Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Odds, Prediction & Pick
Bears vs. Commanders Odds
| Bears Odds | +6 |
| Commanders Odds | -6 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 |
| Date | Thu, Oct. 5 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
This week’s NFL slate begins this evening with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. Washington won the only meeting between these two teams in 2022 by a final score of 12-7.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Commanders as 6-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 44.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields breakout incoming?
In Week 4, Justin Fields threw for a career-high 335 passing yards. However, bettors should be careful about expecting a repeat performance similar to what we saw last weekend against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have the lowest defensive pressure rate of any team in the NFL in 2023, which afforded Fields plenty of time to survey the field and find open receivers against a weak Denver secondary unit. Fields will not have an equally favorable matchup again for the entirety of the season.
That being said, Washington is far from a defensive juggernaut, and their defensive pressure rates are not astronomically better than Denver’s. Washington ranked 22nd in pressure rate out of 32 teams in Week 4 and 29th in pressure rate in Week 3. On a short week, and coming off of an overtime affair, it is fair to expect Washington to once again struggle to get after the quarterback. Fields might not have another 300-yard passing performance on Thursday, but 200 yards and a pair of passing touchdowns is a reasonable expectation.
Jackson and Johnson ruled OUT
Safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson have been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against the Commanders. This is the second week in a row that Chicago’s secondary unit will be without Jackson and Johnson, the team’s top two coverage options. Last Sunday, the Bears allowed Russell Wilson to complete 21-of-28 pass attempts for 223 passing yards and three touchdowns. Of Wilson’s 223 passing yards, 138 came after the catch. Each of Chicago’s projected starting cornerbacks in the secondary tonight rank 84th or worse out of 111 qualified players at their position in coverage grade this season, according to PFF. Both safeties rank 80th or worse out of 89 qualified players in coverage grade. Combining a lack of talent in the secondary unit with an inability to get pressure on the opposing quarterback – it should be no surprise that the Bears rank 31st in EPA/play and 26th in success rate on the defensive side of the ball through four weeks. This group is likely to struggle again this evening.
Washington Commanders
Sam Howell experiment not off to a great start
According to PFF, Sam Howell ranks 17th among qualified signal callers in passer rating and yards per attempt from a clean pocket so far this fall. He has been even worse under pressure, ranking 31st in passer rating, throwing for only one touchdown against four interceptions. Though Chicago has one of the worst secondary units in the NFL, Howell has a low ceiling from week to week, making him difficult to trust for the betting community on props or as a touchdown favorite on the spread. Howell is yet to have a 300-yard passing performance in 2023 and he has taken at least four sacks in each game he has played so far, meaning that he is a constant threat to kill drives by holding on to the ball for too long. Washington’s offense has a favorable matchup on Thursday, but it remains to be seen if they are able to take advantage of it.
Washington defense struggling to begin 2023
Entering play on Thursday, Washington’s defense ranks 24th in Dropback EPA/play and 18th in Rush EPA/play. Looking at more traditional measures of evaluation, Washington ranks 26th in passing yards allowed per play and 24th in rushing yards allowed per play. The Commanders rank in the bottom half of the league in first downs allowed per game and third-down percentage as well.
Further complicating matters going into tonight is the fact that Washington played an overtime affair on Sunday in a physical battle against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Commanders’ defense was on the field for over 30 minutes and played 67 defensive snaps in the losing effort. Per Clevta, teams playing on Thursday Night Football after playing in overtime are 3-21 ATS when their opponent is not coming off of an overtime game. This group could struggle tonight, even against a weak Chicago offense.
Bears vs. Commanders – Picks & Predictions
According to The Athletic, Chicago is 2-5 as a franchise on Thursday Night Football since 2007. However, that is more a reflection of the overall struggles of the organization across the last two decades than it is a meaningful note about Thursdays in particular. Washington has two wins so far this season, but neither has come by more than four points – and the Commanders were out-gained in one of those contests.
Teams that are coming off of an overtime game heading into a Thursday night matchup have struggled mightily against the spread in recent history. There are plenty of reasons to not trust Chicago, but the list is not much shorter when looking at Washington’s roster. Getting a full touchdown on the spread, take a deep breath, and take a small stab on the road underdogs in this spot if choosing to take a side.
PICK: Bears +6 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)