Charlie Morton Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Tonight’s board is loaded with top end pitching, but the top projected pitcher on the board (by a fraction of a point) can be rostered for less than $10K tonight (less than $9K on DraftKings). Charlie Morton had been absolutely rolling, allowing two runs or fewer in seven innings in four of five starts with his season strikeout rate up to 27.3% before running into the Mets last time out. They homered three times against him on five barrels (one-third of contact), striking out in six of 24 PAs. Morton still has a 27.1 K%, but a 15.3 HR/FB and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. The home run rate wouldn’t be so bad for a traditionally ground ball pitcher, but Morton has just a 37.6 GB% this year. A 4.45 ERA is still well above estimators, but with an xERA and FIP still exceeding four. He also pitches in a hitter friendly park, but that’s where the bad news ends tonight. His top of the board projection has a lot to do with the matchup, as the Angels come to town without Mike Trout. This is an offense with a 97 wRC+ and board high 27.3 K% vs RHP this year. No other offense in play tonight has a strikeout split above 26%. Morton is not only the top projected overall arm on the board, but the top projected value on either site by a wider margin.

In fact, you’re probably not playing many pitchers who cost less than Morton on a single pitcher site. One exception may be Braxton Garrett in Pittsburgh. Striking out 11 of 24 Pirates in his last start and producing a 3.70 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all of his estimators behind a 17.2 K-BB%, Garrett is making people take notice. His velocity is up about a mile per hour, but inconsistently so, and some of his pitches are moving differently. The oddest part of all this is that he’s not getting any zone whiffs (91.8 Z-Contact%), but lots of chasing (21.5 Z-O-Swing%). The Pirates have an 85 wRC+ with the second highest strikeout split on the board (26.0%) against LHP. Garrett is less than $8K on either site, projecting as the sixth best FanDuel value, though more middle of the board on DraftKings. Projections may have not yet caught up with the changes in his arsenal though.

Considering some cheaper top projected values, who may fit into your SP2 slot on DraftKings, Spencer Howard projects as the second best point per dollar value on the board. His major league work has been awful this year. He has completed five innings in two straight starts, but has walked seven and struck out just six of 65 batters since returning with just a 4.1 SwStr%, while his velocity has dropped in each start. Include his April numbers and you’re looking at an 18.6 K%, 6.8 SwStr%, 93.1 Z-Contact%, 44.1 Z-O-Swing%, 92.2 mph EV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE without an estimator below four and a half. However, he did have a 30.8 K% in 46.1 AAA innings this year and is in Oakland tonight, which is a pitcher friendly park, inhabited by an offense with a 71 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP, while Howard is nearly free ($5.1K) on DK.

Kyle Gibson owns just a 17.1 K% over his last nine starts, dropping him to 19.8% on the season, but he also has six Quality Starts in that span because he’s not walking many either (6.4% season). His 46 GB% is a career low though and probably not what they want in Philly. His 4.35 ERA is above, but within half a run of all estimators. He lacks upside in a tough park, but is also cheap ($6.8K DK) in a favorable matchup (Cubs 98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), projecting as the second best DK value costing less than $8.8K.

Lucas Giolito has surrendered just a single home run and three barrels (4.6%) over his last four starts (86.2 mph EV). His fastball rate is down to 40% over this span with his K-BB increasing to 20.6%. The strikeout rate has been strong all season (27.1%), but the walk rate has been average (8.5%), while he’s still at a double digit barrel rate (10.4%). If 60% sliders and changeups is what it takes to drop his 4.69 more towards contact neutral estimators a full run lower, then he seems to be embracing the idea. He costs less than $8K, but the Guardians have a 107 wRC+ with a board low 17.7 K% vs RHP. Still a decent DK SP2 choice, he costs more than $9.1K on FanDuel, where he projects as a much more marginal value.

Lastly, though he doesn’t project very well, Patrick Corbin costs less than $6K and hasn’t been terrible recently. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. The Diamondbacks have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs LHP this year.

We can usually include $9K pitchers at the top of the board, but with six pitchers costing at least $10K on either site tonight, we’re probably talking more about middle of the board pitchers at $9K on Tuesday night. At least that’s the case in terms of cost, but some of your $9K (or even $8K) arms project better than some of the $10K ones tonight, placing them among the top values on the board. Luis Castillo snapped a string of four consecutive Quality Starts last time out, though he’s allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four now. The strikeout rate (22.9%) is a bit less than we normally see from him with a 49.6 GB% that’s also the second lowest rate of his career, but he’s still allowing just 5.6% Barrels/BBE and doesn’t have an estimator more than one-quarter of a run removed from his 3.71 ERA. He currently projects as a better value than any pitcher costing more than him tonight against the Cubs (98 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP), but he key word may be “currently”. PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change and one of the things that can cause these changes Is weather. Weather Edge currently suggests some massively hitter friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, which may end up adjusting Castillo’s projection downward at some point this afternoon if the forecast holds.

