS Showdown Rankings
1. Justin Herbert – The Chargers are going to score points, and I can’t see fading the guy likely involved in the majority of those points, especially with his rushing ability.
2. DJ Moore – Facing the worst pass defense in football and likely playing from behind, Moore is a must play in all formats.
3. Tyson Bagent – Same reasoning as Moore- great matchup and game script for a QB priced at just $9,000.
4. Austin Ekeler – He’s going to have another monster game sooner rather than later, and as big home favorites I think he scores at least 1 TD and has 100+ total yards.
5. Darnell Mooney / Both Kickers – Best options in the $4-5k price range to fill a final flex spot or two.
NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer for Sunday Night Football
Check out LineupHQ for this Showdown slate! It’s your one-stop shop for all of the tools you need to build and edit multiple lineups with one click, such as excluding certain players, adjusting your ownership and stack preferences, and doing any mass late-swap edits.