Bills vs. Dolphins Player Props: Three Predictions for Thursday Night Football
What can we expect on Thursday from Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Keon Coleman? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Thursday, September 12, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
Week 2 of the NFL regular season begins on Thursday, with a highly anticipated AFC East battle between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Both teams came from behind in their season opener to get a win in front of their home fans and will be playing for sole possession of 1st place in the division in this matchup.
There are plenty of stars scheduled to take the field tonight, including Josh Allen, Keon Coleman, Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and more. Of course, that means plenty of options for bettors to evaluate ahead of the action!
Kickoff is set for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Bills at Dolphins, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Thursday evening!
Bills vs. Dolphins – NFL Player Props
- Tyreek Hill Over/Under 6.5 Receptions
- Jaylen Waddle Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
- Keon Coleman Over/Under 42.5 Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill OVER 6.5 Receptions (-130, FanDuel)
Buffalo’s starting slot cornerback, Taron Johnson, will not play on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 due to a forearm injury. He played an NFL-high 474 coverage snaps in the slot in 2023. Among 74 players who logged 100+ coverage snaps in the slot last season, Johnson allowed the 11th-fewest yards per snap.
After Johnson left the game in Week 1 against the Cardinals, Cam Lewis replaced Johnson in the slot, allowing 4 receptions on only 18 snaps as the team’s primary slot defender. Tyreek Hill led all Miami receivers with 17 offensive snaps in the slot in the team’s season opener against the Jaguars. Hill also led all Miami players in snaps from the slot in 2023, among players with at least 250 receiving yards.
Hill has cleared this market number in 5 of his last 7 meetings against Buffalo and has 7+ receptions in 7 of his last 9 home games. Primetime contests bring some added variance, especially on a short week, but this is a very reasonable line for a player who averaged 7.4 receptions per game in 2023. Lewis played 90% of Buffalo’s defensive snaps in Week 1, so there should be plenty of opportunities for him to get beat in coverage.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 4.5 Receptions (-125, BetMGM)
In 14 games during the 2023 regular season, Waddle had 72 receptions, which translates to 5.1 receptions per game. In Week 1 this season, Waddle managed 5 receptions, despite being forced to briefly leave the game to get evaluated for a concussion. The net result was only 5 targets. In his final 11 regular season games in 2023, Waddle had 8 games with 8+ targets, so there should be more volume for him most weeks.
In his last 20 games receiving 8+ targets, he’s had 5+ receptions 18 times. He’s 16-for-20 to the over at this market number in games with 7+ targets and 14-for-20 in games with 6+ targets. Considering that Miami’s running back room is banged up heading into this game, it wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see Waddle be frequently targeted. This is a great price for him to finish with 5+ receptions.
Keon Coleman OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-113, FanDuel)
Coleman didn’t consistently generate much separation against man coverage in Week 1 against the Cardinals, but the good news for him is that the Dolphins played very little man coverage against the Jaguars in their season opener. Against Arizona, Coleman led all Buffalo receivers with 31 snaps against zone coverage and tied for the team lead in targets against zone coverage. He ran more routes than any other Buffalo pass catcher and figures to be on the field plenty again on Thursday. This profiles as a good matchup for Coleman.
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