Big 12 Preview: Betting Odds and 2023 College Football Predictions
We are just over a month away from the kickoff of the 2023 College Football season! In an effort to prepare ourselves for this upcoming campaign, we are going to do a preview and prediction series for some of the major conferences, breaking down team win totals, odds, roster changes and outlooks, and more. We already discussed the Big 10 Conference as well as the SEC Conference, and now we turn our sights towards the Big 12!
Big 12 Preview: Championship Odds
Let’s take a look at how the conference shakes out in terms of betting odds to win the conference.
- Texas +105
- Oklahoma +340
- Kansas State +500
- Texas Tech +1200
- TCU +1600
- Baylor +1800
- UCF +3500
- Kansas +3500
- Oklahoma State +4000
- BYU +8000
- Cincinnati +12000
- West Virginia +15000
- Houston +20000
This conference seems like it’s Texas’ to lose. I understand they lost one of the best offensive producers in their school’s history in Bijan Robinson, but they also return almost all of their outside weapons from last year including star WR Xavier Worthy. They will also get Quinn Ewers back who could take a big step forward in year two. At +105, it is not a bet I am dying to make due to the value, but Texas is my pick to win this conference, and I will hype them up more later in this article as they are one of my favorite teams this year.
Another reason why I like Texas so much this year is simply that there aren’t a ton of other teams who inspire a lot of confidence or excitement as teams who can potentially win this conference. You have several teams who project to be really bad, as well as several teams who are new to the conference and will likely have to adjust to a new level of competition. If you’re seeking a longshot within this conference, I’d look to embrace the volatility of these teams past Texas and Oklahoma and go down the board a bit with Kansas, who you can find at +4000 to win this conference.
The Jayhawks won just six games last year, but also lost the heart of their team in dynamic QB Jalon Daniels for a good portion of the year. This team returns 17 starters from last year as they look to continue their improvements and definitely gained some momentum last year. I like the Kansas offense quite a bit, led by Daniel and headlined by RB Devin Neal; however, their defense will need to improve if they have any chance to pull off the Cinderella run, as they were one of the worst in the conference. Kansas State and Texas Tech are two other teams that have caught my eye if looking to bet a longer shot team to win this conference.
Heisman Odds
There are zero Big 10 players inside the top 9 of betting odds, but here are the players within this conference with the shortest odds to take home the nation’s most prestigious college football individual award;
- Quinn Ewers +1200
- Dillon Gabriel +3500
- Arch Manning +8000
- Will Howard +10000
- Jalon Daniels +10000
As you can tell, the overall Heisman market within the Big 12 tells a very similar picture as the Conference Champion odds; it’s likely Texas or Oklahoma or bust. You have to go way down the board after Ewers and Gabriel and the first name you bump into after those two is Arch Manning, who will likely come into the season as the third QB on his roster.
Check out more 2023 College Football odds, schedules, matchups, and win probabilities with the tool below, powered by Action Analytics and created by Action Network’s own Collin Wilson.
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Big 12 Team Previews & Roster Notes
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns have received a ton of hype this offseason, and if you’re looking for an article that won’t continue to hype them up – this is not the article. I am a big fan of what the Longhorns have this year, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Truthfully, I think that they won’t miss a beat with star RB Bijan Robinson gone. When you look at the production from running backs last year, every back who received regular touches was highly efficient. Roschon Johnson (who also left for the NFL) averaged nearly 6 YPC with 5 TDs, and Jonathan Brooks (who returns and could be the starter) averaged 6.6 YPC and also scored 5 TDs. They also added top high school RB CJ Baxter, who could easily step in immediately and make a huge impact. I expect a large step forward for QB Quinn Ewers who has another year under his belt and is surrounded by elite receiving weapons, headlined by returning weapons WR Xavier Worthy, WR Jordan Whittington and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders who will be joined by Georgia transfer WR Adonai Mitchell. If Quinn Ewers can meet expectations, a national title is the ceiling for this Texas team.
Oklahoma Sooners
I’m sure Sooner fans are feeling a bit left out this offseason with the Longhorns getting all the love, but there is a lot to like for the Sooners as well. Dillon Gabriel returns after an efficient 2022 season, and although he did lose a few weapons, there are still some solid names on this offense. WR Jalil Farooq and WR Drake Stoops return and the addition of Michigan transfer WR Andrel Anthony will add some big-play ability to this stout receiving core as well. The loss of Eric Gray is a big one, but Javontae Barnes and high school standout 5-star Gavin Sawchuk provide plenty of excitement in this backfield. The defense will need to improve as they failed to meet expectations last year under new defensive-minded HC Brent Venables.
