Best NFL Prop Bets for the Chiefs-Broncos and Cowboys-Eagles
What kind of performances can prop bettors expect from Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Courtland Sutton, and Ezekiel Elliott in Week 18? Follow along as NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down his four favorite NFL player props for Saturday. Not in a state with legal sports betting? Sign up at Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks to start picking props tonight!
On Saturday, the NFL has a double-header, beginning with the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos at 4:30 pm EST, followed by the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles for the late game. There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty as it pertains to sides and totals for these two games, with so many key players potentially being rested, and it being unclear how seriously each of these teams will attempt to win.
On top of the uncertainty with these two games, as we approach kickoff, the value on the spread and the total has been reduced compared to its opening market price. Instead of forcing action on saturated markets, bettors may find more expected value on player props for these Saturday games..
NFL Player Props
Patrick Mahomes – No Interception (-140)
PrizePicks: N/A
Patrick Mahomes had a reckless beginning to the 2021 campaign, throwing 10 interceptions in his first eight games played. He has settled down since that point, totaling only three interceptions across his last eight starts. When Mahomes played the Broncos in Week 13, Denver was near full strength on the defensive side of the ball. In that contest, Pat Surtain II intercepted Mahomes, but Surtain II has been ruled out for this Week 18 affair. Denver’s secondary will also be missing safety Kareem Jackson and cornerback Ronald Darby. Other than Justin Simmons, the Broncos have very little talent in their secondary unit on Saturday. Mahomes should have little trouble taking care of the ball, with an unlucky tipped pass being the main risk factor on this play.
Tyreek Hill – Over 63.5 receiving yards (-115)
PrizePicks: O/U 59.5 Yards
The market is understandably ice cold on Tyreek Hill right now. In Hill’s last five games he has totaled 40 receiving yards or less three times. When Hill played Denver in Week 13, he secured only two receptions on five targets for 22 receiving yards. Yet, in those five games, Hill has still been Mahomes’ top option in the passing game, commanding a 21.9 percent target share. Twice in those five games, Hill has seen double-digit targets. Considering that Denver will be without Pat Surtain II, Kareem Jackson, and Ronald Darby in the secondary on Saturday, it seems reasonable to buy stock in a strong performance from Hill.
Courtland Sutton – Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
PrizePicks: O/U 25.5 Yards
Over the last three weeks, Courtland Sutton is tied for the team-lead in targets. Sutton has clearly been “(player-popup #drew-lock)Drew Lock”:/players/drew-lock-982657’s favorite wide receiver since taking over as Denver’s starting quarterback, following an injury to Teddy Bridgewater. The Chiefs have been strong against the pass during the second-half of the campaign, but as last week illustrated–they are still far from being an elite defense. On Saturday, Sutton is likely to see a mix of coverage against Rashad Fenton and L’Jarius Sneed. Fenton is a tough matchup, but there should be enough snaps against Sneed–and enough volume, in terms of targets, for Sutton to eclipse this number in Week 18.
Ezekiel Elliott – Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+115)
*PrizePicks: N/A
Ezekiel Elliott has scored a rushing touchdown in eight of the 16 games in which he has played this season. Though the Cowboys have been non-committal about how much playing time their starters will get in this contest, it would be surprising if Elliott and the rest of the offense did not play at least the entire first half. Jerry Jones has expressed his desire for Dallas to play to win on Saturday. When the person writing the checks asks for something, often those comments have a significant influence. Elliott should see enough playing time in this one to have at least a couple of opportunities near the goal line. At plus-money, this could be worth a small wager.
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