Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Wednesday, August 18th

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-08-18 15:36:23

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews tonight’s Braves vs. Marlins matchup. Follow along as he breaks down the odds and deals a pair of free baseball picks for Wednesday night. Also don’t miss out on this ridiculouswelcome promo, a $5,000 risk-free bet from Caesars!

Braves vs. Marlins Odds

On Wednesday, the Atlanta Braves and the Miami Marlins will wrap up a three-game set at loanDepot park. The Braves won Monday night’s contest by a final score of 12-2 and used some late-inning magic yesterday in another 2-0 victory. Atlanta will send Charlie Morton to the mound today as they look for a sweep—which oddsmakers certainly expect to transpire, evident by -240 odds on the Braves. Morton will be opposed by Jesus Luzardo.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Atlanta Braves

Morton owns a 3.49 ERA, 3.46 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP through 24 turns in the rotation this season. He ranks in the 71st percentile or better in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout-percentage, and whiff-percentage.

He has been even more dominant over his last 11 starts—posting a 2.51 ERA and a 2.93 FIP. Sinec June 17, he owns a 29.9 strikeout-percentage and a 7.5 percent walk-rate. His 0.93 WHIP during that span is fantastic, as is his 4.3 percent barrel-rate and 32.7 percent hard-hit percentage. Miami has been swinging the bats better in August, ranking 15th in OPS over the last two weeks, but they have benefited from a good bit of favorable luck during this stretch with a .336 BABIP. It would not be surprising to see Miami’s lineup revert to a bottom-five offensive attack in the coming weeks, especially after that were shutout last night by a player who had not pitched in a big-league game in three months.

Miami Marlins

Luzardo was one of baseball’s most highly touted prospects as recently as this preseason. However, another year of poor performance at the MLB level has not only dampened his expectations—it also led to the Oakland Athletics giving up on him within their organization and trading him to the Marlins. In 123.2 career innings, he has posted a 5.31 ERA and a 4.93 FIP. In 2021, he owns a 7.52 ERA, 5.35 xERA, and a 6.27 FIP in 52.2 innings of work. His walk-rate remains incredibly high at 11.0 percent and his 1.71 WHIP is an indicator that he allows far too many baserunners to expect things to change in the near future.

Betting Picks

Luzardo was tagged for seven earned runs in 4.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies on August 7. On August 13, the recently-gutted Chicago Cubs attacked him for five earned runs in only 5.0 innings. If we include his last few appearances with Oakland, Luzardo owns an 11.32 ERA and a 9.61 FIP across his last 20.0 innings of work. It is unlikely that he all of a sudden finds success in this one against a dangerous Atlanta lineup that added a number of solid offensive pieces at the trade deadline.

Pick: Braves -1.5 (-126)

Last night’s game was a pitchers’ duel, ending 2-0. It would be shocking if there are not more runs scored this evening. Morton has the potential to neutralize Miami’s offensive attack, but Atlanta should have a field day with Luzardo. Once the bullpens get involved, there should be even more run-scoring opportunities with the Marlins relief unit ranking 22nd in FIP over the last month. Atlanta’s bullpen has performed far better, but they could be dealing with a small amount of fatigue if they call on Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, or Chris Martin for the second consecutive day. loanDepot park is often thought of as a pitcher-friendly place to play, but that reputation is earned more as a result of low-scoring day games. In night games, the park grades much closer to league average. Bettors should consider the over in this game.

Pick: Over 8 (-110)

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