BMW Championship Odds: Golf Betting Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-08-17 12:53:37

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2022 BMW Championship. Use the PrizePicks promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Will Zalatoris finally broke through, winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship in a playoff versus Sepp Straka. Seemingly in position to win countless times in his career, Zalatoris pulled through to win his first title and much needed points headed into the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. With 70 in the field this week all vying for a spot at East Lake in Atlanta, we are sure to have a fun week at the BMW Championship. Let’s start with betting odds and the field.

BMW Championship Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – August 16th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are recent winners of the BMW Championship:

• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-27)
• 2020 – Jon Rahm (-4)
• 2019 – Justin Thomas (-25)
• 2018 – Keegan Bradley (-20)

Keep in mind, all of the aforementioned winners came from different courses. Wilmington Country Club will play host to the championship for the first time, experiencing a renovation to suit the needs of a PGA Tour course. More on the course in due course.

Here is a full list of the competitors at this event with the top 30 making the trip to East Lake for the Tour Championship and a big pile of cash. Cam Smith withdrew from the field this week citing hip issues but will find himself with enough points to make the Top 30.

J.J. Spaun currently rests in the 30th position before the tournament begins. Spaun could have been ranked second with a win last week. Sepp Straka, who lost in the playoff to Zalatoris, missed six consecutive cuts prior to last week. He now sits in eighth place. The point values are very important in the playoffs. Every shot will matter as all 70 players will play four rounds.

Let’s take a look at the course and how we would like to approach outrights.

2022 BMW Championship Betting Preview

• Course: Wilmington Country Club
• Date: August 18 – 21
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,534 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass

The PGA chooses another new venue for the BMW Championship in Wilmington Country Club. Aside from the outlier -4 in 2020, the BMW Championship has seen winners 20 strokes under par or better. We don’t know too much about Wilmington Country Club except that it’s very long. Like Caves Valley last season, though, length does not mean difficult.

The Par-71 features three Par 5’s, two on the back nine but the likely more reachable Par 5 on the front. Players will see five Par 4’s from 450-500 yards with one sub-440 yard Par 4. Expect the Par 5’s to be the best chance at birdies.

Greens are bentgrass and average about 8,100 square feet in size. The greens are very, very large. We will look to three-putt avoidance amongst other stats.

Reports suggest the course is going to play long and soft. We will target SG: OTT, driving distance, and of course, SG: Approach. Given the history of layouts at the BMW Championship, I will err on the side of birdies and emphasize BOB% while including and incorporating putting and three-putt avoidance.

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2022 BMW Championship Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Cameron Young +2800 (BetMGM)

Save the stats. Save the model. Save the course fit. Forget all the media nonsense you’ve heard.

It is Cam time. We jumped on this ship a few weeks ago and regret nothing. Like Will Zalatoris bettors finally being paid off for their loyalty, we shall be rewarded for our faith in Cameron Young this week.

Cam sits second in his last 36 rounds in SG: OTT and second in SG: T2G. Given the length of Wilmington, Young’s consistency and length off the tee cannot hurt. He sits just behind Rory McIlroy in driving distance which will help if the course is indeed long and soft.

We cannot miss Young’s coming out party. I am already a little upset about the Zalatoris victory. I won’t find myself outside looking in this week. We will open with 1.5 units and hope for Cam’s first victory.

Cam Davis +7000 (PointsBet)

Cam Davis might share a name with Cameron Young at lesser odds but that doesn’t mean we should sell him short.

You’d be hard-pressed to find many options in this price range with Davis’ recent form. Cam has four consecutive T20 finishes highlighted by a 13th-place finish last week. Davis has been a very popular option over the last month in betting and DFS but for good reason.

While the field strength is way tougher than the fields we loved him in a few weeks ago, Cam is 12th in driving distance, 16th in total strokes gained, and 9th in birdies. Davis boasts a win on tour already but a victory at the BMW Championship would be a true peak in his early career. We will wager 0.6 units on the victory on PointsBet.

Wyndham Clark +15000 (DraftKings)

Clark sits in 70th position and will clearly be playing to win this week to punch his ticket to Atlanta.

Clark is 8th in driving distance and 10th in putting. His length and putting immediately put him in play as a DFS low-priced option and makes him worthy a cheap dart throw if we want to surround Cam with lesser-priced options.

A quarter-unit will suffice on DraftKings as Clark is our first of two longshots to keep the price of our card down.

Taylor Moore +15000 (DraftKings)

Moore enters the week needing a big performance to make the trip to East Lake. Sitting 62nd in points, Moore likely needs something special to qualify for the Top 30.

Moore is putting together a nice stretch of weeks with a 31st place finish last week and back-to-back Top 10’s in his previous two starts. Moore has been striking the ball well over his last 24 rounds ranking 21st in SG: OTT and 8th in BOB%.

We are grasping at straws here as the likelihood of a longshot taking this tournament down seems very unlikely. With that said, Moore’s recent form and need for a big performance makes a sprinkle worth it. We will use a quarter-unit on Moore.

We successfully kept this card very cheap which was my hope. We have the ability to add a couple additional outright bets or FRL bets. Of course, we could just keep it small because football season is quickly approaching. Good luck!

The BMW Championship Betting Card

Net Units FedEx St. Jude: -3.05 units

2022 Profit in Units: +43.575 units

Good luck this week, everyone. Check back on Twitter on Wednesday night for my final betting card and any insights.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn