2023 BMW Championship Golf Betting Tips: Olympia Fields CC Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-08-15 15:16:11

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 BMW Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on PGA DFS Pick’em entries this week!

The penultimate event on the PGA Tour schedule will take place in Illinois this weekend as Olympia Fields Country Club hosts the BMW Championship. The no-cut field features the top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. Only thirty golfers will play at East Lake next week which means that the season ends for 20 men. Jon Rahm famously won the only PGA tour event at this venue in 2020 with a walk-off bomb putt in a playoff with Dustin Johnson. Will Olympia Fields offer more magic? Let’s start with betting odds and then move to a preview of the course.

2023 BMW Championship at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – August 15th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the BMW Championship:

• 2022 – Patrick Cantlay (-14)
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-27)
• 2020 – Jon Rahm (-4)
• 2019 – Justin Thomas (-25)
• 2018 – Keegan Bradley (-20)
• 2017 – Marc Leishman (-23)
• 2016 – Dustin Johnson (-23)

Our posted odds do not cover the entire field but with only 50 players in the mix, most of the top dogs are covered. The FedEx Cup Standings are worth a look to see which players are fighting for a trip to East Lake and the Tour Championship. Further, players will be very motivated with every shot considering the format of the Tour Championship having changed years ago. Players will start at a certain mark below par based on their standing in the field after this event.

Jon Rahm is the most noteworthy on our list of winners because in 2020 the event was hosted at Olympia Fields. The only PGA Tour event at the venue since 2003 occurred during the COVID era in golf — spectators were far fewer. While the course has not changed in layout for this event, the views could and should be different given all of the grandstands at the event. Rahm famously won the vent in a playoff with Dustin Johnson, sinking a walk-off 66-foot putt to best the now-LIV superstar.

Patrick Cantlay boasts back-to-back championships at this event but the venue will pose a far greater test as evidenced by winning scores. That is not to say that Cantlay isn’t in contention. At 10/1, Cantlay nearly won last weekend before hitting it in a water hazard in his playoff with the white-hot Lucas Glover. A former FedEx Cup champion, Cantlay thrives in this format and will look to improve his standing for the Tour Championship this week.

Of the 20 golfers outside of the Top 30, Cameron Young and Hideki Matsuyama likely headline the list. Young has not delivered on what most would have thought would be a breakout season on tour while Matsuyama has been on quite the run. His back-nine display last week on Sunday kept his playoff hopes alive. Both men will need a strong finish to join the top 30. Matsuyama will make plenty of sense as a golfer with a pedigree for handling the stiffest tests on tour.

Finally, I’d be a fool to not mention Lucas Glover. Glover’s back-to-back victories have been a joy to watch. With talks about Ryder Cup candidacy now in play and Glover looking to check boxes off of his career bucket list, how will he play this week? Locked into a spot at East Lake, can Glover continue this illustrious run?

Let’s preview Olympia Fields Country Club, the last true test on the tour schedule.

2023 BMW Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Olympia Fields CC (North)
• Date: August 17 – 20
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,366
• Greens: Bentgrass

In 2020, Olympia Fields proved to be as stiff a test to golfers as any major venue. Only four golfers finished under par for the week with Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm landing in the playoff at -4. Rahm battled back from an eight-stroke deficit, needing a 64 on Sunday to make the playoff. The rest of course was history, with Rahm exploding in ceremony after his 66-foot putt found the cup and seemingly jump-started his ascendency to the world’s elite.

At 7,366 yards, Olympia Fields is relatively long for a Par 70. Lined with bentgrass, the course features four-inch rough and will demand a lot from players’ long irons throughout the week. The greens are firm and fast. We can expect another tough test in Chicago as the layout hasn’t changed. Unlike the recent festivals of birdies we’ve seen on tour, we will need to filter this field for players that excel in the toughest conditions.

The breakdown of the course is traditional with two Par 5’s. The Par 5’s are the easiest holes on the course and will be the eight best opportunities the players have to make birdies to likely offset the trouble they find lurking. With no cut, Rahm proved in 2020 that anyone is in the mix until the final hole. Over the last 100 measured rounds, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, and Matt Fitzpatrick lead the field in total strokes gained on courses with difficult scoring relative to par.

The Par 3, 13th hole ranked third in birdie rate in 2020, followed by three of the shorter par 4’s. In all, only six holes featured birdie rates above 15%. Scoring is going to be difficult. While we will surely include our typical tee-to-green metrics, bogey avoidance and scrambling should be considered at Olympia Fields.

The near 500-yard closing Par 4 18th hole represents the stiffest test on the course. Truly befitting of a closing hole, the 18th resulted in 30% birdies in 2020. No lead will be safe down the stretch.

We will focus on SG T2G, Approach, OTT, putting (bentgrass), bogey avoidance, difficult courses, and around-the-green play. Let’s highlight a few names vying for some much-needed points at Olympia Fields.

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Patrick Cantlay +1000

Fully immersed in the playoffs, how do we ignore Patrick Cantlay? Surely difficult to avoid watching him on TV as his pre-shot routine monopolizes so much time, Cantlay is highly likely to be in the mix at an event that will require the best in all facets of the game. In 2020, Cantlay came in 12th place despite an awful week with his irons — losing nearly five strokes on approach. Typically gaining on the field, we shouldn’t anticipate the back-to-back BMW Champion to bleed that many strokes from the fairway.

At a slight discount from Rory and Scottie Scheffler, Cantlay is worth a shout when you consider a few things. Rory continues to play incredible golf while struggling to close a victory at a truly tough venue. Scottie Scheffler, at this point, just cannot putt. At some point that switch will flip and Scottie is going to win but I need to see it. If I am starting my card at the top of the board, Cantlay’s FedEx Cup resume is tough to ignore given his recent form.

Hideki Matsuyama +3300

While Hideki Matsuyama is on the outside looking into the Tour Championship at the moment, his pedigree is difficult to ignore. His recent form is great including his masterful performance on the back nine last weekend. Matsuyama was one of the only four players to finish under par at Olympia Fields in 2020. Given his history at the toughest venues, this makes complete sense.

Over the last 100 rounds, Matsuyama is 10th in total strokes gained at difficult courses. If we include all measured rounds, Mastuyama’s 1.4 strokes gained per round is tied for fourth in the field with Viktor Hovland. Strong off the tee and precise on approach, Matsuyama needs to overcome putting woes to factor in this weekend.

Given his form, 33-1 feels like a great price to buy.

Matt Fitzpatrick +5000

Not that much further down the aforementioned strokes gained list for difficult courses, we will find Matt Fitzpatrick. After winning his first major in 2022, Fitzpatrick has had a bit of a down year in 2023 — if you consider one tournament away from the Tour Championship a down year.

Fitzpatrick is currently in 40th in the standings and needs to have a great week to make it back to Atlanta. Given his history on difficult courses and difficult major venues, Fitzpatrick is a very sensible outright stab at 50/1. Despite his recent woes, Fitzpatrick still ranks 10th in SG: Total over his last 36 rounds. Perhaps finding some form, a shift to a more challenging venue should only hope the young Englishman.

At 50/1 in a stacked field, Fitzpatrick feels like a place to turn for value if you don’t want to invest heavily this week.

Wyndham Clark +5000

Already assured a spot at East Lake, Wyndham Clark will look to bounce back after a rough week at the St. Jude Championship. With two enormous victories this season, the U.S. Open Champion will look to vault back into the winner’s circle ahead of the Tour Championship.

Clark currently sits in 8th in the standings. A big week is obviously great for his wallet but will only help his chances next weekend. With every stroke translating directly to strokes next week, Clark has the game for Olympia Fields. His OTT game is great and accompanies a 12th ranking in SG: ARG and a 9th ranking in SG: Putting.

At a more challenging venue, Clark’s length and short game should play well. While we don’t have course history to rely on, Clark’s form is undeniable this season. At 50/1, he is worth a dart.

_Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.

Image Credit: Getty Images