Braves vs. Dodgers Odds, Picks & Prediction — Monday, August 30th
Braves vs. Dodgers Odds
| Braves | +175 |
| Dodgers Odds | -195 |
| Over/Under | 9 |
| Date | Monday, Aug. 30 |
| Time | 10:10 pm ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds accurate as of Monday at Caesars | |
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On Monday night, the Atlanta Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers will begin a three-game set at Dodger Stadium. Entering play, Atlanta has won 18 of their last 23 contests. Los Angeles has won 17 of their last 21 games. This evening, Drew Smyly will get the nod for Atlanta. He will be opposed by Julio Urias. Oddsmakers are expecting the Dodgers to win this battle between two of the hottest teams in baseball, pricing them as -195 favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Atlanta Braves
Smyly’s surface-level numbers leave much to be desired. His 4.54 ERA, 4.88 xERA, and 5.04 FIP on the season all rank worse than league average. However, he has been throwing the ball better of late, even though his underlying metrics have not yet manifested in better outcomes. In his last five trips to the mound, he owns a 27.3 strikeout-percentage against a 5.1 percent walk-rate. During this stretch, he still has an unimpressive 5.48 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP, but at least some of that damage is due to a terribly unlucky .361 BABIP against him. Smyly has an opportunity to turn in a decent outing this evening against a Los Angeles lineup that is largely boom-or-bust against southpaws.
Over the last two weeks, Atlanta ranks ninth in OPS and 12th in ISO. Against left-handed pitching in 2021, this lineup ranks 15th in OPS and 1st in ISO. When this team sees a southpaw on the mound, they rely heavily on the long-ball to generate offense. This could be a difficult recipe for success against Urias, who has not allowed a home run since July 21.
The Braves’ relief corps ranks 13th in FIP over the last month of action. Heading into the new week, Richard Rodriguez is likely unavailable today after throwing each of the last two days. A.J. Minter has thrown two of the last three days. Everyone else should have no restrictions or fatigue-related issues tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Urias has been magnificent in his first full campaign as a starter with a 3.17 ERA, 3.44 xERA, and a 3.34 FIP. He ranks in the 75th percentile or better in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, barrel-rate, walk-percentage, and chase rate. He also possesses some of the best spin rates in the game amongst qualified starters. In his last five trips to the mound, he has posted a 1.05 ERA and a 1.96 FIP. He is more than capable of another strong performance this evening.
Los Angeles has been struggling at the plate over the last two weeks—ranking only 26th in OPS and 15th in ISO. Their lineup also profiles similar to Atlanta’s against left-handed pitching, ranking 19th in OPS and third in ISO. This boom-or-bust approach makes for a highly unreliable output against southpaws.
Over the last 30 days, the Dodgers’ relief unit has the sixth-best bullpen FIP of any team in baseball. For an inexplicable reason, Manager Dave Roberts used Brusdar Graterol and Kenley Jansen in a 5-0 loss yesterday to the Colorado Rockies. Jansen has now thrown in back-to-back games and is almost certainly unavailable for tonight’s game. However, Corey Knebel, Blake Treinen, and a few other solid options are rested and should be able to close the door on a win, if needed in this one.
Picks
There is a healthy amount of unpredictability in a matchup such as this one, which features two offenses with a vast range of potential offensive output against left-handed pitching. Thus, bettors should proceed with caution, no matter how they choose to place their wagers on this contest.
Los Angeles has the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen, which makes them rightfully favored. The under has some value as well, considering that both Smyly and Urias have been throwing the ball well of late, and are both going against offenses that are known for disappearing against southpaws on occasion. Both of these bullpens rank in the top-half of baseball in FIP over the last month, which should also limit the run-scoring opportunities in the latter frames.
Pick: Dodgers ML (-195), Under 9 (-110)
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