Primetime Parlay: Bills vs. Jets Same Game Parlay Picks
Last year, ScoresAndOdds’ ParlayIQ tool helped us create a variety of fun same-game parlay tickets throughout the NFL season. Through simulations, the tool examines the potential value various betting lines offer on sports betting sites. Along with the simulation, we will examine stats, roster news, trends, player props, and betting odds across sports betting sites to find the best price for our same-game parlay ticket. For this article, we build a Monday Night Football same-game parlay for the Buffalo Bills versus the New York Jets.
After an exciting opening Sunday to the NFL season, the Jets host the Bills in an immediately pivotal division rivalry game. The Bills continue to look for that elusive bid to the Super Bowl. The Jets thrust themselves into playoff consideration after making the move for Aaron Rodgers to pilot the offense. The addition of Dalvin Cook makes one thing clear — the Jets are going for broke. Will a magical season begin with one of the bigger wins in Jets’ history or will the Bills play spoiler? We will start with odds and injury news but let’s work on a fun ticket to sweat along with tonight’s primetime matchup.
Bills vs. Jets Same Game Parlay
At the time of this writing, FanDuel Sportsbook off the Jets to sports bettors as two-point home underdogs. The implied game total is 45.5 with no juice on either side. The Jets lead the way with spread bets relative to tickets (58%), but only 46% of the betting handle has chosen the same side per SAO. A startling 91% of money bet on the total sides with the under, which explains the two-point shift since opening.
The injury report looks pretty clean with both teams coming into the game relatively healthy. Micah Hyde will play for the Bills. With regard to playing time, reports suggest that Dalvin Cook should get the bulk of the carries early in the season as the Jets look to ease back Breece Hall. With both running backs extremely dynamic, the Jets will likely end up in some form of timeshare when both backs are healthy.
Of course, commentary on the Jet offense from 2022 feels silly given that New York will feature an actual quarterback for the first time in a long time. Aaron Rodgers legitimizes an offense filled with playmakers across the board — most notably last season’s offensive rookie of the year, Garrett Wilson. Rodgers will hopefully mask the Jets’ biggest weakness — a very leaky offensive line.
For the Bills, it is Super Bowl or bust. Anything short of winning the AFC will look like a disappointment with the talent Buffalo possesses on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Buffalo said goodbye to Devin Singletary during the offseason — paving the way for James Cook to see an expanded role. The Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid and might shift to more two tight end sets to feature the playmaking big game.
On defense, the Jets and Bills finished amongst the league leaders in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Jets’ defense is buoyed by strong play up front but mostly by second-year sensation, Sauce Gardner. Gardner is the type of cornerback that could potentially take a receiving option away. Stefon Diggs went without a touchdown against the Jets last season but was able to accrue 93 yards in the first contest. In the second matchup, Diggs struggled with only 37 receiving yards.
The Bills possessed a more middle-of-the-road defense with respect to the rushing game, but the Jets were in the top ten again — only allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt. That said, we cannot forget how potent the Bills’ offense can be. Last season, the Bills finished just behind the Chiefs in yards per play and third in points per game. The Jets’ defense is considered a contender for best in the league but will be tested mightily at home this evening.
The game should bring plenty of excitement and could be a great watch without a sweat. Yet, who are we kidding? Let’s build a fun ticket to sweat along with what should be a great game.
Same Game Parlay Picks for MNF
Dalvin Cook Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
While the storyline for tonight’s game will surely be Josh Allen versus Aaron Rodgers, I think the path of least resistance for the Jets will exist in the run game. The Bills’ pass defense was excellent last year, and the Jets’ offensive line is still a big concern. While I am confident that Aaron Rodgers will help that offensive line because of his experience and quick passing ability, the Jets should try to grind this game down to keep Josh Allen off the field.
ParlayIQ likes this outcome in more than 50% of the simulations for this contest. The presence of Breece Hall might eat into Cook’s projection, but given the news about the workload, I anticipate Cook will get fed.
Dawson Knox Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
With Sauce Gardner patrolling the sidelines and potentially locking into Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen will need to find additional outlets in the passing game.
With the Jets’ defense potentially keeping Allen at bay or maybe even under extreme duress, Allen will need to find quick valves for safety. While Dalton Kincaid received much of the spotlight in fantasy circles this offseason, Dawson Knox is still a reliable target. Knox has been a legitimate threat in the short passing game but also down the field throughout his tenure with Josh Allen.
While Kincaid will eat into his work, I am not sure I am ready to wipe Knox out of the box score. This prop ended up occurring in 70% of our simulations of this game. That is enough to convince me.
Garrett Wilson Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
Similar to the rationale associated with Dalvin Cook exceeding his rushing prop, I think I want to take a stand on Garrett Wilson staying under his receiving total.
First, Wilson seems in line for a big season. While I do think that is true, we need to remember how effective this pass defense has been over the years. Further, just because the Jets have Aaron Rodgers under center doesn’t necessarily mean they will abandon their identity. Even Aaron Rodgers handed the ball off to his two capable backs in Green Bay. Built similarly in New York, Wilson doesn’t have to have a monster game for the Jets to be successful.
I think the recipe for defeating the Bills is to bottle Josh Allen up and keep him off the field. The running game offers the easiest path to that outcome.
James Cook Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Sticking with the ground game, sort of, we move over to the Buffalo side. ParlayIQ and I seem to love shifty running backs and their receiving overs. What can I say? I think the Bills will need to be creative with how they move the ball against a stalwart defense in New York. Dawson Knox, secondary receiving options, and running backs seem to be likely options for Allen to escape the pressure or go with the football when his wide receivers are stuck.
Let’s give this a go. This is a big game for the Jets and us fans, but there is no harm in adding some sprinkles to a delicious football sundae on Monday night. Good luck!
Bills vs. Jets Parlay Odds
- Dalvin Cook Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
- Dawson Knox Over 18.5 Receiving Yards
- Garrett Wilson Under 69.5 Receiving Yards
- James Cook Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Here are the odds ParlayIQ recommends for our MNF ticket:
FanDuel Sportsbook prices our parlay as such:
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Parlay Odds: +1206
Risk: 1/2 unit to win 6.03 units
Good luck with all of your bets and plays this evening. Share your parlays with me on Twitter. First touchdown scorers? Touchdowns? DFS lineups? Player props? Thanks for reading.