While Castillo costs less than $9K, Charlie Morton is a $9K pitcher who projects strongly tonight. Whatever was wrong with him for the first two months of the season appears to be ancient history. Morton’s struck out 40 of his last 100 batters (16.0 SwStr%) and also allowed just two runs (both solo home runs) over his last 14 innings (only his second and third Quality Starts for the season). Interestingly, he’s allowed five of his 11 home runs and six of his 16 barrels over this four game stretch, but is missing so many bats that it’s hardly been an issue. The start to the season was so poor that he’s still carrying a 4.84 ERA with contact inclusive estimators above four (15.1 HR/FB, .335 xwOBA), but is now up to a 26.7 K% on the season with a SIERA and xFIP closer to three and a half. He’ll be facing the Bryce Harper-less Phillies (98 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP) in Philadelphia. In the same price range, Brandon Woodruff gets a park upgrade in a high upside spot against the Rays (94 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP), but could face workload limitations in his first start back from the IL and Sean Manaea is down to a league average 21.6 K% and a 12.2 K-BB% since striking out a season high 12 Braves seven starts back, but does have 10 Quality Starts and faces a poor Arizona offense (85 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP)

Looking at a few SP2 options on DraftKings for less than $8K, J.P. Sears projects as the top value on DraftKings tonight, costing just $6.1K. Sears struck out five of the 21 Orioles he faced in his first career spot start and has not allowed a run over seven career major league innings (two relief outings). Although he carries just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), Sears has compiled an impressive 29.5 K-BB% through 39.1 AAA innings this year. The one trait that could hurt him in Yankee Stadium is below average ground ball rates. What really makes the projection here is his matchup with the Athletics (87 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP).

Whether out of the pen or while in the rotation, Ross Stripling hasn’t missed a ton of bats this season, though a 20.3 K% is at least respectable when paired with elite control (5.2 BB%) and a strong ground ball rate (53.2%). He did throw a season high 87 pitches last time out and should be fully stretched out. His xFIP, DRA and xERA are all exactly 3.48. That’s a pretty strong pitcher for $5.1K, regardless of the matchup (Red Sox 104 wRC+, 20.3 K% vs RHP). Stripling projects as the third best value on DraftKings.

It took a start for Shane Baz to calibrate, but he’s since struck out 13 of his next 41 batters and has struck out 33 of the 102 major league batters he’s faced in his career (regular season). The one flaw is that he’s also allowed seven barrels on 60 batted balls. This is too strong a profile for less than $8K in a favorable park with a marginal matchup (Brewers 103 wRC+, 23.7 K%, 14.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Workload may be a concern here though, as Baz hasn’t cracked 80 pitches yet in three starts.

Eric Lauer firmly established himself as a capable back end of the rotation starter this year. In fact, his 23.9 K% has helped project estimators in a tight range between 3.92 (xERA) and 4.26 (xFIP) that suggest even a league average pitcher. The actual ERA was quite a bit lower (3.19), due to a .249 BABIP and 79.4 LOB%. It has been 11 days since he last pitched though. With the Braves owning a 93 wRC+ vs LHP, Lauer could be considered an option today, especially on DraftKings for less than $8K. However, the leash is sure to be short with the Brewers facing elimination and only three batters in the projected Atlanta lineup exceed a 20.7 K% vs LHP this year.

While RHBs had a .278 wOBA and .300 xwOBA against Lauer this year, LHBs were actually better (.285, .309), although Freddie Freeman (103 wRC+, .170 ISO vs LHP) is the only projected LHB in the Atlanta lineup tonight. The Braves are the only team to reach 4.5 implied runs tonight in the most naturally positive run environment on the slate. Freeman and Ozzie Albies (144 wRC+, .262 ISO) may be two of the top bats on the slate, while Jorge Soler (126 wRC+, .287 ISO) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Travis d’Arnaud (127 wRC+, .179 ISO) is barely more than the minimum on FanDuel.

