Best Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Bets
What kind of performances can prop bettors expect from Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Josh Allen, and Travis Kelce on Sunday? Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his four favorite Bills vs. Chiefs player props. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy to start winning cash on NFL player props tonight!
On Sunday evening, the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs will battle at Arrowhead Stadium for a chance to host the AFC Championship Game. When these two teams met in Week 5, the Bills dominated the Chiefs in a 38-20 victory. Since that game, Buffalo is 8-5 overall, including their 30-point victory over the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round. Sine Week 5, Kansas City is 11-2, with their only two losses coming to the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals–both of whom played on Saturday in the AFC playoffs. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair in this one–pricing the Chiefs as 1.5-point home favorites on the spread.
As we approach kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for this postseason affair.
Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props
Stefon Diggs u6.5 receptions (-154)
PrizePicks: 5.5 receptions
Last weekend, Stefon Diggs only received four total targets in a game in which Josh Allen threw for five touchdowns and over 300 yards. Though Diggs is typically a frequent target in the Buffalo passing attack, it is worth noting that he has arguably the toughest matchup of any Bills receiver in this divisional-round affair. Charvarius Ward is not elite in coverage, but he is likely good enough to keep Diggs under this number on Sunday–a number that Diggs has eclipsed only three times since Thanksgiving.
Tyreek Hill u70.5 receiving yards (-110)
PrizePicks: 67.5 Yards
It is extremely perplexing that we continue to see Tyreek Hill’s receiving prop line listed this high on the market. Hill has not totaled more than 57 receiving yards in any of his last four games played. In three of those four games, Hill has received five targets or less, meaning that he is not even getting the opportunity to make plays. Furthermore, Hill is likely to see quite a few snaps against Taron Johnson on Sunday, who is one of the better cover cornerbacks in the NFL. This is not a great matchup for a receiver that has been trending downwards over the last month of action. Take the under.
Josh Allen – Most Passing Yards – BUF/KC (-106)
PrizePicks: N/A
In Week 5, Josh Allen threw for 315 yards against the Chiefs, despite completing only 15-of-26 pass attempts. In that same game, Patrick Mahomes threw for only 272 yards, despite the fact that he attempted 54 (!!) passes. In the rematch, the Chiefs would be wise to establish more of a running game, which will likely limit Mahomes to less than 40 pass attempts. The Bills have arguably the best secondary unit in the entire NFL. Expect Allen to win this head-to-head statistical duel on Sunday.
Travis Kelce – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-125)
PrizePicks: 0.5 touchdown receptions
Travis Kelce has found paydirt in four consecutive games for the Chiefs. In those four contests, Kelce has been targeted 13 times, 7 times, 5 times, and 7 times. When searching for a potential touchdown scorer, bettors should look for high volume players. Kelce certainly sees plenty of looks in the Kansas City passing attack. In what is likely to be a high-scoring affair, bettors should expect Kelce to see at least a handful of red zone targets. Don’t bet the house here, but also don’t be surprised if Kelce scores a touchdown in his 5th straight game.
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