Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Rams Odds, Prediction & Pick
Rams vs. Bengals Odds
| Rams Odds | +3 |
| Bengals Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 46 |
| Date | Mon, Sep. 25 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Monday’s NFL double-header will conclude with a Super Bowl 56 rematch between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Though the status of Joe Burrow has been in question for most of the week, he is expected to play this evening, per local reports earlier this afternoon.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the Bengals as 3-point favorites on the spread in this matchup. The total for this contest is set at over/under 46 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford off to a hot start
Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions last week against the Rams, but that should not diminish how well he has played overall through two weeks. From a clean pocket, only Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy, and C.J. Stroud have averaged more yards per attempt than Stafford, according to PFF. On 68 such dropbacks, Stafford has only one throw turnover-worthy-throw. Stafford has 641 passing yards through two games, despite the fact that he has suffered from the highest drop rate from his pass catchers of any quarterback in the NFL. It is clear that Stafford is healthy this season, and the outcomes should continue to be strong on a week-to-week basis as his offensive line can continue to give him time to throw.
Defense returning key contributors
Though the Rams have surprised the league with a 1-1 start to the season, their defense is likely just as bad as everyone predicted. Even counting a strong Week 1 performance against Seattle, Los Angeles ranks 20th in sacks per pass attempt, 23rd in yards allowed per play, and have yet to force a takeaway.
Per PFF, starting cornerbacks Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon both rank 77th or worse in coverage grade through two games, out of 102 qualified players at their position. The Rams linebacker corps is among the least talented in the entire NFL. Other than Aaron Donald, there is simply not much to work with on this side of the ball for defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. As the season goes on, this group is likely to continue to see their production regress to the bottom-third of the league.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow expected to play
It is difficult to overstate how poorly Joe Burrow has played so far this fall. Burrow ranks 30th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating from a clean pocket and 21st in passer rating when under pressure. His completion percentage and yards per attempt from a clean pocket and under pressure each ranks 30th or worse.
Burrow missed all of training camp and the preseason due to a calf injury that he sustained over the summer. He reportedly “re-tweaked” his calf injury near the end of Cincinnati’s Week 2 loss against Baltimore, which led to him missing practice time this past week, in addition to earning himself an ominous golf cart ride.
Cincinnati defense struggling to get pressure early in the year
In their season opener against Cleveland, Cincinnati ranked 17th out of 32 teams in pressure rate. Last weekend against Baltimore, Cincinnati ranked 31st out of 32 teams in pressure rate. The inability to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks has led to only one interception in two games.
This past off-season the Bengals lost both of last year’s starting safeties, which has also hurt this unit tremendously. Entering play on Monday, Cincinnati ranks 27th in yards allowed per game, 29th in first downs allowed per game, and 25th in Red Zone percentage. This defense is in much different shape than it has been the last two seasons, and the market is yet to completely adjust to that fact.
Rams vs. Bengals – Picks & Predictions
The Los Angeles Rams are certainly not as good as they looked in Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks, but they are also much better than their basement projections from the preseason. The Cincinnati Bengals have been a complete mess on both sides of the ball to start the year, with their highly-paid quarterback playing through a bothersome calf injury and their defense adjusting to a number of new starters at important positions. The lack of pressure on the quarterback from Cincinnati’s defense is likely to result in a number of points being scored tonight by a surprisingly potent Los Angeles offense. The Rams defense is hard to trust on the road, but it is difficult to trust a hobbled Joe Burrow as a home favorite after what we have seen this month. Finding a way to invest in the road underdogs in this spot should be a top priority for the betting community.
LEAN: Rams +3 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)
PICK: Rams Team Total o20.5 points (-115, BetMGM)