Kansas State Wildcats
Like Texas, the Wildcats of Kansas State are also going to be without one of their school’s most productive offensive players at Deuce Vaughn left for the draft, they also lost top WR Malik Knowles. They do have QB Will Howard returning, but the running back room here will be quite interesting. FSU transfer Treshaun Ward joins the team and could very easily lead this team, but they also have exciting young RB DJ Giddens, who averaged 5.8 YPC and added 6 TDs last year. The defense was solid last year as well, and the combination of a good rushing attack plus a stout defense could be a deadly one in the Big 12 this year.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
QB Tyler Shough came on and showed some sparks late in the season last year, and this high-flying offense will have plenty of weapons as well with returning WRs Jerand Bradley and Myles Price having high expectations this year, along with transfer WR Drae McCray. Per usual, the Tech defense allowed a ton of points and yards last year, but this offense has plenty of firepower of their own to take on these teams in shootouts.
TCU Horned Frogs
After a title-game appearance last year, TCU lost QB Max Duggan along with top two RBs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado and top three WRs Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber and Derius Davis. However, they hit the portal hard adding Alabama transfers RB Trey Sanders and WR JoJo Earle and Oklahoma State transfer JP Richardson. QB Chandler Morris will now have the keys to the offense with a lot of talent, but also a lot of turnover.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears, led by returning RB Richard Reese, will look to win games with their slow pace and defensive play, but in order to do so they need their defense to play at a top level. QB Blake Shapen was okay as a passer at times last year, but this team will likely continue to rely on their ground game offensively.
UCF Golden Knights
UCF is a new team on the block, led by experienced head coach Gus Malzahn. It will be interesting to see if there are any learning curves with this football team adjusting to new competition. Their offense is led by QB John Rhys Plumlee who has been able to do it all for this team with his passing and rushing production. WR Javon Baker and RB RJ Harvey are two players to keep an eye on for this team offensively. Harvey was the RB2 on this team in terms of volume last year, but was by far their most productive backfield option as he averaging 6.8 YPC.
Kansas Jayhawks
I talked about Kansas quite a bit earlier in this article, but this team has a ton to be excited about offensively with QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal, but they will need improvements defensively if they want to find themselves among the best teams in the conference.
Other Key Players
I would be remised not to mention a couple of my favorite players from a DFS perspective in this conference, which will be especially important for DFS purposes early in the year. Houston WR Matthew Golden will have the WR1 in this offense now, and while he likely won’t put up Tank Dell type numbers, this young highly-rated WR had nearly 600 yards and 7 TDs on less than 60 targets last season, the ceiling is high with 80+ targets being possible for Golden this year. West Virginia RB CJ Donaldson is also another name with a lot of interest for me this year, especially early in the season, where after their Week 1 matchup against Penn State, we might have some games where the Mountaineers are expected to keep the game close, or even win. Donaldson was just third on the team in carries this year with just 87 but was by far their best RB, he averaged 6 YPC and led the team with 8 TDs. I am hoping that West Virginia recognizes what they have and features Donaldson in this offense. Lastly, Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon could also be in for a big year as this teams leading rusher with 2022 starter Dom Richardson departing. Gordon averaged 5 YPC last season, and is a big bodied back who can easily fit the bell cow role.
Big 12 Predictions & Betting Picks
I already mentioned my pick to win the conference is Michigan at +165, but let’s dive into a few other picks I like within the Big 10 for this upcoming season:
- Texas OVER 9.5 Wins
- Kansas OVER 5.5 Wins
- Texas (+7, -115) vs. Alabama (Week 2)
Texas OVER 9.5 Wins.
Texas has a real shot at going undefeated this season. I think they can go into Tuscaloosa in Week 2 and beat Alabama, and after that the only other opponent that they could potentially not be a heavy favorite against would be Oklahoma. Even if they lose both of those games, they can still go over on this total.
Kansas OVER 5.5 Wins
I really don’t want it to seem like I am giving Kansas all of this hype, but 5.5 wins is a fairly low number here. The team won six games last year and had to play without their starting QB for nearly half their games as well. They should have two fairly easy wins in their non-conference schedule against Nevada and Missouri State, they could also very easily beat Illinois at home in week 2.
Texas (+7, -115) vs. Alabama (Week 2)
Texas has a ton of well-deserved hype this year, and they are one of my favorite teams to back, especially early in the year. Sure, they lost Bijan Robinson and he will be difficult to replace, but Quinn Ewers gets another year under his belt and has excellent weapons on the outside to utilize. Not to mention that the RBs for Texas might not be Bijan Robinson, but they will still be quite good, whether is 5-star true freshman CJ Baxter or Jonathan Brooks (who averaged 6.6 YPC and scored 5 times in limited work last year). Alabama could struggle early in the season as they find their identity, they are likely to have a three-way QB battle this offseason that could come down to the wire, which might leave the Crimson Tide with an adjustment period.
The Big 12 isn’t quite getting the same amount of respect as conferences like the Big 10 and SEC. Still, one thing is for certain, this conference will definitely produce high levels of entertainment for us from a DFS/Betting perspective this season.