Charlie Morton struck out nine of 23 Brewers in Game One, but is on three days rest and was a late announcement to start Game Four instead of Huascar Ynoa. It’s fair to question how far the Braves will let a 37 year old pitcher go in this spot, but they’re looking to lay the hammer down with a chance to clinch and then rest for an extra few days. Morton is also just the fourth most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($7.8K) in a favorable spot (Brewers 92 wRC+ vs RHP), although only three batters in the projected Milwaukee lineup exceed a 21.3 K% vs RHP this season.

Brewer bats are tough to roster here with batters from either side of the plate between a .255 and .281 wOBA and xwOBA against Morton this season. However, Rowdy Tellez is the only projected batter below a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Willy Adames (124 wRC+, .221 ISO) is the best Milwaukee bat. Kolten Wong (108 wRC+, .182 ISO) may be the best value. One positive we can say about Milwaukee bats here is that they are cheap.

Although no single pitcher reaches the $10K price point on both sites on a 10 game slate on Wednesday night, there are two who reach that price point on each site, along with one more above $9K on both. Shohei Ohtani is the most expensive pitcher on the board, carrying a $10.5K price tag on FanDuel. He has made five starts since his disaster at Yankee Stadium and has walked as many over that span (four) as he did in less than one inning in that start. However, his strikeout rate is down to 24.2% (11.5 SwStr%) since then too with a 36 GB%, .224 BABIP, 80.5 LOB% and 2.7 HR/FB. His 2.91 ERA this year is at least a quarter of a run less than all non-DRA estimators. The Tigers have just an 89 wRC+, 25.9 K% and 12.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year. Four of nine in the projected lineup exceed a 28 K% vs RHP, all in the bottom half of the lineup, while the remaining five are all below 22%. The park is neutreal, but the umpiring situation potentially unfavorable towards Ohtani. He can certainly pull this off and costs nearly $2K less on DraftKings, but has exceeded six strikeouts in just two of his last eight starts. Maybe a dominant start shouldn’t be the expectation here.

Second most costly is Freddy Peralta, who is within $200 of $10K on either site, with a higher price on DraftKings. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board (34.5%) by quite a bit and has allowed more than two runs just three times this year. The only drawback is that he still only has 12 quality starts, which means they’re often being conservative with his pitch counts, but a 10.9 BB% has something to do with that as well. The Cardinals have an 88 wRC+ and 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP (9.6 HR/FB at home). However, there are just two batters above a 20.6 K% vs RHP in tonight’s projected lineup. Peralta does get a park upgrade to one of the most negative run environments in play tonight and should be considered one of the top pitchers on the slate, even if we can’t call him an exceptional value at current cost. Next up is Peralta’s opponent, Jack Flaherty ($10.1K on FanDuel, $1K less on DraftKings), who threw six shutout innings, striking out five of 19 Royals in his first start in over two months. He threw 81 pitches and the only negative was an 8.6 SwStr%. Flaherty is sitting on a 19 K-BB% over 12 starts this year with a 4.39 xERA, but all other estimators below four, though about a run above his 2.65 ERA (.231 BABIP, seven of 27 runs unearned). The current version of the projected Milwaukee lineup includes just four batters above a 20.2 K% vs RHP this season. At this point, Flaherty’s cost is probably a bit elevated and difficult to pull any value out of.

The last $10K pitcher tonight costs exactly that on DraftKings and $500 less on FanDuel. Even Lance Lynn wasn’t invulnerable to the Iowa corn sweat in Iowa. (It’s a thing) He allowed two home runs and four runs, but still struck out seven of 22 Yankees. This brings him up to an 8.9 HR/FB on the season. One slight concern is that his swinging strike rate has been 8.2% or lower in four of his last five starts, as his velocity has been down a bit, but it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate yet. The home run suppression, along with a .257 BABIP and 84.5 LOB% is running his ERA well below contact neutral estimators, though all are still below four. In a somewhat neutral run environment at home, he faces an offense with a 103 wRC+ vs RHP and a projected lineup including just two batters above a 20 K%. Lynn has only gone beyond six innings four times, but does have 12 quality starts in 21 tries. This is a tough one, but Lynn seems accurately priced. He probably won’t hurt you, but may not win a GPP for you either.

Charlie Morton is within $300 of $9.5K on either site and may be the most interesting pitcher and top value on this list. His last 11 efforts include nine quality starts, a 29.9 K%, just seven barrels, a 2.51 ERA, 2.93 FIP and 3.34 xFIP. A 3.66 SIERA is his only estimator above three and a half this year. Morton is no longer a five inning pitcher. In fact, he’s failed to record a sixth inning out in just seven of 24 starts and one of his last 11. His matchup? He faces the Marlins (90 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) in Miami. Five of eight in the projected lineup have at least a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. There’s a chance Morton competes with Peralta for the top spot tonight regardless of cost.

