2024 BMW Championship Betting Tips: Golf Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-08-21 02:31:51

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus for PGA Pick’em today!

The PGA TOUR cut the remaining field to 50 players at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Hideki Matsuyama rescued victory from the jaws of defeat, while Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele continued their historic form. Twenty players will be eliminated after the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club. Let’s preview the course and the field before outlining our golf betting picks.

BMW Championship Odds

At the time of this writing – August 20th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are recent winners of The BMW Championship:

• 2023 – Viktor Hovland (-17)
• 2022 – Patrick Cantlay (-14)
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-27)
• 2020 – Jon Rahm (-4)
• 2019 – Justin Thomas (-25)
• 2018 – Keegan Bradley (-20)

The BMW Championship rotates every year. The only information to glean from the history of this event is players who excel under pressure. Plenty is on the line with this event preceding the TOUR Championship, as players look to bank as many strokes as they can before East Lake.

Patrick Cantlay has two victories at the BMW Championship, but Castle Pines is completely different than the previous courses. The course has not hosted an event since the International Tournament in 2006. This is the first standard PGA TOUR stroke play event played in Colorado.

The top 70 players in the FedExCup standings were cut to 50 after St. Jude last week. Every qualified member in the top 25 of the OWGR on the PGA TOUR will play this week.
For a full view of the field and were players stand with points, check out the FedExCup standings.

The BMW Championship Betting Tips & Preview

• Course: Castle Pines GC
• Date: August 22 – 25
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 8,130
• Greens: Bentgrass-Poa

Castle Pines Golf Club will debut on the PGA TOUR this week. Designed in 1981 by Jack Nicklaus, Castle Pines is a modern course with hopes of hosting a major event one day. The 8,130 yards of length will be a record for PGA TOUR courses, but due to intense elevation, it will play nowhere near that long. If we dock 10% of distance due to elevation, the course should play closer to 7,300 yards — more typical for a Par 72 course on TOUR. The closest comp course on the PGA TOUR is the Tahoe Mountain Club, home of the Barracuda Championship. The Stableford-scored event has seen a mix of champions with a wide range of skills. Length will not be the be-all and end-all in the Colorado mountains but will surely help players who want to club down to find the fairway.

Ten holes will feature water, but the fairways will be very generous. Wayward drives can cause problems with 4” long rough waiting to penalize players who miss off the tee. We can’t focus too much energy on the length of holes since they won’t play the length on the scorecard. Instead, as usual, we will emphasize SG: Approach, T2G, and Ball Striking. SG: OTT will help and distance won’t hurt. With only 50 players in a no-cut event, the primary focus will be on recent form.

The entire course is composed of a bentgrass-poa mix, and the greens should be pretty fast. Putting and approach play were the difference at the FedEx St. Jude, and I would anticipate the same to be true this week. If we are looking to cull out an outright victor, I want to emphasize players producing the most opportunities and not as much on play around the green or scrambling. With no course history, I think those are the skills to focus on.

Collin Morikawa plays at the Summit Club as his home course. Wyndham Clark is from Colorado and has played well of late. Tony Finau is from Utah and should be accustomed to elevation changes. That said, we live in Xander’s and Scottie’s world right now. With only 48 players to contend with, it’s challenging to visualize a Sunday of golf where both players are not dancing around the top of the leaderboard.

So that raises the question, “How do we approach one of the last events on the PGA TOUR?” While hacking around golf courses in Ireland last week, I watched Aaron Rai capture another outright victory for us. Rai’s victory puts us at nearly 230 units for the season. We have some money to play with. Do we build a full card? Should we just load up on Scottie or Xander? Let’s make up our minds and build our golf betting card.

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The BMW Championship Golf Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all Strokes Gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 24 rounds on the PGA TOUR.

Wyndham Clark +2000 (bet365)

Wyndham Clark fell into the “never again” category earlier in the season. We included him on a few betting cards at a slightly elevated price, and he failed to show up. This week though, Clark is checking boxes and rounding into form just in time to play a course he should be familiar with.

From Colorado, Clark should be very accustomed to elevation change. His recent form — especially in PGA TOUR events — has been exceptional. We need to deal with Xander and Scottie, but Wyndham allows us to play a few golfers this week instead of just one horse. Since the season is drawing to a close, I will save Xander or Scottie for potential live betting during the weekend.

The reason we are going with a 20-1 price tag is that we will use the boost on bet365 and attach a 1-8 each-way bet to Clark this week. A T8 finish will guarantee profit with the upside for a victory.

Adam Scott +4000 (bet365)

Adam Scott will need a strong performance at the BMW Championship to extend his season for one more week. Scott has four T10 finishes over his last six starts at the BMW Championship. While the course changes, the pressure does not. Scott is on the outside looking in for the TOUR Championship at East Lake. However, with so many points at stake this week, Scott can make a big move with a high finish.

While his approach numbers are not excellent over his last 12 rounds, we always associate crisp ball striking with the Australian. Scott ranks fourth in total strokes gained over his last 12 rounds and eighth in putting. The putter has often been his undoing, but Scott comes into this event rolling the ball very well.

With his back against the wall, I like getting a discount on Scott with his each-way on bet365.

Eric Cole +7500 (bet365)

The final play on this week’s short card is Eric Cole. Cole is listed at 100-1 on most sports betting sites. We are going to bet Cole with his T8 each way, though. Therefore, we are going to stick with bet365.

Cole has struggled off the tee but continues to live off of a strong short game. He continues to make putts when they matter, and boy will he need every putt this week. Near the bottom of the field in FedExCup points, Cole will need a big performance to make it to East Lake.

We will include the each-way because Cole needs that top finish and hopes his recent form (8th in total strokes gained) can push him over the top.

2024 BMW Championship Betting Card

All bets include a 1-8 each-way bet for 1/5 the betting odds. The units listed in the chart would then be doubled.

One-and-Done Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

The BMW Championship Betting Units: 15.6

2024 Net Units: 229.75

Follow me on X at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with your wagers this week, and thanks for reading.

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