Bills vs. Ravens Player Props: Three Predictions for Sunday Night Football
What can we expect on Sunday from Zay Flowers and Josh Allen? Follow along as our NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday, September 29, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more football props, at ScoresandOdds.
NFL fans will be treated to a potential AFC playoff preview on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens hosting Josh Allen and the undefeated Buffalo Bills. This is one of the more highly anticipated matchups of the young season, with plenty of star players scheduled to take the field for both teams.
Kickoff is set for 8:20pm ET on NBC.
If looking to wager on the player prop market for Bills vs. Ravens, we have 3 prop leans to consider for Sunday evening!
Bills vs. Ravens – NFL Player Props
- Zay Flowers Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
- Josh Allen Over/Under 227.5 Passing Yards
- Josh Allen Over/Under 0.5 Touchdowns
Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (-140, FanDuel)
Zay Flowers only had 3 receptions on 4 targets in Week 3, but that was more of a function of game script than anything else. The Ravens led 28-6 at the end of the 3rd quarter and attempted only 15 passes for the afternoon. In his previous 2 games, Flowers had 7 receptions on 11 targets and then 6 receptions on 10 targets.
Flowers is clearly the top option in Baltimore’s aerial attack, with a team-leading 16 receptions, 25 targets, and 148 receiving yards this season. He gets a good matchup in the slot this evening against backup CB Cam Lewis. Flowers should have more than his fair share of opportunities tonight, making this a worthwhile risk.
Josh Allen OVER 227.5 Passing Yards (-115, Bally)
Last year, Baltimore had one of the most formidable defenses in the NFL. That simply hasn’t been the case to begin 2024. Through 3 weeks, their pass defense ranks 27th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. The Ravens have allowed 291 passing yards to Patrick Mahomes, 276 passing yards to Gardner Minshew and 379 passing yards to Dak Prescott during that stretch.
Josh Allen has been playing extremely efficient football of late, leading all qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and success rate this fall. He’s eclipsed this market number in 10 of his last 17 road contests overall and should have every opportunity to improve upon that hit rate on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
Josh Allen OVER 0.5 Touchdowns (+130, FanDuel)
Josh Allen hasn’t found the end zone in either of the last 2 weeks with his legs, but that likely had more to do with game script than anything else. Allen had only 2 rush attempts in Week 2 in a 21-point victory over the Dolphins. He similarly stopped running the football in the second half of a blowout victory over the Jaguars in Week 3.
Allen has relatively stark splits as a rusher depending on the competitiveness of the game. Since the beginning of 2023, Allen has scored a touchdown on the ground in 11 of 13 games in which the game was decided by a single score. In contrast, he’s scored with his legs in only 2 of 5 games in which the margin of victory was 7+ points during that same time period.
Assuming Buffalo continues to move the ball well in Week 4, there should be goal line opportunities for Allen in this contest. Recent history tells us that he’s probably finding pay dirt this evening.
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