Charlie Morton has a 5.08 ERA and the Phillies don’t immediately jump out as a high upside matchup, while Atlanta generally plays as a positive run scoring environment, but now that we’ve gotten all that out of the way, let’s consider why he may still be one of the top values on the slate. Morton’s velocity is back up to 95 mph this year and his strikeout rate has increased to 27.5% along with it. His ground ball rate is also back up to 51.7%. His 87.6 mph EV is right on his career rate and one of the lower marks on the board today, along with 5.7% Barrels/BBE. All of his estimators are about a run and a half below his 5.08 ERA, due to a 65.1 LOB%. The Phillies have just an 80 wRC+ and 27.1 K% vs RHP this year. Even if Bryce Harper returns tonight, he’s the only batter in the projected lineup above a 108 wRC+ vs RHP since 2019 and only three are above a .180 ISO. Only two batters of the projected eight are below a 22 K% vs RHP over that span. Morton has already faced the Phillies twice this year (first two starts) and struck out 12 of 45 batters. Lastly, he costs less than $8K on either site. Morton has only completed six innings in half of his six starts, but has recorded sixth inning outs in five straight.

Charlie Morton is just third best on the board with a 30.4 K%, but also keeps the ball on the ground at a decent rate (48.2%). His 5.0% Barrels/BBE is only third best on the board, but the two pitchers ahead of him made just a combined 16 starts this year. He did have his worst start of the season against the Astros near the end of August (4 IP – 6 ER – 4 K), but then allowed a total of nine runs over five September starts after that. Saying that you’d rather be a RHP facing the Astros than a LHP is like saying you’d rather be stabbed than shot. This is still and offense with a 123 wRC+, 18.4 K% and 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP. The negative run environment in Tampa Bay helps somewhat. Considering park, cost (less than $9.5K), potential ownership and upside, Morton should be usable in GPPs, but he’s certainly not the safe play. Dangerous is the fact each of the first seven batters in the Houston lineup are at or above a 125 wRC+ and .219 ISO vs RHP this year and Jose Altuve owns those “low” numbers in both instances. While Morton has a bit of platoon split, LHBs are still below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It probably makes Michael Brantley (146 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP) and Yordan Alvarez (181 wRC+, .342 ISO) two of the more interesting plays in this lineup. The former is within $100 of $3.5K on either site. The thing to keep in mind in an elimination game is that the leash is going to be fairly short, almost no matter who’s on the mound.

Charlie Morton has wilted a bit down the stretch. His strikeout rate is down over the last 30 days (24.8%) with a 5.47 ERA, 4.36 SIERA and .313 xwOBA. The underlying metrics have been a bit better than the results and still a bit better than average. He hasn’t really been bad outside one beating in Houston over this span. His 30 K%, .278 xwOBA, and 5.0% Barrels/BBE are all top three marks on the board tonight. The Red Sox are not generally an offense that daily fantasy players like to roster pitchers against, but this is not the same lineup that’s produced a 110 wRC+ and 11.4 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Expected to remain without Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the projected lineup combines for a .336 wOBA, .189 ISO and 12.7 K-BB% vs RHP this season. Still not terrible marks, but they go from a well above average run environment to a below average one tonight under the dome in Tampa Bay. Morton may not have a ton of value as the third most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($11.1K), but costs just $9.5K on FanDuel, where four pitchers are at least $800 more expensive.

There are quite a few aces to pick from on this slate, and they all seem to have solid matchups and similar upside. One of these aces is Charlie Morton, who as at home in pitcher friendly Tropicana Field to face the Indians. As it stands right now, Morton has lowered his ERA (3.11) and xFIP (3.33) and raised his K% (30%) for the third straight year despite being 35 years old. He also has a career best SwStr at 12.6% and has lowered his HR/9 to 0.71 this year despite contending with juiced balls. The Indians have just a 94 wRC+ over the last 14 days and their lineup today will be without Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis and Tyler Naquin as well. The Indians will have just 3 batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .330 vs. RHP this year (Reyes, Lindor, Santana). Morton has also been a better pitcher at home: since 2017, he has posted a 3.75 xFIP, 17.8% K-BB and .298 xwOBA on the road compared to a 3.19 xFIP, 22.6% K-BB and .272 xwOBA allowed at home. The Indians currently have just a 3.35 implied total vs. Morton and the Rays.