Best San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers Prop Bets
What kind of performances can prop bettors expect from Davante Adams, Elijah Mitchell, and Aaron Rodgers on Saturday? Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his four favorite 49ers vs. Packers player props. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy to start winning cash on NFL player props tonight!
On Saturday evening, the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers will battle at Lambeau Field in a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship Game. San Francisco was arguably the best team in the NFL during the second half of the season, winning seven of their final nine regular season contests to secure a playoff berth. Green Bay was embarrassed in their season opener against the New Orleans Saints, but won 13 of their subsequent 15 games to earn the top seed in the NFC playoffs. In this matchup of elite teams, oddsmakers are anticipating a relatively easy Green Bay victory–pricing the Packers as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread.
As we approach kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this postseason affair.
Best 49ers vs. Packers Prop Bets
Davante Adams 100+ receiving yards (+104)
PrizePicks: 90.5 yards
It goes without saying that Davante Adams is the top option for Aaron Rodgers in the Green Bay passing game. Per EdgHouse, Adams has totaled 100 receiving yards in 8-of-16 games played this season. On the year, Adams has commanded a dominating 29.8 percent target share in the Packers’ passing attack, and 30.8 percent of all receptions. On Saturday, Adams is likely to see Ambry Thomas frequently in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, Thomas ranked 102nd out of 121 eligible cornerbacks this fall. Adams is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, and will get a number of snaps against one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL in this one. Adams could have a massive performance.
Elijah Mitchell o18.5 rushing attempts (-114)
PrizePicks: N/A
The only legitimate explanation for this line being so low is an expectation that the 49ers will be playing from behind in this one, and will thus be throwing the ball frequently. Though logically sound, considering that San Francisco is a touchdown underdog–the logic falls apart upon closer examination. In Week 18, the 49ers trailed by 14 points in the second half, but remained committed to the run–and Mitchell ended that contest with 21 carries against a strong run defense. On Saturday, Mitchell gets a matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in frigid temperatures at Lambeau Field. Mitchell has received 21 carries or more in six consecutive games. Expect him to get another heavy workload against the Packers, as long as San Francisco can keep the game reasonably competitive.
Aaron Rodgers o2.5 passing touchdowns (+154)
PrizePicks: N/A
Since Week 10, San Francisco is allowing only 3.6 yards-per-carry on the ground. On the offensive line for the Packers, Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, Lucas Patrick, and Billy Turner all finished the regular season with a below-average run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus. If Green Bay is going to score points in this one, it is likely going to be through the air–where San Francisco is far more exploitable. Rodgers threw three touchdowns or more in a single game fix times over his final 10 starts this fall. At significant plus-money, this could be a worthwhile risk for bettors.
Aaron Rodgers o24.5 completions (-108)
PrizePicks: 24.0 completions
If looking for a less risky wager than asking for three passing touchdowns from Rodgers, the same logic applies to his pass completions. Green Bay is likely to struggle mightily to run the football on Saturday. The Packers’ offensive gameplan could combat their offensive line struggles with a number of quick passes near, or behind the line of scrimmage. When these two teams met in Week 3, Rodgers finished the day with 23 completions in a winning effort, but that was against a struggling 49ers defense. San Francisco has improved tremendously on the defensive line since that point. Expect a lot more emphasis on the passing game in the rematch. Take the over here.
Image Credit: Imagn