Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Bengals vs. Jaguars Odds
| Bengals Odds | +10 |
| Packers Odds | -10 |
| Over/Under | 40.0 |
| Date | Mon, Dec. 4 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Monday Night Football will feature Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals against Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Though this matchup has lost some of its star power with Joe Burrow on the mend, there are still major playoff implications for the Jaguars in this game, with them holding only a narrow lead in the AFC South division.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Jaguars as 10-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 40 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals
What to expect from Jake Browning
Since taking over for the injured Joe Burrow, Jake Browning has completed 27-of-40 pass attempts, but only has 295 passing yards to show for his efforts. The coaching staff has been ultra conservative with Browning and the passing game in recent weeks, with only three of his attempts being 20+ yards downfield. In fact, 23 of his attempts have been within nine yards of the line of scrimmage.
In Week 12, Browning ranked 25th out of 32 quarterbacks in average depth of target (aDOT) from a clean pocket and 26th in aDOT when under pressure. Simply, he is not going to air out the ball through the air on Monday, or any time soon for that matter.
Cam Taylor-Britt placed on Injured Reserve
According to Laurel Pfahler, the Bengals have placed cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt on injured reserve due to an ankle injury. Britt had been in the midst of a productive sophomore campaign, ranking 59th out of 118 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF.
Cincinnati’s secondary unit, which was already struggling, is now in even worse shape heading into Monday Night Football against Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. From Week 8 to Week 12, the Bengals pass defense ranked 28th in EPA/play and 31st in success rate.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence looking to stay hot
From Week 4 to Week 12, Jacksonville’s offense ranked 10th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate. During that stretch, Trevor Lawrence ranked 4th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and 8th in success rate. However, he has done a lot of his damage without taking a lot of shots downfield. During that stretch, Lawrence ranked only 18th in air yards per attempt and 30th out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in aDOT from a clean pocket. Favored by 10 points on Monday, we are likely to continue seeing a lot of work near the line of scrimmage for this Jacksonville offense.
Jaguars defense putting pressure on opposing offenses
In Week 12, the Jaguars led all defenses with a 63.3% pressure rate when they played the Texans. The next-best defensive pressure rate for the week was 48.5% by the Ravens. Jacksonville’s defensive pressure rate has been trending up since their bye – posting a 27.4% pressure rate in Week 10, 35.0% pressure rate in Week 11, and culminating with last week’s dominant 63.3% pressure rate.
Jake Browning has been pressured on 22 of his 54 dropbacks in 2023 and had one of the worst rates of pressures turning into sacks in his first start last weekend against the Steelers. This Jaguars defense could feast on Monday.
Bengals vs. Jaguars – Picks & Predictions
On Monday, Jake Browning will do his very best to lead the Bengals offense, but he has been woefully overmatched in his time on the field in 2023, having been pressured on 22 of his 54 dropbacks. Last week, nearly every throw Browning made was within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Even the return of Tee Higgins to the field is unlikely to save Browning from a dangerous Jacksonville pass rush.
Trevor Lawrence and company have been on a roll, minus one embarrassing loss to the 49ers. Since Week 4, the team is 7-1 with the advanced metrics supporting their status as one of the better teams in the NFL. Still, the offense has been mostly dink-and-dunk, with very few deep shots downfield. Cincinnati’s defense is certainly vulnerable in the secondary unit, but Jacksonville is likely to opt for a more conservative game plan in a lopsided affair.
The under makes sense to end Week 13.
PICK: Under 40 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)