MLB Sunday Night Baseball Player Props: Pena, Alvarez, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (April 30)
What kind of performances can we expect on Sunday Night Baseball from Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, and Martin Maldonado? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Sunday, April 30, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
This week’s MLB schedule will conclude with a matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:00 p.m. EST. The Phillies will hand the ball to Bailey Falter, who will be opposed by Jose Urquidy.
Ahead of first pitch, the Astros are priced at -145 on the moneyline. The total for this matchup is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
If looking to attack the player prop market rather than the side or total in this spot, we have three leans posted below for tonight’s matchup.
Below are three prop leans for April 30 as we look to stay hot!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
1st Inning: 0-3
Dinger Tuesday: 2-4
Hitter: 9-14
Outs Recorded: 13-3
Stolen Base: 0-2
Strikeout: 20-11
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MLB Player Props Today
- Jeremy Pena o1.5 total bases
- Yordan Alvarez o1.5 total bases
- Martin Maldonado less than 0.5 total bases
Jeremy Pena o1.5 total bases (+115), BetMGM
We are still early in the 2023 campaign, but Jeremy Pena has had sustained success against left-handed pitching, dating back to last season. In his career, Pena owns a .285 batting average, .855 OPS, and a 141 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared to a .239 batting average, .678 OPS, and a 91 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Fortunately for Pena, tonight he gets a matchup against left-hander Bailey Falter, who has a 4.77 FIP and a .261 opponent batting average in his career against right-handed hitters. At plus money, this is great value on Pena in this matchup.
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 total bases (-105), BetMGM
Typically, we do not recommend left-handed hitters to do damage against left-handed pitching, but there are two reasons that Yordan Alvarez is an exception to the rule tonight – 1) Bailey Falter has not been particularly tough on left-handed batters in his career; 2) Alvarez has been just as dominant against southpaws as he has against right-handed pitching in his career. Entering play on Sunday, Alvarez owns a career .967 OPS and a 164 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared to a .973 OPS and a 164 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. There is no such thing as a poor matchup for Alvarez – take the over here.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Martin Maldonado less than 0.5 total bases, PrizePicks
Whereas there is no such thing as a tough matchup for Yordan Alvarez, there is no such thing as a favorable matchup for Martin Maldonado. Since the beginning of 2021, Maldonado owns a .175 batting average and has struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances. Maldonado was better against southpaws in 2022, but still only posted a .212 batting average in 110 plate appearances in these situations. Maldonado is as close to an automatic out as there is in the big leagues – do not expect much from him with the bat tonight…or really ever.
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