Primetime Parlay: Bengals vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:54:36

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Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped create a variety of fun Same Game Parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through thousands of simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting apps. Along with the simulations, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our Same Game Parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Same Game Parlay for the Cincinnati Bengals versus the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football.

After an exciting late window on Sunday, the NFL closes Week 13 with a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Undoubtedly, the NFL had high hopes for this game when making the schedule. Losing Joe Burrow for the season has put quite the damper on festivities, tonight. For us, we look to go back-to-back with a winning same-game parlay ticket. We will start with betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook before going through injuries and relevant statistics. Let’s build a ticket.

Playing DFS tonight? Try out SimLabs, now in beta, to work on Showdown lineups for tonight’s game.

Bengals vs. Jaguars Same Game Parlay

The Jaguars are 9.5-point home favorites against the ailing Bengals. Per ScoresAndOdds, 70% of spread bets have chosen the Jaguars side while 55% of betting handle sided with the Bengals. The larger bets are coming on on the Bengals’ point spread. As for the over/under, the 39.5-point implied game total saw most of its ticket volume on the under side. 71% of bets on the total side with the under while only 45% of betting handle agrees.

Perhaps, the sharper side of the betting community is underwhelmed by the Jaguars despite a great record. The Jaguars are often not blowing away opponents and more often than not their games tend to be close at the end. The Bengals, though, will struggle with Jake Browning under center. Browning has played good enough in relief of Burrow but the chasm between the two is quite wide. An average defense could look a lot better against the inexperienced Browning.

For injuries, the Bengals welcome back Tee Higgins to the offense — offering Jake Browning another great option. Cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt will not play against the Jaguars. The timing of this injury is not idea given the volume of weapons the Jaguars bring to the table.

For the Jaguars, LT Cam Robinson was placed on injured reserve and could miss 3-6 weeks. Travis Etienne is questionable and would leave a big hole if he could not play on Monday night. D’Ernest Johnson seems to have a grasp on the RB2 job over rookie Tank Bigsby. If Etienne cannot go, look for both backs to see work against the Bengals.

Let’s get the relevant statistics for each offense posted before discussion:

Jacksonville Offense
10th — 23.1 PPG
15th — 5.2 YPP
9th — 7.4 Passing YPA
30th — 3.7 Rushing YPA

Cincinnati Offense
23rd — 19.3 PPG
25th — 4.9 YPP
25th — 6.4 Passing YPA
27th — 3.8 Rushing YPA

For an 8-3 team, the Jaguars leave plenty to be desired. An inability to run the football successfully might explain the difficulty closing games out in the NFL. With the Chiefs’ loss on Sunday night, the Jaguars are still in contention for the top seed in the AFC. Against some of the better pass defenses in the playoffs, the Jaguars will need to find a way to get Travis Etienne and company going.

For the Bengals, our expectations should not be too high. While the Jaguars allow a 25th-worst 5.5 yards per play on defense, the Bengals’ offense has struggled mightily to move the football in 2023. Between injuries to Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, Cincinnati never got off the ground this season. Jake Browning will need to protect the football and get the football in the hands of his playmakers. Perhaps, the addition of Tee Higgins will add a strong enough additional dynamic to help the Bengals keep the game close.

The game feels like a potential laugher but the betting action gives me great pause. Without Joe Burrow, the higher volume of money betting the over and on the Bengals makes me wonder if this game isn’t going to be closer than it would seem. Let’s see what ParlayIQ thinks about tonight’s game.

Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football

Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards
Chase Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
Over 39.5 Points

Trevor Lawrence Over 14.5 Rushing Yards

We hit our Patrick Mahomes rushing prop at the very end of last night’s game. Trevor Lawrence brings similar mobility to the position and faces a great matchup for rushing quarterbacks.

The Bengals allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to the quarterback position with a game still to play. The defense is not good, generally, and Lawrence always has the potential to rip off a ten yard run when a defense is caught sleeping in man coverage.

I am admittedly a bit worried about the dreaded kneel down loss for this prop but hope that Lawrence builds enough cushion to avoid that type of beat. Trevor has eclipsed this number in seven of eleven games.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 57.5 Receiving Yards

Ja’Marr Chase managed 80 yards through the air with Jake Browning. While Browning isn’t Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase is still Ja’Marr Chase. This yardage total is so deflated but the game script would suggest the Bengals should play from behind.

Given Trevor Lawrence exceeding his rushing prop already locked in, ParlayIQ sees this over in 51% of simulations. We aren’t exactly beating the vig with this one but I find it challenging to love anything on the Bengals side this evening. So, why not focus on the best player on the team?

I think there is a chance Ja’Marr Chase hits this prop with me at quarterback. Alright, I am just kidding but you get the point.

Over 39.5 Points

This number is so very tantalizing. This feels like a trap but… ParlayIQ has given me the confidence to pull the trigger.

Further, sharper bettors clearly prefer to take the value on this side of the total given all of the tickets bet on the over. We wouldn’t be making a mistake by fading the betting public and backing those with deeper pockets.

With the sims and sharps on our side, I am going to hope the Jaguars’ defense continues to not dominate games. Maybe we can get a couple of touchdowns from Cincinnati before the Jaguars close the door.