Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds, Prediction & Pick
Bengals vs. Ravens Odds
| Bengals Odds | +3.5 |
| Ravens Odds | -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 46.5 |
| Date | Thu, Nov. 16 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
Week 11 of the NFL regular season will begin with a Thursday Night Football affair between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video for this AFC North showdown.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 46.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals
What to expect from Joe Burrow
Prior to last weekend against the Texans, Joe Burrow had put together back-to-back extremely impressive performances, throwing for 631 passing yards and five touchdowns without an interception. Against Houston, however, Burrow had a pair of costly turnovers in a devastating 30-27 loss.
According to PFF, both of the interceptions Burrow threw against Houston came when under pressure. Overall, Burrow was 20-for-28 on the afternoon from a clean pocket, but only 7-for-12 with the two aforementioned turnovers when under duress.
Baltimore’s defense ranked 7th-best in pressure rate in Week 10 and 2nd-best in Week 9. If they can get pressure on Burrow this evening, they are likely to make life difficult for the Cincinnati offense.
Sam Hubbard ruled OUT
Edge defender Sam Hubbard has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Ravens, leaving an already poor Cincinnati run defense in even worse shape for an important divisional game. Per PFF, Hubbard ranks 29th out of 98 players at his position in run defense in 2023. He is, arguably, Cincinnati’s most important defender in the run game.
Overall this year, the Bengals’ defense ranks 28th in rush EPA/play and 24th in rush success rate. Last week, this unit allowed 150 rushing yards to Devin Singletary, who had only 209 rushing yards combined in his first eight games this fall.
Cincinnati is extremely vulnerable on the ground on Thursday, with Lamar Jackson, Keaton Mitchell, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill all serving as capable options to run the ball.
Baltimore Ravens
Ronnie Stanley ruled OUT
Starting left tackle Ronnie Staley has been ruled out for tonight’s game due to a knee injury. From Week 2 to Week 4, with Staley not on the field, Baltimore’s offense ranked 13th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate. Since he returned in Week 5, the Ravens offense ranks 7th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate – not a tremendous split, but notable nonetheless.
Staley will be replaced by Patrick Mekari, who is a downgrade as a pass blocker but an upgrade as a run blocker. Expect Baltimore to lean heavily into a run-first offensive game plan this evening against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled to slow down opposing ground games this year.
Marlon Humphrey DOUBTFUL
Cornerback Marlon Humphrey, officially listed as doubtful for this evening, is unlikely to play, according to local media reports. Humphrey is a significant loss for this Baltimore defense as a pass rusher and in coverage. Humphrey has primarily played out wide in 2023, and will be replaced by the significantly less talented Rock Ya-Sin.
Fortunately for the Ravens, the Bengals will be without wide receiver Tee Higgins tonight, which makes this matchup less of a concern. Overall, Baltimore’s defense, which ranks 4th in EPA/play and 7th in success rate since Week 5, projects well on Thursday.
Bengals vs. Ravens – Picks & Predictions
According to Jay Morrison, the Cincinnati Bengals have lost 14 consecutive regular season and playoff road games in prime time. Even more staggering, Cincinnati has lost 25 of their last 26 road games played at night. This ugly trend is likely to continue tonight against the Ravens.
Cincinnati will be without their top run defender, making an already weak run defense even more poorly equipped to stop a potent Baltimore Ravens rushing attack. The Ravens should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage in this contest, which makes them a deserving favorite in this spot.
Buy the hook to secure a push if this divisional game comes down to a last-second field goal.
PICK: Ravens -3 (-135, Fanatics Sportsbook)