Super Bowl 60 MVP Odds, Predictions, and Pick
Super Bowl 60 MVP Odds: Darnold favored to win award
(SEA) Sam Darnold: +115, Quarterback
(NE) Drake Maye: +240, Quarterback
(SEA) Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +550, Wide Receiver
(SEA) Kenneth Walker: +800, Running Back
(NE) Rhamondre Stevenson: +2800, Running Back
(SEA) Rashid Shaheed: +3000, Wide Receiver
(NE) Stefon Diggs: +5000, Wide Receiver
(NE) Marcus Jones: +6000, Cornerback
(NE) TreVeyon Henderson: +7500, Running Back
(SEA) Nick Emmanwori: +7500, Safety
On Sunday, Drake Maye and the Patriots will meet Sam Darnold and the Seahawks in Santa Clara, California for Super Bowl LX. Kickoff is set for 6:30 PM ET on NBC and Peacock.
As of this writing, the NFL odds have Darnold (+115) as the most likely candidate to win the Super Bowl LX MVP award, followed by Maye (+240), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+550), and Kenneth Walker II (+800) as the only other players shorter than +2800.
Below, we take a look at Darnold, Maye, and a few longshots to see which players could be worth an investment in this market ahead of the NFL’s biggest game of the season.
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Past Super Bowl MVP Winners
(PHI) Jalen Hurts, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(LAR) Cooper Kupp, Wide Receiver
(TB) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(KC) Patrick Mahomes, Quarterback
(NE) Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver
(PHI) Nick Foles, Quarterback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(DEN) Von Miller, Linebacker
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(SEA) Malcolm Smith, Linebacker
(BAL) Joe Flacco, Quarterback
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(GB) Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback
(NO) Drew Brees, Quarterback
(PIT) Santonio Holmes, Wide Receiver
(NYG) Eli Manning, Quarterback
(IND) Peyton Manning, Quarterback
(PIT) Hines Ward, Wide Receiver
(NE) Deion Branch, Wide Receiver
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
(TB) Dexter Jackson, Cornerback
(NE) Tom Brady, Quarterback
History of Super Bowl MVP Winners: By Position
In the last 24 years, a quarterback has won Super Bowl MVP 16 times (66.7%). A wide receiver has earned the honors on 5 occasions (20.8%). A defensive player has won the award 3 times in that span (12.5%).
Roll the dice on a defensive player?
It’s exceedingly rare that a defensive player earns Super Bowl MVP honors, but the potential payout on those outlier events makes it worthwhile to investigate this market each year. Ahead of kickoff in Super Bowl LX, no defensive player has odds shorter than +6000, meaning that even a small wager could result in a few hundred dollars of profit if the correct player is chosen.
So what does a defensive player need to do to deliver an award-winning performance in the Super Bowl?
First and foremost, they probably need the game to be relatively low scoring, which is a collective effort. When Von Miller took home MVP honors in Super Bowl L, the Broncos held the Panthers to 10 points. Miller had 2.5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 1 pass deflection in that game, but him winning the award had as much to do with his own stat line as it did with the underwhelming numbers of his quarterback, Peyton Manning: 13 completions, 141 passing yards, 0 touchdowns.
Similarly, in Super Bowl XLVIII, Malcolm Smith benefited from his quarterback, Russell Wilson, throwing for only 206 passing yards. In that game, the Seahawks defense held the Broncos to only 8 points. Smith had a defensive touchdown, led Seattle with 10 tackles, and added a fumble recovery.
Defensive touchdowns are often unpredictable, but the circumstances that could lead to such an event are slightly less random. Turnover probability is higher when a defense can pressure the quarterback, leading to a higher probability of a bad throw being forced into tight coverage or a potential strip sack.
This year, those conditions certainly exist for both teams. New England’s pass rush this postseason has been relentless. Darnold had a league-high 8 interceptions when under pressure during the regular season. CB Christian Gonzalez (+10000) and CB Carlton Davis (+25000) could be worth a sprinkle as New England’s top two cornerbacks.
On the other side of this matchup, the left side of New England’s offensive line has been a major pain point during the postseason. Maye has been sacked 5 times in each of the team’s 3 playoff games, as a result. EDGE DeMarcus Lawrence (+9000), DT Leonard Williams (+10000), and DT Byron Murphy II (+15000) have consistently been Seattle’s best pass rushers this season. If there is a strip sack to be had, it’s more than likely going to come from one of them.
If you think New England pulls an upset, Gonzalez or Davis might be a big reason for such an outcome. If you think Seattle gets the job done on the backs of their defense, it could make sense to invest in one of the big men up front to steal the show.
Longshot wide receiver
If there was ever a year for a wide receiver to win Super Bowl MVP honors, it’s this year, with WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba taking the field.
When wide receivers win this award, they usually do so because they finish the game with well over 100 receiving yards, find the end zone multiple times, or both.
During the regular season, Smith-Njigba had 6 games with at least 120 receiving yards. He had 2 games in which he scored multiple touchdowns. Then, in the NFC Championship game, Smith-Njigba had 10 receptions for 153 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. In that game, Smith-Njigba had 12 targets – twice as many as any other Seattle pass-catcher.
He’s the clear focal point of the Seahawks passing game and has proven over and over again this season to be matchup-proof. Sam Darnold doesn’t carry the same brand recognition as a Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady either, which could further open the door for JSN to win Super Bowl MVP if he can put together another strong performance.
Conservative Route
Of course, the least sexy Super Bowl MVP wager is the one that involves a quarterback. The prices aren’t as enticing as betting on a longshot at another position, but the overwhelming likelihood of a quarterback winning this award often makes it a +EV wager.
Last year, for example, we had Jalen Hurts (+350) as our “conservative route” option in this article. He went 17-of-22 and had 3 total touchdowns in a high-scoring affair en route to winning the award.
This year, Drake Maye is the best quarterback to invest in for Super Bowl MVP honors. Unlike Darnold, Maye faces little competition, in terms of brand appeal, from his teammates. The Patriots lack a clear WR1, and even their running back situation is a little bit murky from week to week. Absent a defensive player making a heroic play at the right time, Maye will almost certainly be the Super Bowl MVP if the Patriots can deliver an upset in Santa Clara.
At +240, this is good value for anyone who likes New England’s chances of winning the game.
- PICK: Drake Maye to win Super Bowl LX MVP (+240, DraftKings)
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