NBA Play-in Game: Blazers vs. Grizzlies Betting Odds & Picks
The NBA made its highly-anticipated return on July 30. Two weeks and 88 games later, the 2020 NBA playoffs and seeding are set — well, sort of.
On Saturday, the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies will play an unprecedented NBA play-in game, airing on ABC at 2:30 PM, the winner rewarded a matchup with the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers in Round 1 of the playoffs.
If you’re just now tuning in and wondering why exactly the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies are facing off in a wild-card series of sorts, let us briefly catch you up to speed.
NBA Betting Odds for Today
NBA Play-In Game: How We Got Here
The NBA invited 22 teams to Orlando to play eight games each, and added an extra spot setting up potential a “play-in” series for ninth place teams within four games if the 8-seed in their respective conference. In this new format, the 8-seed needs only to win one game while 9-seed must win two.
Entering the bubble with a 29-37 record and No. 9 in the Western Conference, the Blazers went 6-2 in their eight games, swapping spots with an injury-riddled Grizzlies squad led by the presumed Rookie of the Year, Ja Morant.
Both the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers had to fight to get to this point. Before Thursday’s games, four teams in the Western Conference—Portland, Memphis, San Antonio, and Phoenix—still had a chance to extend their Disney World “vacation” at least into the weekend.
Ending an absurd 22-season playoff streak, the Spurs playoff hopes were gone before their 9PM ET tip-off with the Utah Jazz Thursday night, after the Suns and Grizzlies won Thursday afternoon.
The Suns crushed the Dallas Mavericks to complete a perfect 8-0 record, but the Suns’ fairytale run came to a close when Memphis and Portland beat Milwaukee and Brooklyn, respectively.
It’s worth noting the Grizzlies, who needed a win to clinch their spot, were aided by a one-game suspension handed to Giannis Antetokounmpo for a headbutt against the Wizards’ MO Wagner.
Though the Suns and Grizzlies each finished with a 34-39 record, the Grizzlies get to stick around thanks to their 3-1 head-to-head record.
So that’s how we got here. Here’s what you need to know before betting on Saturday’s play-in game between the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers.
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Betting Odds
Online sports betting sites sites opened the Trail Blazers as 7-point favorites and a game total of 233.5.
Early money appears to have come in on the Grizzlies, as the line dropped a point to Blazers -6.
The Trail Blazers have gone 5-2-1 ATS so far inside the bubble, while the Grizzlies have lost money for their backers going 2-6 ATS.
Attacking the point total is an interesting endeavor in this play-in matchup. The Over hit in seven of eight games for the Blazers but only twice for the Grizzlies—more on the Over/Under in a bit.
In terms of the moneyline, i.e. betting on one of these two teams straight up, the Blazers are -250 favorites (risk $25 to win $10) and the Grizzlies are +210 (risk $10 to win $21) in this game.
Here are their implied odds compared to a few projection systems:
NBA Betting Odds
Blazers (-250 at DraftKings) 71%
Grizzlies (+210 at Fanduel ) 32.3%
ESPN Basketball Power Index
Blazers 86%
Grizzlies 14%
FiveThirtyEight
Blazers 73%
Grizzlies 27%
By both measures, there’s at least a little bit of value betting on the Blazers. But remember, these projections are based on stats from the entire season, and this is anything but a typical season.
Portland Trail Blazers
If you haven’t seen it you’ve definitely heard about Damian Lillard ‘s dominance. Lillard is set to be named Bubble MVP after averaging 37.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 9.6 assists and 1.4 steals per game since the restart. Lillard has a 123.8 offensive rating and 67.7 true-shooting percentage during this span.
Lillard combined for 154 points in the Blazers’ last three games, including a 61-point performance, which made him the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to drop 60 points three times in a season. The 154 points were the most points scored by a player in the final three games of a regular season in NBA history.
Portland needed every basket from Lillard they could get to make the play-in game, winning each of their final three games by fewer than three points. Considering their playoff lives were on the line yet the Nets, Mavericks and Sixers lacked that same desperation should give us pause before betting the Blazers moneyline or spread with any sort of confidence.
While Lillard is certainly the MVP of the bubble, the Trail Blazers likely wouldn’t have made it this far if it were not for the timely return of their center, Jusuf Nurkic.
Nurkic suffered compound fractures in his left leg toward the end of the 2019 season and wasn’t expect to take the court in 2020 prior to the season’s abrupt suspension and subsequent four-month hiatus.
The center’s presence has been felt by both the Blazers and their opponents
Nurkic is averaging 17.6 points, 10.3 rebounds and four assists since returning. That makes him the only player to average at least 15 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block and 1 steal per game in the bubble.
With Nurkic now in the starting lineup, the Blazers, who were already tied for the ninth-best offense in the league, have had the best offense of the 22 teams in Orlando.
The Blazers lead in offensive efficiency, scoring 122.5 points per 100 possessions — over 3 points more than the next closest team left in the bubble.
Their defense has not been so great, though, and some of this can be attributed to Nurkic, who struggles mightily against pick-and-roll offenses. Portland was already bad on the defensive end, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency among teams.
In the bubble alone, Portland is allowing 120.4 points per every 100 possessions, which has kept their games close despite Lillard, Nurkic, C.J. McCollum and Carmelo Anthony lighting up the scoreboard.
Memphis Grizzlies
While the bubble gave Portland a welcomed addition in Nurkic, the bubble has resulted in a trio of injures for Memphis.
First losing Justice Winslow to a hip injury during an intra-squad scrimmage in July, the Grizzlies’ bad luck continued with injuries to Tyus Jones and Jaren Jackson.
Winslow and Jackson are out for the remainder of the playoffs but Jones was seen at practice on Friday after missing eight games thus far.
Averaging 7.4 ppg and 4.4 apg, Jones won’t make a huge difference if he’s active on Saturday but the Grizzlies are in need of a deeper bench.
Opposite of Portland again, the Grizzlies were only 2-6 in the bubble and averaged only 112 ppg — 17th out of the 22 teams.
NBA Betting Picks: Grizzlies +6, Over 232.5
Lillard and the Blazers will probably win this game but their defense is simply too much of a liability to bet on them against the spread or on the Under.
This game, like the ones before it, will come down to the wire for the Blazers. As they’ve shown throughout the restart, and particularly in their last three outings, Portland’s defense can’t stop anyone, whether playing against starters or reserves.
The Grizzlies and Blazers actually faced off in their first game in Orlando. The Blazers came out ahead 140-135.
We might not see scoring to that extent this time, but all signs point toward another fast-paced shootout with little defense played.
Take the points and the Over.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images